Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Atlanta, GA

517 
WWUS52 KFFC 300149
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
949 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAC035-171-207-231-255-293-300159-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-240730T0200Z/
Spalding GA-Pike GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Butts GA-Lamar GA-
949 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SPALDING...PIKE...NORTHWESTERN
MONROE...NORTHEASTERN UPSON...SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS AND LAMAR COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8450 3327 8433 3335 8425 3334 8425
      3334 8415 3332 8415 3330 8413 3330 8407
      3331 8407 3310 8384 3294 8401 3285 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 320DEG 26KT 3314 8405 3306 8412 3298 8425 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
756 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Mid level water vapor imagery shows quite the swirl moving into the
NE CONUS as the low begins to merge with the upper level jet. Ridge
continues to build to the west of the area and a few disturbances
have been moving along the edge of it and between the upper low
across the northeast. For us, relatively moist airmass remains in
place, and with a favorable upper level environment and just a touch
of day time heating after the cloud cover broke, convection has
broken out nearly area wide. This should continue until a bit past
sunset this evening.

MLCAPE values have risen to 2000+ J/kg across much of the area, with
the exception of north GA which has had ongoing convection most of
the morning/early afternoon. Effective bulk shear remains low enough
to keep storms from getting too organized though a few severe storms
will be possible, especially with any storms that can develop some
cold pool dynamics. FFG is pretty low in many places, so it won't
take much to get some flash flooding - however, the northwest flow
overhead is our friend in some ways, as is keeping storms from
training over the same areas. Some isolated flash flooding will be
possible, especially in areas with traditionally poor drainage or
urban corridors.

Tonight into tomorrow, the forecast gets a bit more challenging.
Northwest flow remains in place. Convective guidance is picking up
on disturbance firing convection in the Ohio River Valley this
evening and pushing it southward. This line looks as though it will
push into the state during the early morning hours - the question
will be if it is still together and just how far south it will make
it. Traditionally the guidance can break these lines apart a bit too
fast, but also they can struggle a bit with the overall placement.
So, the current forecast shows PoPs during the morning hours across
a wide area, but this is more for uncertainty in timing and position
(or existence) of this line as it pushes into the CWA. How this
plays out will have big implications on how the rest of the day may
play out - potential exists for another line or more afternoon
diurnal convection, all dependent upon what happens in the morning.
Instability values will be quite high if the sun can get out and
cook things a bit, and enough shear will be present, so will need to
be on the lookout for some severe wind potential with this.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

By Wednesday morning, the sfc high and upper level ridging have
progressed eastward taking away much of the NW flow. Moisture
through the mid and end of the week will likely be dependent on any
MCS development which occurs over the next couple days. Dry air
behind any system that can get going could be dragged down into the
area, however PWATs will still likely remain above 1.5" for much of
North and Central GA. PWAT values of near 2.0" remain most likely at
this time. When combined with diurnal heating, the pattern will
return to our regularly scheduled scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
PoPs will remain below 50% through early next week, however locally
heavy rainfall may continue to be an issue on top of already
saturated soils.

The main thing to watch for in the long term outlook will be the
heat risk. Highs by Thursday will be in the mid 90s to near 100 for
much of the area. Dewpoints well into the 70s will see heat indices
of 104+ with some areas potentially reaching near 110.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Line of thunderstorms- some strong to severe- are presently moving
SE into the Atlanta metro area. Have strong storms in the TAFs
through 02Z, with showers lingering for a few hours thereafter. Other
strong storms are just NW of MCN as well as SE of CSG. With the
lingering cool pools from convection as well as abundant sfc low-
level and surface moisture, expect low clouds to one again form and
persist into the morning hours, with MVFR to IFR conditions at many
terminals. Fog development is also possible in recent rain areas.
Another MCS is forecast to dive SSE from the OH Valley late tonight
into Tue morning, but uncertainty is high whether this will affect
the Atlanta metro area or move more toward the GA/SC line.

Winds at Atlanta will be mostly light out of the W, although storm
outflows will bring gusty and erratic winds, with erratic directions
lingering after storm passage.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium regarding morning cigs and vsbys, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  72  97 /  30  40  30  30
Atlanta         72  93  73  95 /  30  50  40  30
Blairsville     67  87  69  90 /  30  70  50  50
Cartersville    72  93  73  96 /  30  50  40  30
Columbus        74  95  75  96 /  30  60  40  40
Gainesville     72  92  73  94 /  30  40  40  30
Macon           72  95  72  96 /  40  50  40  30
Rome            72  92  74  96 /  40  60  40  30
Peachtree City  72  94  73  95 /  30  50  40  30
Vidalia         72  93  74  96 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...SEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
and evening. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds may
occur, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Localized flash flooding will be possible across much of north
Georgia and portions of central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, can
be expected each day through Sunday. A few storms each day could
become strong to severe, capable of producing frequent lightning,
gusty to damaging winds, and heavy rainfall with localized flash
flooding.

Heat index values are forecasted to be 100 to 110 degrees across
much of north and central Georgia, with the exception of the
mountains, Tuesday through Sunday. Heat index values on the upper
end of that range are generally expected across east-central
Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
857 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Hinton             34.46N 84.64W
07/29/2024                   Pickens            GA   Public

            Power poles broken at Davis Rd W and GA 53
            W.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
859 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Menlo                   34.48N 85.48W
07/29/2024                   Chattooga          GA   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees down across Menlo.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
900 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Trion                   34.54N 85.31W
07/29/2024                   Chattooga          GA   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees down in the Trion area.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
901 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ078-079-089-300130-
Harris GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
901 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Muscogee, west central Talbot and eastern Harris Counties through 930
PM EDT...

At 901 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Hamilton, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Pine Mountain, Waverly Hall, Ellerslie, Midland, Cataula,
Baughville, and Pine Mountain Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8489 3272 8455 3255 8480 3272 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 306DEG 27KT 3276 8488

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
907 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 W Seney               34.08N 85.21W
07/29/2024                   Polk               GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Lake Creek Road between
            Drummond Road and Cantrell Loop.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
909 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Rome                34.26N 85.23W
07/29/2024                   Floyd              GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down at Burnett Circle SW and Burnett
            Ferry Road SW.

&&