Storm Warning 3, NWS Eureka, CA

708 
WHUS76 KEKA 312233
MWWEKA

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Eureka CA
233 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

PZZ455-010645-
/O.CAN.KEKA.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240201T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KEKA.SE.W.0007.240131T2233Z-240202T0200Z/
Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena out 10 nm-
233 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very steep and hazardous seas 15 to 20 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena out 10 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or cause 
  damage to vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Recreational boaters should remain in port. Commercial vessels
should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in port
until hazardous seas subside.

&&

$$

PZZ450-470-475-010645-
/O.CON.KEKA.SE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240202T0200Z/
Pt St George to Cape Mendocino out 10 nm-
Pt St George to Cape Mendocino 10 to 60 nm-
Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena 10 to 60 nm-
233 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very steep and hazardous seas 16 to 21 feet.

* WHERE...Pt St George to Cape Mendocino out 10 nm, Pt St George 
  to Cape Mendocino 10 to 60 nm and Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena 
  10 to 60 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or cause 
  damage to vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Recreational boaters should remain in port. Commercial vessels
should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in port
until hazardous seas subside.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
523 AM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Winds are expected to remain elevated into the afternoon.
Heavy rain is expected through today which will bring flooding.
Periods of additional rain and snow are expected later in the
week with another system possible by late in the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system with a strong leading cold front
will continue toward the Pacific Northwest. This has ushered in
strong winds and an atmospheric river for Northwest California.
Moderate to heavy rain will continue through the day with
lingering showers into early Thursday morning.

Accompanying the strong cold front is a strong southerly coastal jet
at around 850MB, which is around 4000 feet AGL. The strong southerly
coastal jet, with winds from 70 to 80 kts, brought stronger winds to
the region as instability caused mixing of the winds to the
surface. However, mixing due to instability has diminished
slightly overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes, but winds and
rain are generally expected to remain elevated. Hi-Res models are
showing a strong convective line moving with the front onshore
this morning north of Cape Mendocino. If this occurs there is
still over 50 kts of wind at 2,000 feet and this may mix down to
lower elevations. This could be a secondary peak of the winds.
The winds are anticipated to diminish early this afternoon, but
winds will still remain breezy. The high wind warning has been
downgraded to a wind advisory for coastal Del Norte and Humboldt
counties and will expire into the early afternoon. The other wind
products remain the same and will also expire early this
afternoon, as well.

Rain will continue to vary between moderate and heavy throughout
today. This is especially true along the King Rang and farther south
in Mendocino and Lake counties. The ensembles are still in good
agreement on the strong moisture transport and this will likely
produce large terrain influences. Rainfall totals generally continue
to be 3 to 6 inches with local amounts up to 10 inches or so in the
King Range. It still looks like the biggest impacts will be with the
small streams and low lying areas as most of this rain is expected to
fall in 24 hours. General Flood Watches will continue for all areas
except northern Trinity County, which continues to have a Winter
Storm Warning. The high precipitation rates are expected to bring
snow levels down in northern Trinity county by midday. Heavy snow is
expected over 5000 feet with snow levels falling between 3500 to
4000 feet as the front passes tonight. Flood products are
mentioned in the Hydrology section below.

Late this afternoon and evening, rain is expected to start to taper
off on the Humboldt and Del Norte coast as the front continues
inland; however, rain is expected to persist longer in Mendocino and
Lake counties. By tonight, post frontal showers are expected.
There is a slight chance for thunderstorms with these showers, but
the airmass isn't cold enough to have much of a small hail risk.
Showers are expected to continue into tomorrow with snow levels
around 4,000 feet but rain and snow are expected to be much
lighter.

On Friday, another system will bring colder air to the region with
the rain and snow amounts looking fairly light. Snow levels are
expected to drop to between 2500 to 3000 feet which could impact Hwy
299, Hwy 36 and Hwy 3. Snow amounts are expected to be around 1 to 3
inches. This colder air is also expected to bring the potential for
small hail to the coastal counties. 500 MB temperatures are around
-30 to -32 C and 100 to 200 j/kg.

Saturday there is still a chance for some rain, but there could
be a bit of a break in the weather. Late in the weekend and into
early next week there could be another system with lower snow
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Southerly winds peaked overnight with gusts into the 40-45 mph range
at the coastal terminals and are now on a downward trend. There
remains another chance for a brief period of gusty winds as a cold
front moves through the coast this morning, but generally winds are
now anticipated to be lighter than was originally forecast. Rain has
spread over much of the area and has become heavy along the coast.
This rain will persist for the day today before finally coming to an
end this evening. Ceilings will fall through the day with MVFR
primarily being the worst conditions based on model soundings.
/RPA

&&

.MARINE...A very strong system continues to bring southerly storm force winds
across the coastal waters as of this writing. Quickly this morning
the cold front will sweep east and end the storm force conditions,
allowing winds to weaken and short period seas to subside. Thus, the
storm warnings look good to end later this morning. New products
will be needed with seas remaining elevated and a new west-
southwesterly swell building into the waters. This swell is likely
to be quite large, peaking around 20 feet overnight into Thursday,
and a hazardous seas warning will be needed. The swell will then
decay into Friday.

Another storm system will approach California on Sunday. Model
trends continue to move toward the area of low pressure moving
directly toward the Northwest California coastal waters and have
trended toward a stronger storm. If this trend continues the wind
forecast, especially in the southern waters, will need to be ramped
up significantly in future forecast packages with another chance for
storm force winds or high end gales late in the weekend and/or on
Monday. /RPA

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The forecast is nearly the same with widespread 3 to
6 inches expected and local amounts up to 10 inches in the King
range. The majority of this is expected to fall in less than 24
hours. This makes flooding of the smaller streams the largest
threat to the region. Some of the mainstem rivers will reach
flood stage. Currently this includes the Navarro River at Navarro
and the Russian River at Hopland. Flood Warnings have been issued
for these locations. The Eel River at Fernbridge is now only
showing around a 25% chance of exceeding flood stage. The Mad
River at Arcata is expected to rise rapidly, but at this point
only has a 5 percent chance of reaching flood stage. MKK

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A large westerly swell will build into the waters later today,
peaking around 20 feet in the open ocean tonight. This will result
in breaking waves between 20 and 23 feet along the entire Northwest
California coast from around 10 pm tonight to 10 pm on Thursday. A
high surf advisory has been issued to cover this hazard.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for CAZ101>106-109-110-
     112-113.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ101-103-
     108>113.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Thursday for CAZ101-103-104-109.

     High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ102-
     104>107.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to noon PST
     Thursday for CAZ107.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for CAZ108-111-114-115.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ114-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Storm Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for PZZ450-470.

     Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ455-475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1207 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NW Fortuna            40.60N 124.16W
01/31/2024                   Humboldt           CA   Utility Company

            Power outage due to storm to rough 100
            customers around Fortuna.

&&

JHW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1210 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 NNE Redway            40.17N 123.78W
01/31/2024                   Humboldt           CA   Dept of Highways

            Tree blocking 101 off ramp.

&&

JHW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1212 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 NNW Point Arena       38.93N 123.70W
01/31/2024                   Mendocino          CA   Utility Company

            Power outage due to storms to roughly 500
            customers around Pt. Arena.

&&

JHW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1213 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     Flood            1 E Rohnerville         40.57N 124.12W
01/31/2024                   Humboldt           CA   Dept of Highways

            Water flowing over Mill St. Near Fortuna.

&&

JHW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1214 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     Flood            1 SW Shively            40.42N 123.98W
01/31/2024                   Humboldt           CA   Dept of Highways

            Section of highway 254 closed due to
            flooding.

&&

JHW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1216 PM PST Wed Jan 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Landslide        9 WSW Comptche          39.24N 123.77W
01/31/2024                   Mendocino          CA   Public

            Rock and mudslide blocking Highway 1.

&&

JHW