Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

An upper level trough across West Texas this morning is forecast to
continue to shear northeast today and tonight into Oklahoma, and
into the mid Mississippi River Valley Wednesday. Ascent will
continue through the remainder of the overnight and into the morning
across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where
scattered showers are currently ongoing. In the lower levels, the
broad area of low pressure that was off the mid Texas coast
yesterday is now near the coast this morning. North of this, an axis
of deeper low level moisture will continue to advect inland today,
with scattered to numerous showers expected to develop late morning
through the afternoon out of the Coastal Bend into the I-35 corridor
near San Antonio and northwest into the Hill Country and Rio Grande
late afternoon through the evening.

The moisture content of the atmosphere will remain anomalously high,
with precipitable water values 2.2-2.5 inches over the area. This is
over 2 standard deviations above the 30 year climatological mean for
this time of year. Given this, some efficient rain producers will
result in pockets of locally heavy rainfall. HREF indicates isolated
pockets of 2-4 inches of rain possible over the next 24 hours,
favoring the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande.

Drier air is expected to work into the the northern half of the area
on Wednesday behind a weak surface front, where precipitable water
values are progged to decrease to 1.7-2 inches. With the the better
upper level ascent shifting away from the area and drier air,
coverage of showers on Wednesday is forecast to be less, favoring
southern and western areas where better moisture is still pooled
south of the weak front.

Below normal high temperatures are forecast again today given the
increased cloud cover and rain chances. Slightly warmer conditions
are expected on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

Surface high pressure building into and across the Texas panhandle
is forecast to help shift the front farther southward from mid to
late week into South Texas. PoPs will gradually taper and focus
farther south as a result with the PWATs across the region slowly
decreasing from the north. The north-northeasterly flow at the
surface may slightly uptick as well. A slug of even drier air is
then forecast to arrive across South-Central Texas, the driest in
quite some time, from later in the weekend into early next week in
response to a shortwave advancing from the Red River towards East
Texas and the Mississippi Valley. This shortwave trough helps to
reinforce the north-northeasterly flow in place aloft. While the
afternoon highs are forecast to peak from the upper 80s across the
Hill Country to the low to mid 90s, anticipate a more refreshing
feel as dew points fall into the 50s by early next week. The mild
and humid overnight lows near the start of the period are forecast
to turn cooler and more comfortable for early next week with the
lows dipping into the 60s. A few valley locations in the Hill
Country could even start off in the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

Scattered SHRA activity is forecast to continue overnight across the
Hill Country and near the Rio Grande as well as closer to the Texas
coast. The SHRA activity is forecast to also develop into the I-35
corridor and Coastal Plains in the morning, becoming numerous across
much of south-central Texas in the afternoon with isolated embedded
TSRA. MVFR ceilings developing overnight and through the morning
hours, becoming VFR near and east of the I-35 corridor in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  74  92  74 /  60  40  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  74  91  73 /  60  40  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  74  92  74 /  80  50  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            83  71  87  70 /  70  50  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  75  89  75 /  80  70  50  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  73  89  72 /  60  40  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  73  89  73 /  80  60  40  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  74  91  72 /  70  50  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  74  91  75 /  40  30  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  75  90  75 /  80  60  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           87  75  92  76 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
239 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
today and tonight. A few storms could produce heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.