Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
521 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Scattered storms can be expected the next couple of days with
temperatures remaining fairly warm. For Sunday into Monday, clouds
and precip will become more focused over far west Texas and along
the International border into New Mexico. High temperatures will
be below average for these days with some areas over the east not
getting above 80 degrees. Drier air starts to move back in for the
middle of next week with temperatures returning back to around 90
for the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Currently an upper high sits around the Great Basin while to the
SE, the Borderland is on the southwest end of an elongated trough
extending up into northern Manitoba. This trough will be the
weather player through the weekend, the question is to what
extent.

Tonight looks to be the most active as far as potential for strong
storms with heavy rain potential. Storms will be moving slowly and
there is modest shear around of around 25KTS which will allow for
storms to drop locally heavy rain and possibly be sustained for
some time. The strongest storms will move more quickly to the
south. HRRR has backed off on coverage over the eastern half of
the area and focusing more from the RGV to Deming. Other CAMs are
more equal opportunity. With a weak surface boundary around and
the upper trough combining with storm outflows, think scattered
coverage for much of the area looks most likely.

Going into the weekend, models showing agreement that Saturday
will be a down day, likely due to coverage of storms later today
even though we continue to have the upper trough lingering around
the International Border. Should still see storms develop over
area mountains with easterly low level flow continuing and even
areas across the south with the trough could see isolated to
scattered storms. High temperatures will be a little cooler than
today with mid to upper 80s common over the lowlands. Sunday has
some of the biggest discrepancies between models. Seeing a trend
toward a weak low developing somewhere in northern Mexico. EC has
remained consistent being further south, but NAM and especially
the GFS are further north and bring fairly widespread precip to
the southern half of the area. Looking at GFS ensembles, the
operational seems to be on the wettest/coolest side. There will be
a fair amount of cloud cover, at least south which will keep
temperatures below normal. MAV guidance is going 72 for a high
temp while the MET is 78 and NBM 84 at ELP. General trend is down,
but looking at records for this time of the year, 72 would be near
a record low high. Thinking around 80 looks reasonable for ELP,
but out towards Dell City, it may struggle to reach much above the
lower 70s with a better chance for all day cloud cover and rain.

The upper low lingers into Monday before dissipating as upper high
builds into the NM/AZ border region. Precip Monday should then be
mainly far southeastern areas ahead of trough/low with drier air
moving in from the NW. Even the EC is showing nice area of precip
Sun night into Mon for far west Texas into extreme southern NM
which is not common in the summer with the EC, so this leads me to
have a higher confidence there will be some showers overnight
compared to most nights. Temperatures will remain below normal
with highs similar to Sunday.

Upper high starts to really get reestablished by Tue/Wed which
will keep much of the area dry, only area that may see some precip
would continue to be far east. Temperatures will be warming back
up toward normal which is mid 80s to around 90 for the lowlands.
Another upper trough of which we are on the far SW side of will
move in Fri/Sat and bring an increased chance for showers out
east and some slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024
VRF conditions expected to persist through the forecast period. Showers
and thunderstorm activity is expected to become isolated around
the 03z to 04z time frame. Put in VCSH as any one TAF site may see
a brief shower before 04z. SCT060 to SCT100 to SCT250 to BKN250
expected to persist through the remaining evening hours, then
becoming SCT100 to SCT250 the rest of the period. Winds expected
to be N to E at 5-15 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024

A period of cooler and wetter weather, especially south and east,
is in store for the weekend. Temperatures on Sunday into Monday
may not get above the lower to mid 80s anywhere with some areas
out east remaining in the 70s. RH's will be in the 30s and 40s
through Tuesday before dropping back into the 20s by midweek. Best
chances for rainfall will be tonight areawide, then Sunday and
Monday mainly south and east of a line from Alamogordo to Las
Cruces.  Vent rates will be good through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  88  70  81 /  40  30  30  50
Sierra Blanca            62  80  63  73 /  40  40  40  70
Las Cruces               64  87  65  81 /  40  30  40  40
Alamogordo               61  84  62  81 /  40  30  20  40
Cloudcroft               46  63  46  58 /  50  30  30  50
Truth or Consequences    62  87  62  84 /  30  20  30  30
Silver City              56  79  57  80 /  30  40  40  50
Deming                   64  87  65  81 /  40  40  40  40
Lordsburg                62  87  63  85 /  30  50  50  40
West El Paso Metro       69  86  70  80 /  40  30  30  50
Dell City                65  84  66  79 /  50  40  30  60
Fort Hancock             67  87  68  80 /  40  40  40  70
Loma Linda               62  78  63  73 /  40  30  30  50
Fabens                   67  86  68  80 /  40  40  40  50
Santa Teresa             66  85  67  79 /  50  30  40  50
White Sands HQ           67  84  68  81 /  40  30  30  50
Jornada Range            62  85  62  81 /  40  30  30  40
Hatch                    62  88  63  80 /  40  30  30  40
Columbus                 66  87  67  81 /  30  40  40  40
Orogrande                62  82  63  79 /  40  30  20  40
Mayhill                  52  71  53  67 /  40  40  30  50
Mescalero                50  72  51  69 /  50  40  30  50
Timberon                 49  70  50  66 /  40  30  30  40
Winston                  52  79  53  77 /  30  30  30  30
Hillsboro                58  85  59  83 /  30  30  40  40
Spaceport                59  86  60  82 /  30  30  30  40
Lake Roberts             51  81  50  79 /  40  40  40  50
Hurley                   57  82  58  81 /  30  40  40  40
Cliff                    56  87  55  84 /  30  40  40  40
Mule Creek               55  82  54  82 /  30  40  30  40
Faywood                  59  83  60  80 /  40  40  40  40
Animas                   64  88  65  85 /  40  40  40  50
Hachita                  62  85  63  82 /  40  40  40  40
Antelope Wells           62  84  63  82 /  30  40  40  50
Cloverdale               60  83  61  80 /  40  40  40  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

FORECASTER...41-Kelly

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