Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

956 
WGUS74 KEWX 020034
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
734 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXC031-020315-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240502T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Blanco TX-
734 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN BLANCO COUNTY...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. A 
automated gauge 5 miles north of Blanco has recorded over 4 inches 
of rainfall the past hour. The expected rainfall rate is 3 to 5 
inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Blanco, Johnson City, Flugrath and Pedernales Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3006 9852 3007 9853 3008 9854 3009 9854
      3013 9858 3014 9859 3015 9859 3022 9859
      3028 9841 3028 9823 3006 9835 3003 9849

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...3-5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

RUNYEN

432 
WGUS74 KEWX 020130
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
830 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXC031-020315-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240502T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Blanco TX-
830 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN BLANCO COUNTY...

At 830 PM CDT, Local law enforcement reported flooding on Miller 
Creek Loop. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash 
flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Blanco, Johnson City, Flugrath and Pedernales Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3006 9852 3007 9853 3008 9854 3009 9854
      3013 9858 3014 9859 3015 9859 3022 9859
      3028 9841 3028 9823 3006 9835 3003 9849

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

RUNYEN

871 
WGUS54 KEWX 020255
FFWEWX
TXC031-020430-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240502T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
955 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Blanco County in south central Texas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 955 PM CDT, Local law enforcement reported flooding on Miller 
  Creek Loop. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain fell earlier this 
  evening. Flooding impacts will continue.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Blanco, Johnson City, Flugrath and Pedernales Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3006 9852 3007 9853 3008 9854 3009 9854
      3013 9858 3014 9859 3015 9859 3022 9859
      3028 9841 3028 9823 3006 9835 3003 9849

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

RUNYEN

618 
WGUS54 KEWX 020425
FFWEWX
TXC031-020630-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240502T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1125 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Blanco County in south central Texas...

* Until 130 AM CDT.

* At 1125 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain in Flooding on Miller Creek Loop has been 
  reported. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Flooding 
  impacts will continue especially over the Miller Creek Watershed. 
  Showers and thunderstorms are approaching the area and will move 
  over the warned area in the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional rains up 
  to 1 inch can be expected. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Blanco, Johnson City, Flugrath and Pedernales Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 9859 3015 9859 3022 9859 3028 9841
      3028 9823 3006 9835 3003 9849 3006 9852
      3007 9853 3008 9854 3009 9854 3013 9858

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CP

864 
WGUS74 KEWX 020628
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
128 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

TXC031-020638-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240502T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Blanco TX-
128 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 130 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR SOUTHERN BLANCO COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for a portion of 
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 9859 3015 9859 3022 9859 3028 9841
      3028 9823 3006 9835 3003 9849 3006 9852
      3007 9853 3008 9854 3009 9854 3013 9858

$$

CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible this
  afternoon through tonight with wind and hail the main threats.
  Isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
* Heavy rainfall and flooding will possible for the eastern two-
  thirds of the area.
* Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Hill Country, I35
  corridor, and Coastal Plains.

Mostly cloudy skies prevail across South-Central Texas this
afternoon with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Winds remain
out of the southeast with speeds near 10-15 mph on average. Starting
to see an uptick of shower activity across the area and as we
progress into the afternoon, high-res model guidance is all
consistently showing this activity growing in coverage and
intensity. Some of this should bring some locally heavy rainfall and
the possibility of a strong storms this afternoon and evening. The
WRF/ARW suite of the high res models are much more bullish with rain
amounts than the HRRR with some values near 5-7 inches in isolated
places this afternoon. The 18z HRRR shows some pockets of 1-3 inches
with the afternoon activity and think this solution should be the
most favored one. However, even with the light returns on radar,
activity is very efficient rain producers given PW values near 2
inches which is off nearly unheard of for this time of year.

The focus for shower and thunderstorm activity late this evening and
overnight will be out west as convection in West Texas possibly
moves into the northern two-thirds of the area. Could see some
severe storms with this activity with wind gusts then hail as the
main risks. Heavy rainfall will also be possible with this activity
with additional rainfall totals of 1-3 inches likely with some
possible isolated higher amounts.

We issued a Flood Watch earlier for portions of the Hill Country,
I35 corridor, and Coastal Plains through 7 AM. Given this moist
airmass it will not take much to produce heavy rainfall and will
likely see some locations see isolated amounts near 5 inches and
this could produce some flash flooding.

All activity should be mostly east of the forecast area after 10 AM
tomorrow with just some possible very isolated activity continuing
tomorrow during the day. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s for most
areas with some mid 90s near the Rio Grande. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep
southwesterly flow over TX through the end of the week. A series of
shortwave troughs will move through this pattern. Combined with
daytime heating this will generate chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Sunday
the upper pattern will become progressive and the trough will push
into west TX. This will mean chances for convection through the day
Sunday. None of this activity looks strong nor any rainfall
excessive. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf bringing
dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the first
half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with highs
reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the CWA and
upper 90s to near 105 over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Low confidence continues regarding the exact placement and timing of
rain showers and convection over the first 8 hours or so in the TAF
period, mainly at the I-35 sites (KAUS, KSAT, KSSF). KDRT best chance
for any convection is early in the period. Primarily MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected throughout the overnight into Thursday
morning at the sites but pockets of VFR and LIFR will be possible at
times. Expect for conditions to improve to VFR levels at all sites
from Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Winds outside from
convective influences should remain around 12 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  83  71  86 /  70  50  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  83  71  85 /  70  40  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  84  72  87 /  70  30  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            68  82  70  84 /  80  30  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  95  76  97 /  30  10   0  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  82  71  84 /  80  50  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             68  83  70  89 /  70  20  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  84  71  86 /  70  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  83  73  85 /  70  50  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  83  72  87 /  70  30  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           71  84  73  89 /  60  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Travis-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
317 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-022030-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
317 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern half of South Central
Texas through 7am Thursday. A few locations within the watch may
see upwards of 5 inches of rain by tomorrow morning.

Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rains are
expected this evening through tonight. The main threats are damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and flooding. A tornado or two is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern half of South Central
Texas through 7am Thursday. A few locations within the watch may
see upwards of 5 inches of rain.

Chances of thunderstorms continue Thursday through Sunday. Strong
to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains cannot be ruled out, mainly
Thursday and Friday.

An early season round of hot temperatures is expected for the
middle part of next week. Highs will climb into the mid 90s with
highs in the 100-105 range over the Rio Grande Plains looking more
likely. Heat products may be needed Tuesday- Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
609 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ188>190-020000-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Kendall TX-
609 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Blanco,
southeastern Gillespie and northeastern Kendall Counties through 700
PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flugrath, or near Blanco, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blanco, Johnson City, Stonewall, Rocky Creek, Flugrath, Hye, Albert,
LBJ State Park, and LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2998 9844 3003 9867 3035 9868 3029 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 190DEG 17KT 3009 9853

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RUNYEN