Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

In the near-term, focus on the convection over central Georgia
will shift to north Georgia where CAMs are in good agreement
regarding potential area of storms/MCS moving into the state.
Surface instability and moisture are favorable, but with lack of
shear and necessary lapse rates, expect any storms today to
largely remain below severe thresholds. Although a downward trend
in intensity is expected with the loss of daytime heating, the
activity may not completely clear overnight.

A secondary frontal boundary will transition south and east
through tomorrow and will combine with other lingering boundaries
in the area to bolster convective development again tomorrow. With
more favorable conditions, expect more of the isolated to
scattered storms to be strong to severe. At this time, the main
threat remains south of I-20, and may be confined to more of an
area south of the Fall Line (Columbus - Macon - Augusta).

Temperatures Sunday will still reach the mid to upper 90s over the
southern two-thirds of the state. The combination of good
moisture/RH and these highs will produce triple-digit Heat Index
values over central Georgia. For now, these Heat Index values
remain sub-Heat Advisory criteria, but the forecast will continue
to be monitored.

Behind this activity, northwest flow will draw a cool, continental
airmass over the state for the long term.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Extended period forecast, while updated, has largely remained
unchanged. The previous forecast discussion follows.

31

Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

At a glance:

    - Mostly dry

    - Cooler mornings through the week

Behind the frontal passage on Monday, the key player in our sensible
weather through late week will be a constant stream of cooler, drier
air at the mid-levels -- fed by northwesterly flow on the lee side
of high amplitude ridging across the Desert Southwest. On top of
that, the southern fringes of a surface high centered over the Great
Lakes look to extend southward to the Gulf coast, locking into place
a relatively benign airmass. Backward trajectories show that the
aforementioned airmass settling across Georgia and much of the
Southeast originates from across central/eastern Canada. As a
result, and most excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially
across north Georgia -- through the long term, with lows each night
forecast to drop into the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will
similarly fall on the cooler side, though only marginally so, in the
mid-80s to lower-90s each day.

Rain chances will be minimal to negligible through Wednesday. From
then on, our surface high begins to retrograde northward, and a
weakness in mid-level flow develops in response to ridging shifting
slightly eastward aloft. With dry, northwesterly flow weakening, low
end chances for showers and thunderstorms will reintroduce
themselves across primarily south central Georgia to round off
the work week -- rainfall totals are likely to be sub-0.25" where
storms do form.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Convection firing over middle Georgia this afternoon has warranted
VCSH and TEMPO for -TSRA at KCSG and KMCN for the next few hours.
Short-term models are still bringing a complex of storms into
north Georgia early evening and moving it south over the Atl-metro
area. Have pushed back or added TEMPOs as appropriate for
activity 22-01Z, and this may be a touch on the early side. W-NW
winds at 6-10kt will drop to 4-9kt overnight, then increase to
7-11kt after 14Z. Low cigs may develop after 8-10Z, but widespread
MVFR clouds are not expected at this time, and have only included
FEW025 at a few northern TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of TSRA.
Medium on cigs after 06Z.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  68  90 /  30  20   0   0
Atlanta         73  92  69  89 /  50  30  10   0
Blairsville     66  83  61  81 /  40  30  10  10
Cartersville    70  90  67  88 /  40  30   0   0
Columbus        74  96  72  94 /  30  40  20   0
Gainesville     71  89  68  88 /  30  20   0   0
Macon           72  94  69  92 /  40  30  20   0
Rome            71  89  67  87 /  40  30   0   0
Peachtree City  71  93  67  89 /  40  30  10   0
Vidalia         73  95  72  93 /  20  30  40   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
241 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
241 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across portions of north and central Georgia. Some
storms may become strong to severe and capable of producing
isolated damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall. A Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across
a majority of the state. Some storms may become strong to severe,
especially south of Interstate 20, and capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail in addition to
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk (level
2 out of 5) is in effect for portions of central and south
central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Wood Station      34.79N 85.10W
08/17/2024                   Whitfield          GA   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree blocking both lanes of traffic
            near the intersection of Kala Wy and Old
            Ringgold Rd.

&&

TLV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
502 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ108-109-172130-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
502 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Dodge
and Wilcox Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Abbeville, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Rochelle, Browning, Antioch Church, and Owensboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8324 3185 8345 3204 8352 3208 8328
      3185 8319 3185 8321 3184 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 335DEG 17KT 3197 8331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
505 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Mill Creek         34.76N 85.09W
08/17/2024                   Whitfield          GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree reported down across the road near the
            intersection of Lafayette Rd and McArthur
            Rd.

&&

TLV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
508 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ093-172145-
Macon GA-
508 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Macon
County through 545 PM EDT...

At 507 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Clearview, or over
Oglethorpe, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Fountainville, Whitewater State Park,
Clearview, and Bartlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 8405 3218 8407 3219 8409 3220 8413
      3223 8414 3223 8415 3234 8424 3239 8401
      3226 8394 3225 8397 3222 8398 3220 8402
      3217 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 329DEG 9KT 3226 8407

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
513 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ102-103-172145-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
513 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Stewart
and southwestern Webster Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Kimbrough, or 7 miles
southeast of Lumpkin. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Weston, Troutman, Kimbrough, and
Westville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8467 3193 8468 3193 8469 3192 8469
      3192 8480 3193 8480 3192 8481 3192 8485
      3193 8487 3210 8479 3212 8453 3192 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 287DEG 3KT 3200 8469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
514 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GAZ008-009-015-016-172145-
Union GA-Towns GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
514 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Towns,
northeastern Lumpkin, White and east central Union Counties through
545 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Low Gap Shelter, or 10
miles southeast of Blairsville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Whitley Gap Shelter,
Robertstown, Blue Mountain Shelter, Mossy Creek, Low Gap Shelter,
Camp Coleman Lake, Vogel State Park, Anna Ruby Falls, Leaf, Smithgall
Woods Conservation Are, Blood Mountain Shelter, Sautee, and
Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8367 3481 8368 3479 8368 3476 8363
      3473 8362 3472 8364 3469 8364 3465 8366
      3462 8364 3460 8364 3456 8363 3455 8362
      3454 8362 3452 8365 3471 8397 3487 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 299DEG 22KT 3476 8384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH