Wind Advisory 17, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
216 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Warm and windy conditions will continue through Saturday with the
strongest winds anticipated this afternoon and again Saturday.
Sunday through next week will feature breezy afternoons and
warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

UL low is centered roughly over the Four Corners this afternoon
with its jet basically overhead and deepening surface cyclone over
Eastern CO. With frontogenesis occurring across our CWA, it's
difficult to decisively conclude where the cold front is, but
based on temperatures it's probably toward the Continental Divide
as of 130PM. Dust sources have activated, so visibility is
degraded. Our wind event is well on its way and will continue
through the remainder of the afternoon. Current wind products look
good though our Texas counties have been a bit slow to respond.
We still think winds will continue to increase for this area.
After sunset, we should begin to see winds gradually subside while
dust settles. Friday will be a relatively quiet day in between
systems, but we'll remain at the base of the long wave trough with
a 990 mb surface cyclone over the OK Panhandle. No wind products
are anticipated, but the winds will create elevated to locally
critical fire conditions. Dust is also mentioned in the grids.

Saturday looks on pace to be another windy day. Another closed low
will take roughly the same path as today or perhaps a little
farther south. Main jet will swing through across the
International Border with a ~995 mb low expected to form over SW
KS. NBM values are only a few knots lower than today's event, so
more wind headlines will likely be needed. I will let current wind
products expire before any decisions on where and what type
(warning versus advisory) of headline is needed. Strongest winds
will be across East Slope areas and highest elevations. Gusts look
to range 40 to 50 MPH west and 50 to 60 MPH east, especially the
locations already mentioned. Blowing dust will also likely be a
concern again. The system also appears to have a bit better
moisture, bringing with it slight chances for showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm across the Gila. The Euro drags precip chances all
the way south to the International Border though it appears to be
an outlier.

On Sunday, we'll remain breezy as we remain at the base of a
trough. Main thrust of energy though will be well to our east, so
winds will be much lighter than the previous days. Sunday will
also be the last day of the forecast period with below normal
temperatures. Height rises will commence while weak W to SW aloft
becomes established ahead of a s/w that is expected to form to our
west. Moisture will try and slip in next week. Models now show
that happening Wednesday. We have reached the time of year when
models will often bring in false dry line intrusion in days 5+,
but that solution will disappear in later runs. We just have to
make it through Saturday before nicer albeit warm weather arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Wind will be the main story today and the subsequent blowing
dust. Speeds will continue to increase throughout early this
afternoon peaking with speeds of 20-30 knots and gusts of 40 or
greater, mainly from 250-270, veering to 270-300 after sunset.
These speeds will kick up dust with significant reductions in VIS
likely, especially at DMN and ELP. VIS may drop as low as 1 mile.

After dark, winds will gradually subside and dust will settle.
Skies will be SKC-FEW250 throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

FRIDAY...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL...Winds subside for
tomorrow, but will remain breezy, topping out in the 17 to 22 MPH
range. Min RH values will also be a bit higher thanks to cooler
temperatures. Nevertheless, the combination of wind and RH values
will still be enough to create locally critical conditions. No
fire headlines will be issued on this shift as it does not appear
a large enough area in each zone will consistently meet criteria.

SATURDAY...CRITICAL...Winds increase again for Saturday with
speeds almost as high as today, topping out 25 to 30 MPH. Min RH
values will drop into the lower and mid teens in the lowlands.
Thus, a fire weather watch is in effect for zones 111, 112, and
Texas 055 and 056. Portions of zone 111 will see a bit higher min
RH values, but given RFTI wind values of 4, any over-forecasting
of RH will lead to more widespread critical conditions.

REST OF PERIOD...LOW TO ELEVATED...Warmer and drier conditions
return Sunday and especially Monday onward. Min RH values will
drop into the teens Sunday afternoon and single-digits Monday
afterward. Wind is not expected to be a concern, however, as
afternoon speeds top out 10 to 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  56  82  57  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            49  77  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               49  80  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               45  77  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               33  53  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    47  77  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              41  67  41  60 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   45  78  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                44  77  46  68 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       52  79  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                48  79  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             50  82  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               48  72  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   51  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             48  77  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           53  78  55  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            44  77  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    45  79  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 49  78  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                47  76  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  40  66  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                38  64  40  58 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 36  63  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  38  68  40  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                41  74  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                42  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             36  67  37  59 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   38  71  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    42  74  45  66 /   0   0  10  10
Mule Creek               41  69  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  41  71  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   43  77  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  44  77  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           44  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  70  42  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ403-406>411-414-
     417-426-428-429.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ404-407-
     411-417-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NMZ111-112.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416-427.

&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown