Special Weather Statement, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
313 PM PST Fri Mar 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong winter storm will continue to spread across the
area. Snow levels will quickly fall tonight to near 1000 feet with
heavy snow on mountain passes. Widespread small hail is expected all
along the coast through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the area today have brought periods
of accumulating small hail and rain along the coast. Snow fell as
low as 2500 feet early this morning with 2 to 5 inches of snow
observed at Berry Summit, Oregon Mountain, and Buckhorn. More snow
has been observed at higher elevations with widespread chain
restrictions along highway 36.

As of late this afternoon, a strong line of thunderstorms and
associated cold front is approaching shore. This line is likely to
bring heavy small hail and winds all along shore and inland. Gusts
have already been observed near 50 mph Convective models show shower
coverage expanding behind the line with snow levels rapidly dropping
this evening. The GFS in particular well resolves a cold front aloft
behind the line with 500 mb temperatures dropping over 10 degrees
Celsius.

As cold air advects over the area and mixes down in showers, snow
levels are expected to drop between 500 and 1500 feet overnight.
Despite the cold air, moist onshore flow will most likely inhibit
any snow near sea level. As snow levels fall, 1 to 2 feet of snow is
expected on the highest mountain passes through the day on Saturday.
As cold air mixes down, 3 to 8 inches of snow is most likely on the
valley floor in Trinity COunty. These factors combined will lead to
challenging conditions along Highways 299, 199, 36, and 3. Even at
low elevations, 6 to 12 inches of snow remain most likely on the
highest elevations of Highways 101 and 20 as far south as Lake
County. There remains a good chance (50% chance) of 1 to 3 inches of
snow as low as Clear Lake.

Beyond snow, showers are expected to bring widespread small hail.
The threat for hail will be greatest late Saturday morning when
surface temperatures are coldest near the coast. Small hail on
roadways can create rapid and unexpectedly icy conditions. The threat
of small hail will be greatest in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties
but also extend all the way along the Mendocino coast. In addition,
showers will continue to bring gusty wind in excess of 45 mph in
exposed areas at least through the day on Saturday.

Most recent model runs have continued to pull QPF through the at
least early Sunday morning. Cold air stuck in valleys, especially in
Trinity County, may allow for light snow as low as 1000 feet again
early Sunday morning. 1 to 3 inches is again possible along Highway
101 with up to 1 foot of snow on high highway passes. Showers will
gradually diminish through early next week. Cold air moving further
east will allow for temperatures to once again gradually warm.
/JHW

&&

.AVIATION...Post frontal weather effects continued to keep somewhat pessimistic
conditions across the region today. Flight hazard impacts have been
quite significant at times for aviation, and sometimes acute at the
TAF sites. LLWS has tapered quite a bit. However, gusty SSE-SSW
surface winds remain fairly steady...especially at the Coast. By
late morning, Cig/Vis mostly improved from IFR/MVFR to VFR. Showers
and possible thunderstorms diminished through early afternoon, but
doppler radar indicated another bout of moving showers/thunderstorms
with embedded small hail moving over portions of the Del Norte/
Humboldt coast after 1 PM.  Tafs have remained a bit of a challenge
today due to persistent weather changes caused by a number of small
disturbances. Therefore, periods of adverse weather occurrences will
continued through Saturday. /TA

&&

.MARINE...WSW winds will remain strong today as showery conditions
continue. Stronger showers will bring gusty winds of up to 40 kts,
isolated thunder, small hail, and isolated waterspouts. Winds will
begin to ease tomorrow, but will remain gusty as showery conditions
continue through the weekend. A large, steep swell has filled in
elevating wave heights to up to 20 ft. This swell will gradually
diminish Sunday and Monday, with wave heights dipping below 10 feet
on Monday.

A short lull in winds is expected late Sunday and early Monday.
Another system approaches the area Monday which will increase
southerlies and bring steep wind waves once again. JDB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ101-
     103.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Monday for CAZ102-
     105>108.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ104.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Sunday for CAZ104-113-115.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Saturday for CAZ109.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Saturday for CAZ110.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ111-114.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-
     455-470-475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

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