Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all
counties in the watch but Val Verde. A severe storm in Kimble County
is moving slowly south and will move into portions of northwest Kerr
and northeast Edwards Counties over the next hour. Eventual
weakening should take place as the storm encounter increasing
convective inhibition.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Left mover from an earlier cell split over Mexico missed Val Verde
County and has moved into Crockett County. The right mover and
complex of other storms in Mexico will continue southeast. WoFS and
HRRR have caught onto this, and there is a potential these storms
could clip Maverick County around 8-9PM. Otherwise, we will watch
closely the complex of severe storms to the south of San Angelo as
they move south. WoFS indicate they could make it into northeast
Edwards and northwest Kerr County around 9PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over
the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this
evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our
CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have
chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across
the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be
strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should
dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will
shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the
afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer
temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through
north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front
and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in
the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in
the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are
possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to
early overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning
and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing
shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will
move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning,
with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining
into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day,
there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the
area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at
this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier
conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That
said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few
showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or
portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on
Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as
troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South
Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest
temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple
digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the
upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline
mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35
corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight
cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings are forecast to re-develop tonight
across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, along with drizzle and fog
in some areas. Ongoing TSRAs to the north and west of the region are
forecast to weaken late this evening and should not impact the I-35
corridor terminals. Earlier TSRA split missed DRT, and have thus
removed mention of TSRA from their TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  85  69  82 /  20  20  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  85  68  82 /  20  10  60  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  88  71  84 /  20  10  60  50
Burnet Muni Airport            69  82  67  80 /  20  30  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  91  72  87 /  20  30  70  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  83  67  80 /  20  30  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             70  88  69  83 /  20  20  70  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  86  69  83 /  20  10  60  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  85  72  82 /  20  10  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  86  71  83 /  20  10  60  50
Stinson Muni Airport           72  89  72  85 /  20  10  60  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
512 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
512 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain are possible
from late this afternoon through tonight for areas generally
along and west of the Interstate 35 and Interstate 37 corridors.
The main threats are damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue through the upcoming
weekend. A few strong to severe thunderstorms, as well as locally
heavy rainfall will be possible.

An early season round of hot temperatures is expected for the
middle part of next week. Highs will climb into the mid 90s with
highs in the 100 to 105 degree range over the Rio Grande Plains
looking more likely. Heat products may be needed Tuesday and
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.