Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across north
Georgia amid diurnal heating. Additional development is expected
through the afternoon as remnant boundaries as well as an MCV
associated with a decaying convective complex over northern Alabama
push into the area amid SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The strongest
storms could produce damaging wind gusts as well as instances of
hail through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
given PWATs over 1.5-1.7", particularly if any localized training of
storms occurs.

While some convection may linger into the evening, a general
decrease in convective coverage is expected during the overnight
hours with loss of heating. However, uncertainty increases by
Saturday morning as some CAMs (notably the HRRR) continue to
indicate the potential for an MCS to approach north Georgia. These
mesoscale features are notoriously difficult to forecast with regard
to timing and placement, so the Saturday forecast will greatly
depend on this potential.

For this forecast, chance PoPs were maintained across north GA
through the morning with a diurnal increase in PoPs into the
afternoon. However, if more widespread convection indeed does affect
the area in the morning, this could serve to lessen afternoon
development, at least across portions of north Georgia. The severe
threat would associated with any morning convective complex would
likely be fairly limited given a less-unstable environment, though a
threat for strong wind gusts can't be ruled out. Any additional
afternoon convection forming along remnant boundaries could pose a
more sustained severe threat if sufficient instability is realized
(depending on evolution of morning convection).

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front still on schedule for early next week.

Fast flow will likely remain in place across the CWA through early
next week. The mid level flow remains very conducive to strong
shortwaves/MCV/MCS features to move east within the flow through the
period. There are some slight differences within the 500mb pattern
between the NAM and GFS for Sunday. The GFS has a slightly stronger
shortwave moving across northern GA during the day, while the NAM
has some slight shortwave ridging. Will keep the highest pops along
the GA/TN/NC border and within the lower/mid chance category where
any shortwave ridging would be weakest.

A trough looks to move through the SE states later Monday into
Tuesday. This will be coincident with a frontal passage. There will
be plenty of surface instability and lapse rates will be pretty
steep. Shear looks to be marginal to decent, averaging between 35-
45kt. Do think convection could be a bit more organized as the front
moves through.

High pressure will build in behind the front for the remainder of
the week. Fairly quiet weather is expected.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Largely VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Sct
cu in the 4-6 kft range will characterize the afternoons. Patchy
MVFR cigs are possible 13-16Z Saturday, though widespread are not
expected. Sct SHRA/TSRA are favored, mainly at ATL area and AHN
sites, through this evening. While coverage is generally expected
to lessen overnight, iso SHRA/TSRA can't be ruled out overnight.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA is more favored again by Saturday, especially
after 16-18Z. Winds outside of convection will remain W to SW at
3-7 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA timing and morning cigs.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  67  91 /  30  30  20  30
Atlanta         68  88  69  91 /  30  40  30  20
Blairsville     61  83  62  85 /  50  40  30  40
Cartersville    66  87  67  91 /  40  40  30  20
Columbus        70  89  69  92 /  20  30  20  10
Gainesville     66  87  68  90 /  40  30  20  30
Macon           69  90  69  92 /  20  30  10  10
Rome            65  88  67  91 /  50  50  30  20
Peachtree City  67  88  67  91 /  30  30  20  20
Vidalia         71  91  71  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1116 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1116 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of north
Georgia today. A few storms this afternoon and evening may become
strong to severe, capable of producing gusty winds, hail,
frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day from Saturday
through Tuesday, with the greatest coverage of storms generally
across north Georgia. There is the potential that a few storms
could become strong to severe during the afternoons on Saturday
and Sunday, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall.

On Sunday night into Monday, there is a chance that strong to
severe thunderstorms could become more organized and numerous
ahead of a cold front advancing through the forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

GAZ036>038-050-242015-
Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
352 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Oconee,
southeastern Clarke, north central Greene and southwestern Oglethorpe
Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Barnett Shoals, or near
Watkinsville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Watkinsville, Lexington, Winterville, Crawford, Arnoldsville, Bishop,
Maxeys, Whitehall, Athens-Clarke County, Stephens, Hutchings, Barnett
Shoals, and Dunlap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 8345 3397 8329 3387 8301 3373 8307
      3365 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 310DEG 7KT 3386 8330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
408 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

GAZ039-051-062-242030-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
408 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Warren,
east central Taliaferro and southeastern Wilkes Counties through 430
PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cadley, or 10 miles
northwest of Thomson, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Norwood, Camak, Cadley, Raytown, and Mesena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8250 3363 8257 3364 8258 3363 8261
      3363 8262 3361 8262 3361 8265 3346 8259
      3341 8255 3344 8276 3363 8275 3365 8258
      3366 8252 3366 8249 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 257DEG 26KT 3357 8265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
412 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

GAZ013>015-021-022-242045-
Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
412 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Cherokee, northern Forsyth, southwestern Lumpkin, Dawson and
southeastern Pickens Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Reavis Mountain, or 11
miles southeast of Jasper, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Dawsonville, Ball Ground, Nelson, Free Home, Dougherty, Coal
Mountain, Hightower, Juno, Matt, Silver City, Chestatee, Oscarville,
Hollis Lathem Reservoir, Lathemtown, Ducktown, Reavis Mountain, and
McKee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8435 3439 8442 3453 8411 3442 8399
      3423 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 251DEG 14KT 3434 8430

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH