Wind Advisory 10, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

447 
WWUS74 KEWX 250102
NPWEWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

TXZ183>187-202>204-217>219-228-251200-
/O.CON.KEWX.WI.Y.0010.240325T1600Z-240326T0000Z/
Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Maverick-
Zavala-Frio-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Del Rio, Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, 
Bandera, Brackettville, Uvalde, Hondo, Eagle Pass, Crystal City, 
Pearsall, and Carrizo Springs
802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas including the 
  southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande plains and western Hill 
  Country.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

481 
WWUS74 KEWX 250904
NPWEWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
404 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

TXZ183>187-202>204-217>219-228-260000-
/O.CON.KEWX.WI.Y.0010.240325T1600Z-240326T0000Z/
Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Maverick-
Zavala-Frio-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Del Rio, Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, 
Bandera, Brackettville, Uvalde, Hondo, Eagle Pass, Crystal City, 
Pearsall, and Carrizo Springs
404 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas including the 
  southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande plains and western Hill 
  Country.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1259 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The latest GOES 16 Channel 09 water vapor imagery shows plenty of
mid-level moisture moving over the state of Texas in advance of our
next shot at rain and storms Sunday night/Monday morning. Some
morning clouds can be expected today as surface moisture increases
ahead the approaching storm system progged to move in Sunday night.
Temperatures should warm nicely into the 70s for most, with some
lower 80s over the Rio Grande Plains.

As we head into Sunday night, the pattern begins to become a little
more active as an upper level trough sharpens to our west. A lead
shortwave along with a very strong (150-170kt) upper jet will move
out of Mexico into western Texas Sunday evening and overnight. As
the above features interact with the dryline in place over west-
central Texas, convection is expected to initially develop during
the very late evening hours on Sunday over the Edwards Plateau. As
the dryline is forced eastward by an advancing Pacific front,
additional convection will likely develop and move into the Hill
Country early Monday morning. While the threat for severe weather
should largely remain north of our region, the southern Edwards
Plateau and far western Hill Country are under a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe storms. This includes areas generally
along and north of a Rocksprings to Llano line. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main severe weather concerns.
Plateau. A powerful 150-170 kt jet streak at the 300mb level will
move over South Central Texas Monday morning, allowing for adequate
ventilation for any storms that form. As a Pacific cold front
associated with a deepening surface low over southwest Kansas slides
southeastward early Monday, thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary and overtake the dryline over the western CWA. Storms will
have ample deep layer shear to work with, on the order of 60-80 kts
of 0-6 km bulk shear. However, instability will be extremely
lacking, with only 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE available over the
Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. With that in
mind, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Level 1 of 5
Marginal Risk for severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning for
the region mentioned above. Ultimately, large hail appears to be the
primary hazard, especially with the elevated instability, albeit
limited.

Once storms move through Monday morning, we should see rapid
clearing behind the advancing Pacific cold front, along with cooler
and drier conditions. Minimum relative humidities out west over the
Rio Grande Plains are likely to fall to between 10-20%, and
factoring in the strong westerly to northwesterly winds arriving
behind the front, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
appear likely. Will be issuing a Fire Weather Watch for these areas
with concern for wildfires Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected across the
  Rio Grande Plains, Winter Garden, Edwards Plateau, and portions of
  the Hill Country each day

The main weather impact for the upcoming week will be the persistent
fire weather concerns out west. See Fire Weather Section below for
the details.

A broad upper level trough encompassing much of the CONUS on Tuesday
will tighten up and move across the Plains on Wednesday followed by
upper level ridging on Thursday. Meanwhile, at the surface, high
pressure eases into parts of our area Tuesday and lingers through
Thursday. Fair weather prevails Tuesday through Thursday due to
unseasonably dry PWs. However, forcing from the trough and a brief
increase of PWs may yield isolated showers over the Hill Country to
the I-35 corridor on Wednesday. Cool advection brings below normal
temperatures mid week, especially lows. Later in the week into next
weekend, an upper level trough moves into the western states to
deepen low pressure at the surface in the Plains. The resultant
southerly lower level flow and southwesterly flow aloft leads to a
moistening airmass, as well as, a warming trend to slightly above
normal temperatures.

For the TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE on April 8th, models are finally coming
into range at the 384 hour mark. The initial indications are that
high clouds are possible. REMEMBER, view the eclipse with proper
glasses prior to and after totality.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Cigs are beginning to rise, but will keep MVFR in place for another
hour based on observational trends. In addition, south to southeast
winds are on the increase and gusty conditions are in store for all
TAF sites through this afternoon. MVFR cigs should return back to
the I-35 corridor around 02Z as winds may tend to become a little
less gusty with the onset of boundary layer cooling. Cigs look to
stay east of DRT, so we will keep the forecast VFR overnight.
Attention will then turn to the possibility of some light showers
developing in advance of a dryline and eventually a Pacific front.
For now will only go with VCSH along I-35 beginning 04-06Z. As the
dryline mixes eastward and is overtaken by the Pac front, convection
is expected to move into the Hill Country around Midnight. Hi-res
models continue to show a fairly narrow time window when convection
will move across the I-35 terminals and we have tried to hone in the
timing on the latest forecast. We will continue to mention PROB30
groups, but could certainly need a TEMPO group at AUS and possibly
SAT and SSF. Once the convection moves east of the I-35 terminals by
mid-morning, winds will shift to the northwest and eventually west.
Gusty west winds are expected by late morning at the I-35 sites, with
DRT winds showing up 2-3 hours earlier.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A dry airmass filters into our area on Monday. Minimum humidities in
the teens and 20s are expected each afternoon across the Rio Grande
Plains, Winter Garden, Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Hill
Country. Breezy west to northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 40 mph are expected, at times, early to mid week in the
same areas. Although winds turn southeasterly later in the week,
initial humidity recovery will be slow to occur. This dry airmass
will in turn dry the vegetation further leading to increasing fire
danger and lowering percentiles of 10 hour and possibly 100 hour
fuels. In addition, these regions have had very little rainfall
recently. As a result, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
are expected midday through early evening each day. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for those areas for Monday. A combination of
Red Flag Warnings and Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are likely
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  59  77  48 /  10  70  40   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  58  77  47 /  10  60  50   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  60  79  48 /   0  50  40   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  55  73  43 /  10  80  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           84  57  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  57  75  43 /  10  80  40   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  58  78  49 /  10  40  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  59  77  47 /   0  60  40   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  61  77  48 /   0  40  60   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  60  78  52 /  10  50  30   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  63  80  52 /  10  40  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-250800-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
251 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
Sunday into early Monday for the Southern Edwards Plateau,
northern Rio Grande Plains and Western Hill Country. The main
threats are the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
Sunday into early Monday for the Southern Edwards Plateau,
northern Rio Grande Plains and Western Hill Country. The main
threats are the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Rio Grande Plains and
Southern Edwards Plateau Monday afternoon and evening. Elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions are possible each
afternoon Monday through Thursday, mainly across the Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.