Gale Watch 3, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
249 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Calm, seasonable weather will persist into Tuesday with
a chance of patchy dense fog likely along the coast and in inland
valleys overnight. A weak storm is expected mid week with a stronger
storm possible late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Flood waters have gradually receded all across the
are with most remaining road closures having been lifted earlier
this morning. Drier air visible on satellite has built in behind
yesterday's storm. This dry air is associated with a ridge of high
pressure building aloft. Despite advection of slightly cooler and
drier air, excessive moisture present at the surface has maintained
very high dewpoints, especially along the coast. The combination of
high moisture and stable air will most likely promote the formation
of widespread valley and coastal fog tonight, with patchy dense fog
possible. The risk of fog is especially high further north where
models suggest skies or more likely to clear.

Any fog and clouds will be slow to lift Monday with generally calm,
seasonable, and foggy weather persisting at least into Tuesday
morning. Model ensembles consistently show a shortwave and associated
surface low moving into the Central Oregon Coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. The exact strength of this low remains uncertain,
generating a wind variance in model outcomes, particularly for wind.
Currently, even the high end scenario from NBM (25 percent chance)
places peak wind gusts below 45 mph in exposed areas, limiting any
wind impacts. Additionally, this shortwave will have much less
access to moisture than the previous system, limiting overall
rainfall. NBM show most likely rainfall of 0.7 to 1.7 inches along
the North Coast, locally more in the Klamath mountains and less
further south. With the system moving further North under a ridge,
NW California will be solidly in the warm sector, generally keep
snow levels above 5000 feet and limiting the risk of any thunder.

After the brief storm, zonal flow looks to bring calm, seasonable
weather with light rain and drizzle for late in the week. Cluster
ensemble members consistently show a deeper trough forming over the
Gulf of Alaska late week into the weekend. Similar to the mid week
system, it's exact strength remains highly uncertain, though the
potential for high impacts is definitely higher. The high end scenario
from the NBM (25 percent chance) is showing peak wind gusts of 60 to
70 mph in exposed ares of Humboldt and Del Norte. Wind would be the
primary threat of this storms, the the range of rain int he NBM only
showing 1 to 2 inches. THough snow levels are likely to drop through
the storms with this pattern, even the coldest ensembles members
are suggesting snow levels near 2000 feet. /JHW

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy stratus lingers this afternoon. The terminals
will see periods of improvement to VFR, but conditions will remain
favorable for stratus formation. Light offshore flow will develop
tonight. Wind speeds may not be sufficient to fully thwart the
stratus development. Moreover, ample surface moisture will aid in
some patchy fog development. Fog has been included for UKI at the
18Z TAFs, with lower confidence elsewhere. The remaining coastal
terminals should see lowering VIS into the early morning hours. Fog
is possible at ACV as well, but confidence is low (10%).
Improvement is anticipated into the end of 18Z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have turned light and mostly from the north today,
while seas are working their way below 10 feet. Light easterly winds
will then develop overnight while seas trend lower. Seas will settle
at 5 to 7 feet on Monday as a small, long period WNW fills in. There
will be a brief risk for sneaker waves as the swell arrives, but
there looks to be enough fading mid period swell energy to mitigate
the risk.

Winds will begin a southerly shift on Monday afternoon ahead of
approaching low pressure system. Southerly winds exceed 20 kts by
early Tuesday morning, and will quickly increase to 30 kts into the
late morning hours. Gale conditions will develop in portions of the
waters, but the coverage and duration are still being assessed given
uncertainty in the strength/position of the surface low on
Tuesday.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png