Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
607 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms early this morning,
  mainly west of I-35.
* All hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a
  tornado or two.
* Storms will likely re-intensify this afternoon across areas north
  and east of Austin, with all hazards possible once again before
  storms push east of the area.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across the
Edwards Plateau early this morning along a Pacific front/dryline. The
storms will continue to progress south and eastward through the
remainder of the morning, though a gradual weakening trend is
expected as we get closer to sunrise due to an increasingly stable
low level airmass. Through the day tomorrow, the low levels will
begin to become more unstable due to diurnal heating, so a re-
intensification of storms is expected across mainly far northeastern
portions of the CWA. While storms will continue to push east of the
CWA Sunday evening and night, the surface front/dryline will retreat
back westward and allow low level cloud cover and some patchy fog to
develop during the early morning hours on Monday. We've been
advertising a low chance of PoPs across southern and eastern areas
during the day Monday as the atmosphere remains unstable, though
based off of recent CAM runs, it appears there will not be enough
surface or upper level forcing to generate much in the way of
convection. Therefore, we have trended PoPs even lower. However, if a
storm does manage to fire anywhere, it will be capable of becoming
strong to severe with a wind/hail threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves will move over Texas and the Plains
states in a west to southwest flow aloft. The dryline likely remains
across West Texas, though could move into Val Verde County on
Thursday. An upslope flow is expected over the Serranias del Burro
of Mexico most days. The recent model suite shows better chances for
a cold frontal passage on Friday/Friday night that retreats to the
north on Saturday. There remains uncertainty on this frontal passage
due to time of year being early May, however a stronger shortwave
does move over the Plains to give the front a shove. Otherwise, a
moist southerly lower level flow will prevail. These features along
with daytime heating should produce rounds of showers and
thunderstorms over most of our area. Forecast soundings show
generally high CAPE with some shear indicating a potential for at
least a few strong to severe storms, at times. In addition, elevated
PWs show a potential for locally heavy rains especially where storms
train or stall. Above normal temperatures prevail with the exception
of the front bringing temperatures closer to normal. Later updates
will fine tune the forecast during the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through south-central
Texas and will continue to push east into the afternoon hours. The
severe threat has diminished with the storms, though heavy rainfall,
lightning, and strong/variable wind gusts will remain possible. MVFR
cigs will be in place ahead of the line with rising cloud bases and
clearing skies behind the line. Widespread MVFR to possibly IFR cigs
will then redevelop during the early morning hours Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  69  88  71 /  90  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  66  87  67 /  90  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  68  88  70 /  90  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            81  65  86  68 /  80   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  66  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  65  86  66 /  90  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             88  64  91  69 /  70   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  66  87  68 /  90  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  71  85  71 /  80  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  68  88  70 /  90   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           84  69  89  72 /  90   0  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Gale

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
503 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
503 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across portions
of the Rio Grande Plains, Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and
Coastal Plains. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An unsettled weather pattern continues through next week with
potential for thunderstorms each day. Strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rains are possible across portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Manor                   30.35N 97.56W
04/28/2024                   Travis             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager sent pictures of a
            billboard blown over and an AC unit blown
            off the roof of a convenience store in
            Manor. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1109 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TXZ205-220-221-281700-
Bexar TX-Atascosa TX-Wilson TX-
1109 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Atascosa, west central Wilson and south central Bexar Counties
through NOON CDT...

At 1109 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Poteet, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, Pleasanton, Jourdanton, Poteet, Elmendorf, Leming, Sandy
Oaks, Buena Vista, Losoya, Southton, Canada Verde, Graytown, Thelma,
Amphion, Espey, Braunig Lake, and Brooks City Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2890 9857 2899 9870 2936 9842 2908 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 232DEG 21KT 2902 9854

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TXZ172-173-281745-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Williamson and central Burnet Counties through 1245 PM CDT...

At 1157 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Killeen to near Smithwick.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence and Mahomet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 9783 3089 9771 3051 9823 3094 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 228DEG 35KT 3099 9780 3062 9812

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
117 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TXZ220-221-281900-
Atascosa TX-Wilson TX-
117 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Atascosa and
southwestern Wilson Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 116 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Floresville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Floresville, Poth, and Graytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2904 9844 2924 9808 2906 9795 2900 9803
      2888 9839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 241DEG 12KT 2901 9826

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BRADY