Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
139 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

At a glance:

    - Wind Advisory in effect until midnight tonight for gusts to 35
    to 40 MPH areawide, higher gusts possible above 2000ft

    -  Showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
    ahead of approaching cold front

A cold front riding the leading edge of a mid-level trough will be
making its way through north and central Georgia this evening and
overnight. A narrow band of showers and embedded thunderstorms
associated with the pre-frontal trough will move southeastward
across the forecast area until just after sunset today. A
Marginal (1/5) Risk is in effect for portions of north and north
central Georgia, with surface-based instability currently progged
to be meager at best, on the order of 200-500 J/kg; additionally,
the 28/12Z sounding from this morning analyzed an impressive
capping inversion at 850 mb (~200 J/kg CIN). That said, cannot
rule out an isolated strong to severe storm for areas north of
I-20, with the primary concern being a sporadic gust to 60-65mph.
Best chances for any marginally severe impacts will be along
surges and breaks in the convective line. Even in the absence of
thunder, any showers will be quite gusty this afternoon as they
mix elevated winds aloft down to the surface (50+ kts/57+ mph at
850mb). A Wind Advisory is in effect for all 96 of our counties to
account for the potential to see gusts to 35-40 mph
-- and perhaps higher at times -- through midnight tonight.

A brief reprieve from active weather to follow tomorrow, with
surface high pressure filling in in the wake of the front. As the
center of this high slides across the mid-Atlantic, easterly flow
and in-situ wedging looks to develop, which will prevent us from
clearing out as meaningfully as we tend to do post-FROPA. Despite a
shift to more moist E/NE surface winds, the potential is there for a
marginal Fire Danger day. Will need to monitor dewpoint trends.

Rapid cooling will occur once the narrow convective band passes
through. Highs this afternoon are forecast to surge into the mid-70s
to lower-80s (10-17 degrees above average for late February).
Despite that, areas along and north of I-85 look to be in just the
upper-30s to lower-50s by 7PM -- a nearly 30 degree swing in just a
few hours. Lows tonight will be demarcated by frontal progression,
in the 30s north of a line extending from Columbus to Macon, and in
the 40s to the south. On Thursday, highs will top out in the 50s to
lower-60s, tamped down by the cooler airmass.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

At a glance:

-A wet pattern is expected through the long term.

-A low out of the gulf this expected to bring anywhere from a
quarter of an inch to an inch of rain to the CWA.

-A chance for wetting rain is possible every day in the long term
thanks to a series of stalled fronts across the SE.

Beginning Friday evening our rain chances pick up as a shortwave
moves through the weak upper level flow. An emerging low pressure
from the gulf and subsequent stalled front across the SE will bring
us an inch or less of rain between Friday and Saturday with the
highest values being confined to NE Georgia. Thunderstorms are
possible with this system, especially Saturday afternoon favoring
Central GA where instability is likely to be at least marginal.

Unsettled weather remains in the grids, but significant rainfall
totals are not expected and at this time flooding doesn't remain
much of a concern for the area. High temps are expected to dip into
the low 60s to mid 50s on Friday and Saturday but will rebound into
the 60s and low 70s come monday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s
and 50s aided by the abundant moisture we expect to stick around.
Might be a good week to keep the rain jacket handy.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

Primarily low-VFR to MVFR conds to continue thru 23-00Z, with
fairly quick improvements behind pcpn. Narrow band of
SHRA/embedded TSRA to impact metro TAF sites between 19-23Z.
Cannot rule out a brief pd of IFR and MVFR vsbys as the line
passes. Winds initially out of WSW/SW will shift to the WNW/NW
between 21-22Z, and remain sustained at 10-20kts with gusts to
30-35kts. Gradual slackening overnight to 7-12kts, then a shift to
the NE by 14-15Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precip evolution.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          35  57  39  47 /  20   0  60  90
Atlanta         36  57  41  48 /  10   0  60  90
Blairsville     28  54  34  47 /   0   0  50  90
Cartersville    31  56  39  49 /   0   0  60  90
Columbus        41  62  45  57 /  20   0  60  90
Gainesville     35  55  39  46 /  10   0  50  90
Macon           42  61  44  55 /  30   0  60  90
Rome            30  56  39  50 /  10   0  50  90
Peachtree City  35  58  41  50 /  10   0  70  90
Vidalia         46  61  47  63 /  50   0  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
909 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291415-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
909 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A narrow line of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms will
accompany a strong cold front moving through this afternoon and
evening. Brief, heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts are possible.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of north and central
Georgia tonight through Wednesday evening. Winds at 15-25 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph are expected. Higher wind gusts are possible
with rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Waves of rainfall, with a slight chance for thunderstorms, are
expected Friday through early next week. No severe weather is
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
244 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

GAZ021-022-032-033-045-282015-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-
244 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Cherokee,
northwestern DeKalb, southwestern Forsyth, northeastern Cobb and
northeastern Fulton Counties through 315 PM EST...

At 244 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was over Woodstock, or near
Mountain Park, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Canton, Mountain Park, Peachtree Corners, Sandy
Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Milton,
Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Sugar Hill, Chamblee, Holly Springs,
North Atlanta, Mount Bethel, and Hickory Flat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8466 3411 8466 3424 8449 3413 8409
      3411 8410 3400 8421 3400 8423 3399 8426
      3397 8426 3396 8428 3394 8427 3383 8438
      3408 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 314DEG 32KT 3412 8448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Cedartown         34.03N 85.25W
02/28/2024                   Polk               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Trees reported down near the intersection of
            Blanche Rd and Cherokee Cir.

&&

TV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Canton                  34.24N 84.49W
02/28/2024  M51 MPH          Cherokee           GA   AWOS

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

GAZ042>044-052-053-282030-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-South Fulton GA-
300 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Carroll, southwestern
Douglas, northern Heard, northwestern Coweta and southwestern Fulton
Counties through 330 PM EST...

At 300 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Abilene to near John Tanner State Park to near
Fosters Cross Roads, and moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Franklin, City of South Fulton, Villa Rica, Palmetto,
Temple, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Whitesburg, Ephesus, Centralhatchee,
Roopville, Chattahoochee Hills, Plant Yates, Seaton Lake, Fairplay,
Dunaway Gardens, Clem, Abilene, and John Tanner State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 8524 3376 8496 3352 8460 3335 8493
      3322 8525 3322 8526 3355 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 282DEG 34KT 3369 8507 3357 8519 3339 8558

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

GAZ022-023-033>035-282045-
Hall GA-North Fulton GA-Barrow GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
308 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Barrow,
southwestern Forsyth, northern Gwinnett, south central Hall and
northeastern Fulton Counties through 345 PM EST...

At 308 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was over Brookwood, or 7 miles
north of Peachtree Corners, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Peachtree Corners, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta,
Duluth, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Braselton, Auburn, Dacula,
Grayson, Berkeley Lake, Carl, Rest Haven, Thompsons Mill, Chateau
Elan, Brookwood, and Hog Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8381 3412 8381 3411 8382 3410 8380
      3402 8380 3389 8395 3403 8431 3416 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 280DEG 42KT 3408 8420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Dobbins Air Reserve Bas 33.92N 84.52W
02/28/2024  M53 MPH          Cobb               GA   AWOS

&&