Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weak frontal boundary will continue to push south across the CWA
this morning.

The front looks to currently be draped across central portions of
the CWA. A weak shortwave is also noted within the flow aloft, and
is likely helping to steepen lapse rates. Convection has picked up
in the last few hours, with a few strong storms. Getting some
indications of small hail within the storms, and with mid level lapse
rates averaging between 6-6.5 C/km, this trend will likely continue.
In addition, DCAPE across the southern portion of the forecast area
this morning is around 800 J/kg, and any strong storms that develop
will be gusty. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question. The primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. The
storms also contain frequent lighting. The front should continue to
move slowly south through the morning and scattered storms will be
possible until the boundary is south of the CWA. The front looks to
stall across very south GA or the Florida panhandle through the
remainder of the short term forecast period.

Behind this front, much drier dewpoints will settle across much of
north and central GA. Values in the lower to middle 50s will filter
southward today and remain in place through Tuesday. Temps right
around normal are anticipated for today and tomorrow.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday Morning through Sunday Morning.

Models continue to struggle with the long term outlook, so this
discussion will remain overall broad to explore forecast challenges.
A broad upper level ridge will make flow weak across the Southeast
and into the GoM. Models are still attempting to resolve a weak gulf
surface low with the potential to transport significant moisture
northward. The track of the low itself will have major implications
in the amount of moisture that is brought northward. Run to run
model variability on max PWATs has ranged from around 2.0" to as
high as 2.75". Again, dependent on the track and strength of the
broad surface low. A secondary factor to consider is the potential
development of the Bermuda High. Recent model runs have strengthened
the high, both pushing the Gulf Low westward, but also driving
northwest flow into GA. This effectively dry wedges much of GA and
could have some major implications to moisture availability across a
large portion of the CWA. Should the wedge like pattern develop,
PoPs will be relegated to the far southern portions of the CWA if
not outside the CWA all together. However, given the uncertainty in
the Gulf Low development will likely maintain low PoPs much further
into Central and North GA than models currently resolve. CAPE and
shear values do not appear all too impressive for this time of the
year so severe weather looks to be unlikely for now.

Temperatures will generally increase as we move through the week,
with highs climbing from the mid 80s up into the mid 90s. Given the
potential moisture, this could be the steamiest conditions we've had
so far this year.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR through TAF period. Any SHRA concerns have cleared metro TAF
sites. Cloud cover should fade through afternoon and remain VFR.
SKC tonight into tomorrow. NW winds will pick up to 7-12 kts,
lighter overnight, 6-10 kts tomorrow afternoon from NW again.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         63  86  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     54  79  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    57  84  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        66  90  66  92 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     60  84  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           66  90  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
Rome            60  84  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  60  86  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         70  91  70  92 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
456 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across central
portions of Georgia today. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the
question. The primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts.
However, hail and frequent lightning will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Georgia
Thursday, Friday or Saturday. The threat for widespread severe
weather appears low through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
219 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

GAZ109-110-101845-
Telfair GA-Dodge GA-
219 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Dodge
and northwestern Telfair Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 218 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Five Points, or 10
miles east of Abbeville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Rhine, Chauncey, Jay Bird Springs, Five Points, Achord, and
Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8321 3209 8325 3219 8301 3215 8299
      3215 8298 3195 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 249DEG 7KT 3204 8313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

GAZ111>113-101900-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-
226 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Toombs,
southeastern Wheeler and southern Montgomery Counties through 300 PM
EDT...

At 226 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Jordan, or 7 miles
south of Mount Vernon, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Uvalda, Ailey, Higgston, Alston, Center,
Toombs Central, McNatt Falls, South Thompson, Rock Springs, Cedar
Crossing, Jordan, Charlotteville, and English Eddy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and southeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8266 3214 8270 3224 8242 3197 8230
      3197 8248 3196 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 261DEG 16KT 3207 8260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH