River Flood Warning 334, NWS Atlanta, GA

062 
WGUS82 KFFC 111643
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1143 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek at GA 9 near Cumming affecting Forsyth County.

GAC117-111745-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0334.000000T0000Z-241211T1643Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.241211T1135Z.241211T1345Z.241211T1532Z.UU/
1143 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Big Creek at GA 9 near Cumming.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:45 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 5.9 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8424 3417 8420 3411 8419 3410 8420
      3410 8425 3411 8424


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

 - There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe
weather in the southeastern counties of the CWA.

 - Winds this afternoon could gust up to 30 mph. Given the recent
   rainfall, trees may be more prone to falling.

 - A few light rain showers could occur, especially over north
Georgia, this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue across central and
north GA tonight. Some area in the southeast CWA could still see as
much as 1.5" of rainfall before the event is through. Northwest GA
will likely see little to no further accumulations. As the cold
front moves through this morning, precip should quickly clear out of
the area with clear skies on the backside. Given synoptic support
and shear, weak CAPE in the southeastern CWA will continue to pose a
low end threat of severe weather.

The mountains of north GA could see a flurry or two as cold air
quickly moves in. No accumulations are expected at this time and
wintry impacts are not anticipated.

Winds at 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30mph, out of the W and NW will
follow the cold front this afternoon. Given recent rainfall and
saturated soils, trees may be more prone to falling.

Conditions dry out in the post frontal air. Temperatures cool
Wednesday night back into the mid 20s to low 30s and frost will
likely be back on the table through the rest of the short-term
outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Friday & The Weekend:

The two features to watch over during this period will be a trough
lifting out of the Plains and a surface high over the Northeast. The
core of the trough looks like it will pass well to our north.
However as the trough axis swings through it may generate sufficient
mid and upper level lift to produce light rain showers between
Saturday afternoon and Sunday. The rain potential should be highest
in north Georgia. Guidance from the GEFS and EPS continues to favor
modest precipitation totals (0.01 to 0.25 inches). The surface high
over the northeast will be a significant driver of our local
temperatures because it will favor wedging in the lee of the
Appalachians through Sunday. The presence of the wedge should limit
high temperatures in northeast Georgia to the lower 50s Friday,
Saturday & Sunday, while central Georgia should warm into the 60s
over the weekend.

Next Week:

Ensemble guidance favors a fairly open storm track across the Lower
48 next week. This should lead to a series of fast moving and weaker
shortwave troughs. It is possible that one or more of them could
bring light precipitation to Georgia over the course of the week.
However meteograms of the EPS and GEFS members show a very high
degree of variance amongst the individual ensemble members when it
comes to precipitation timing. Thus while the odds of some rain
between next Tuesday and Friday are decent, confidence in the timing
of any rainfall remains very low. Forecast confidence in a shift
towards above average temperatures next week is higher, with the
majority of the ensemble members favoring above average high
temperatures between Monday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Mostly MVFR with some brief VFR conditions will continue to
improve through the morning hours. Precip has mostly moved into
east central GA, though a few sprinkle may still be had in the
metro. Winds will continue to pick up from the WNW sustained at 10
to 20 kts, gusting to 30 kts. Skies clear by the afternoon. Winds
drop below 10kts overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence cigs lifting and peak wind gusts. High
confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  32  52  32 /  80   0   0   0
Atlanta         50  32  51  35 /  40   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  25  49  29 /  60   0   0   0
Cartersville    48  29  50  31 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus        58  33  55  35 /  30   0   0   0
Gainesville     55  32  52  34 /  60   0   0   0
Macon           63  32  54  32 /  90   0   0   0
Rome            48  29  50  30 /  20   0   0   0
Peachtree City  52  30  51  32 /  40   0   0   0
Vidalia         70  34  55  36 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

The threat for localized flooding has largely diminished.
Isolated thunderstorms capable of gusty winds will be possible
this morning across east central Georgia, well south of the
Interstate 20 corridor.

Gusty conditions are expected this afternoon and evening, with
northwest winds approaching 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. With
recent rainfall and saturated soils, trees may be more prone to
falling.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.