Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Storms are already beginning to fire in north Georgia but are
generally staying below severe limits. The low clouds this morning
hanging on until 11am generally limited the amount of time that area
was allowed any deferential heating. The slight risk from SPC has
been expanded northward slightly but still well south of I-20. The
main risk still exists within this slight risk along the residual
boundary from the outflow last night. This is where parameters are
overall better for a strong to damaging wind threat. The lapse rates
are marginal at best so will likely not see a severe hail threat out
of these storms today. Winds will generally gust to around 20mph
today out of the west as temps rise into the low to mid 90s over
much of the area.

The front currently approaching north GA is expected to move
southward overnight into tomorrow morning which will result in an
overall pleasant day tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s
and dewpoints in the 60s. The dry air behind the front will also
lead to a rain free day tomorrow so enjoy it if you can!

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

No significant forecast concerns or weather impacts expected in
the long term period.

Mostly dry and slightly cooler weather pattern anticipated as
high amplitude upper ridge over the western CONUS and similar high
amplitude trough over the east, centered about 300 miles east of
the state, remains nearly stationary through Thursday with strong
NNW flow in the region. Shortwave traveling south in NNWly flow
over the Midwest on Thursday should help push longwave trough back
to the west and increase moisture into the area.

After this, still seeing ensemble consensus for upper low to slip
south into the northeast Gulf and travel WSW. Big system in the
NWUS also expected to kick upper ridge east into the Midwest so
warming temps and a bit more diurnal convection expected
continuing into the weekend. Can't rule out extreme heat here by
early next week if this pattern evolves as predicted with large
upper ridge moving into the OH and TN valleys. Low predictability
that far out even with good model consensus, so will do our best
to keep that thing away.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

TSRA has moves south of ATL and conditions are expected to improve
rapidly. Westerly winds are expected to become NW in the next few
hours where they'll stay though the TAF cycle. Winds will be NW at
less than 8kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High on all elements

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  90  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         69  89  67  88 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     61  80  57  80 /   0  10   0   0
Cartersville    66  88  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        71  93  69  92 /  40   0   0   0
Gainesville     67  88  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           69  91  69  90 /  30   0   0   0
Rome            68  87  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  88  66  88 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         72  92  71  90 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
532 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-192145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
532 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect along and south of I-20.
They are expected to form a line of storms across central Georgia
this evening and will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail in addition to frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon from Thursday through
Saturday across south central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
834 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Middle Georgia Regional 32.69N 83.65W
08/18/2024  M57 MPH          Bibb               GA   ASOS

            KMCN ASOS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
839 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ108>110-190130-
Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
839 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Dodge,
southwestern Telfair and southeastern Wilcox Counties through 930 PM
EDT...

At 839 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Five Points to Abba, and moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Jacksonville, Temperance, China Hill, and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Georgia. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect
until 200 AM EDT for central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3179 8304 3179 8305 3182 8311
      3181 8311 3181 8313 3182 8314 3182 8315
      3185 8318 3184 8321 3185 8324 3200 8317
      3208 8322 3202 8307 3198 8285 3178 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 296DEG 32KT 3211 8317 3176 8335

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
901 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Sandersville      32.99N 82.79W
08/18/2024                   Washington         GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed onto power lines in the
            1000 block of Jordan Mill Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
903 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Sandersville      33.01N 82.80W
08/18/2024                   Washington         GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree fell onto a home in the 100 block of
            N. Lake Drive.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
907 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Sandersville       33.01N 82.79W
08/18/2024                   Washington         GA   Emergency Mngr

            Several trees were downed along Walden Rd.

&&