Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
212 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Daily thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the entire
period with Wednesday showing the highest probability for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will run near or a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The monsoonal pattern is well established with the presence of the
summertime subtropical ridge. The location of this ridge will be
what drives our weather for the period, and really the remainder
of the summer. Starting off, it's centered over the DFW area, but
with a ridge axis extending well to its west (and east), reaching
into our CWA. This pattern has worked to bring warm temperatures
aloft along with some subsidence as well as import drier air.
PWats were around 1.2" on this morning's EPZ sounding. Satellite
and radar are relatively quiet as of 1PM with just a few showers
over the Gila and Sacs as thermodynamics and dynamics are
presently limited thanks to the high. With that said, however, an
easterly push is expected to arrive this afternoon, moving east to
west, which will likely aid in thunderstorm development by adding
some low-level lift though isolated to maybe scattered coverage is
expected. Air mass wise, moisture and temperature (or in terms of
theta-e) advection will be fairly neutral, at least initially.
Temperatures for Sunday will be around 5 degrees cooler in spite
of the ridge continuing to nudge westward. The HRRR is showing an
uptick for thunderstorm coverage for tomorrow in spite of the
cooler temperatures. An easterly wave over Mexico was over
Southern Chihuahua as of typing this discussion with a trailing
vort max arcing toward the Rio Grande Valley of TX. The bulk of
this easterly wave looks to continue into the Pacific according to
the GFS, but the GFS and NAM show the trailing vort tube and
moisture forced northward into the CWA, which if true, would
provide subtle DPVA.

As we head into Monday, the ridge will begin making a slow trek to
the east while ridging strengthens off the Pacific Coast. For
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will climb some as today's air
mass retreats east while thunderstorm chances follow their usual
preference toward the mountains with at least isolated coverage
spreading into the lowlands. On Wednesday, the ridge moves far
enough east, a weakness/trough develops over NM between the
Pacific Ridge and subtropical ridge over the CONUS. Moisture will
center within this weakness, giving our entire CWA its best chance
for precipitation of the period. GFS shows PW values over 1.5"
while the ECMWF shows dew points in the mid 50s. Heavy rain and
flash flooding would be the main concern.

Drier air will try and push in from the northwest beginning
Thursday with models disagreeing on how far south it will go. The
other important thing about NW-flow is it opens the door for
disturbances to directly impact our CWA either via frontal pushes,
which is hinted at for next Saturday or DPVA, which usually stems
from features too subtle for models to pick-up this far in
advance. All that said, thunderstorm chances will continue as we
finish out the work week while temperatures hover near or just
above average. Looking at NBM temperatures for KELP, the spread
between the 25th and 75th percentile is as much as ten degrees by
next weekend, indicating the uncertainty of how much cooler air NW
flow will allow to push into Southern NM and Far W Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT110/250 becoming SCT to
occasionally BKN110/250. Winds will begin light and variable but
more dominated from the SE (100-130) as the afternoon progresses
with speeds around 10 knots and gusts to 20 knots. ISO to SCT
SHRA/TSRA are expected this afternoon area-wide, especially west
of the Rio Grande; however, confidence on timing and overall
probability of occurrence is too low to mention in TAF at this
time. RA+ with subsequent VIS and flight category reductions and
gusty winds would be the main aviation concerns. Subsequent
outflows will also likely require TAF amendments late this
afternoon and during the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Minimal fire concerns continue as we remain in a monsoonal
pattern. Temperatures are not expected to be as hot for Sunday,
which will allow for higher min RH values in the afternoon, only
falling into the mid 20s. Winds will remain light. Thunderstorm
development is expected again tomorrow afternoon with the HRRR
showing an increase in coverage than seen the past two days.
Regardless, convection will be favored in the mountains. The main
concern with any storm will be gusty winds. Thunderstorm coverage
and chances will decrease some for Monday and Tuesday before
increasing again Wednesday. Venting will range very good to
excellent for Sunday and good to very good for Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82 102  81 101 /  30  30  50  10
Sierra Blanca            71  94  69  94 /  20  30  20  10
Las Cruces               76  99  74  99 /  60  30  60  20
Alamogordo               69  96  70  96 /  30  20  30  10
Cloudcroft               52  73  53  72 /  30  30  30  30
Truth or Consequences    75  95  73  94 /  60  20  60  40
Silver City              68  90  66  88 /  70  40  80  60
Deming                   75  98  72  96 /  70  30  80  30
Lordsburg                73  97  71  94 /  70  40  90  50
West El Paso Metro       79  99  78  98 /  40  30  50  10
Dell City                73  98  72  98 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Hancock             77 101  74 101 /  20  30  30  10
Loma Linda               71  93  70  91 /  20  30  40  10
Fabens                   79 100  76 100 /  20  30  40  10
Santa Teresa             77  97  74  96 /  40  30  60  20
White Sands HQ           77  96  76  96 /  40  20  50  20
Jornada Range            73  96  71  95 /  50  20  60  20
Hatch                    73  98  71  97 /  60  20  60  30
Columbus                 76  97  73  96 /  70  30  80  20
Orogrande                75  96  73  96 /  30  20  40  10
Mayhill                  57  84  58  84 /  30  40  20  30
Mescalero                57  85  58  83 /  30  30  30  30
Timberon                 56  82  55  82 /  20  30  30  20
Winston                  63  86  61  84 /  60  30  70  70
Hillsboro                70  92  68  91 /  70  30  70  60
Spaceport                70  95  68  94 /  60  20  60  30
Lake Roberts             63  90  62  86 /  60  40  80  70
Hurley                   69  93  66  91 /  70  30  80  50
Cliff                    68  99  66  96 /  60  30  80  60
Mule Creek               69  93  67  89 /  60  40  80  70
Faywood                  70  91  68  89 /  70  30  80  50
Animas                   70  97  69  94 /  70  50  80  50
Hachita                  70  96  69  95 /  80  40  80  40
Antelope Wells           69  95  68  94 /  80  70  90  50
Cloverdale               65  90  66  89 /  80  70  80  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-410-411-427>429.

     Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.

&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown

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