Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An east push of moisture will bring storm chances to eastern
portions of the CWA this afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds and hail will be possible with storms. This strong east push
will also bring windy conditions to locations along the
International Border late tonight and into the early morning hours
tomorrow. Breezy winds will be seen again Thursday and Friday with
continued rain chances areawide. Lower chances for thunderstorms
exist over the weekend and early next week with gradual warming of
temperatures. El Paso could see triple digits again as early as
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An east push of moisture will continue to press westward
throughout the day today allowing for chances of thunderstorms
where very gusty and erratic outflow winds and hail are possible.
Best chances for thunderstorms will be in Otero and Hudspeth
counties. In addition, this push of moisture will bring windy
conditions to locations along the Intl Border and especially for
west facing slopes. Thus issued a wind advisory for El Paso
county, southern Dona Ana, and portions of Hudspeth county.
Uncertainty remains for western locations bordering AZ. Wind
speeds may reach to just under the 35MPH sustained wind speed
threshold but uncertain at this time if these locations warrant a
wind advisory at this time. A flood watch has been issued for the
Sacramento Mtns today as this is a very sensitive area due to
wildfires. Any good rain producing thunderstorms that falls over
the burn scar area could bring debris flows and flash flooding.

As an inverted trough pushes closer to the area this will allow
areawide rain chances to persist through Friday before rain shuts
off east to west late Friday. Very little instability expected
Thursday and into Friday which may mean more clouds with light
showery activity for the most part. However, bulk shear values of
around 30-40kts looks to be present west of the RGV on Thursday
allowing the potential for some stronger storms if they can get
going. Otherwise, we can expect a mostly cloudy day on Thursday
which will help alleviate the Borderland from the hot temperatures
we've been seeing. The NBM went with a value of 87F for the El
Paso airport on Thursday. The 25th percentile would be a value of
around 77F and the 75th percentile is around 83F. Clouds and
possible rain/thunderstorms expected but it does seem like the
25th percentile would be too low of a high temperature on
Thursday. Little confidence in high temperatures right now, so
just stayed with 87F. Either way, we can expect cooler
temperatures than what we'll see today.

Lingering rain chances possible over the weekend and through early
next week as an upper high pressure parks itself over the
Borderland. This also means a gradual warm up Thursday and onward.
We may see our next triple digit day in El Paso on Sunday where
triple digits will continue through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW050-OVC250. Currently the winds are light;
however, they will become breezy to low end windy 15 to 25 kts
with gust up to 35 kts and generally out from the southeast after
19Z across all of the terminals. There will be a brief decrease
in the winds 5 to 10 kts while out from the southeast between 07
and 13Z. There will be a few TS far east of terminals later this
afternoon and this evening that will not affect operations. There
will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Elevated fire conditions expected this afternoon for the Rio
Grande Valley and westward. Min RH values in this location will
be 10-13% and higher RH values will be seen to the east (20-35%).
An east push of moisture will continue to press westward today and
will bring breezy to windy conditions for locations along the
International Border early this evening lasting through Thursday
morning. However this should alleviate some fire concerns the
winds will be coupled with increasing moisture. Thunderstorms
possible this afternoon generally for the Rio Grande Valley and
eastward. Thunderstorms will be capable of very gusty and erratic
outflow winds and hail. This will make it quite dangerous near the
fire line of ongoing wildfires if thunderstorms pops in the
vicinity. Low chances of thunderstorms popping west of the Rio
Grande but if storms do form, storms will be capable of dry
lightning and gusty outflow winds.

A shift in the weather is expected Thursday as we can expect
mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and areawide rain
chances Thursday and Friday. Breezy southeast winds expected Thu
and Friday but min RH values stay out of critical thresholds
Thursday through Sunday lowering fire concerns. However, fire
concerns return as early as Monday as very warm temperatures and
mostly dry weather will be seen early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 105  76  87  75 /  40  40  50  60
Sierra Blanca            95  66  76  66 /  40  40  70  50
Las Cruces              103  72  88  69 /  20  20  40  60
Alamogordo              100  65  87  67 /  30  40  50  60
Cloudcroft               77  50  61  51 /  40  50  70  70
Truth or Consequences    99  71  87  68 /   0  30  30  60
Silver City              92  65  82  64 /   0  20  30  50
Deming                  101  70  89  68 /   0  20  30  60
Lordsburg                99  70  90  68 /   0  20  20  40
West El Paso Metro      101  73  85  72 /  30  40  40  60
Dell City                98  67  79  66 /  30  40  60  50
Fort Hancock            103  68  84  68 /  40  50  60  50
Loma Linda               95  65  76  65 /  40  40  60  60
Fabens                  103  72  86  71 /  40  40  50  50
Santa Teresa            100  70  85  69 /  30  30  40  60
White Sands HQ          100  74  83  74 /  30  40  50  60
Jornada Range           100  66  85  66 /  20  30  40  60
Hatch                   103  68  88  67 /  10  30  40  60
Columbus                100  72  88  70 /   0  20  30  60
Orogrande               100  70  82  69 /  30  40  50  50
Mayhill                  85  54  66  54 /  50  50  80  60
Mescalero                87  54  72  54 /  40  40  70  70
Timberon                 85  51  67  51 /  40  50  70  60
Winston                  90  56  79  56 /   0  30  40  60
Hillsboro                96  65  83  64 /   0  30  40  60
Spaceport                99  65  86  63 /  10  20  40  60
Lake Roberts             92  60  83  60 /  10  20  30  60
Hurley                   95  64  85  62 /   0  20  30  50
Cliff                   100  63  93  64 /   0  10  20  40
Mule Creek               93  66  89  67 /   0  10  10  30
Faywood                  95  65  82  64 /   0  20  30  60
Animas                   99  69  91  68 /   0  10  20  30
Hachita                  99  68  89  66 /   0  20  20  50
Antelope Wells           98  68  90  67 /   0  20  20  40
Cloverdale               93  68  87  67 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418>420.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

     Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for NMZ415-416.

&&

FORECASTER...36-Texeira