Gale Watch 11, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
249 PM PST Thu Mar 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and cold mornings continue today and
Friday. A pattern change arrives Friday night as the first of
several shortwaves arrives bringing a return to wet weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Calm weather continues across the region today into
Friday. Breezy northerlies along the coast are expected to die down
late today and tonight will see fairly light winds and calm
conditions. Clear skies will bring a cold night across the area,
with temperatures inland in the 20s and low 30 in most of Humboldt,
Del Norte and Trinity counties. Low to mid 30s in southern Mendocino
and Lake Counties. Frost will be possible along the coast with
temperatures falling to the mid 30s. High temperatures will be mild
Friday, with highs in the mid to high 50s along the coast and in the
low to mid 60s inland.

The first of a series of storms arrive to the area on Friday night,
strengthening southerly winds with gusts of up to 30 mph along the
coast and up to 45 mph along ridges and exposed headlands, primarily
in Humboldt in Del Norte counties. Rainfall amounts are expected to
be meager with 0.25-1 inch expected in much of Humboldt and Del
Norte counties, with locally higher amounts of over an inch in the
mountains of Del Norte. Snow levels are expected to stay high,
hovering around 3000-3500 ft in Del Norte County and 4000 ft
elsewhere.

A stronger system arrives early Sunday morning, with stronger winds
expected. NBM currently shows a 50-90% chance of gusts greater than
40 mph around Humboldt Bay, and over a 60% chance of gusts greater
than 50 mph in coastal Del Norte. Lake County has a 50% probability
of seeing gusts greater than 30 mph. Rain amounts will be higher as
well, with 1-2 inches forecast for most of Humboldt, Del Norte, and
northern Mendocino counties, with lower amounts in Southern
Mendocino and Lake Counties of 0.25-0.5 inches. Locally higher rain
amounts are forecast in the higher elevations of Humboldt and Del
Norte. Snow levels will be lower with this system, especially Sunday
morning. Areas of Trinity county with cold air damming could see
snow levels of 2500 ft, with snow levels hovering around 3000-3500
ft elsewhere, which would impact areas of highways 3, 36, and 299.

More unsettled weather continues into next week, with more rain
Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty is high on the exact impacts. NBM
currently shows a 40-60% chance of another inch of rain in most of
Humboldt and Del Norte. The barrage of storms will give way to some
river rises, but main stem river flooding looks unlikely as of now.
A ridge builds in midweek bringing dry conditions and potentially
some gusty easterly wind, with temperatures rising to the 60s on the
coast and 70s inland. JDB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions have taken hold. Northwesterly winds are
generating gusts this afternoon in the 20 mph range. Winds will
quickly ease into the evening hours. A drier airmass is in place,
and this will be reinforced overnight as the winds turn offshore.
There is a small chance (15%) for low ceilings for around Humboldt
Bay and into KACV overnight. Confidence threshold is too low for
including a ceiling at this time. HREF hints at a period of lowered
VIS early Friday morning at UKI, but the quickly drying airmass
should prevent prevailing fog. Otherwise, widespread light winds and
clear skies can be expected on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...A series of storm systems will bring periods
of strong southerly winds and large swells this weekend and into
next week. Northerly winds are continuing to ease this afternoon for
most of the zones. Portions of the southern waters, particularly the
southern inners, where some gale gusts linger, will be slower to
subside into tonight. Winds will turn light through most of the
morning Friday as a small, mid period swell fills in. Southerly
winds will then increase by Friday afternoon, with patches of gale
strength gusts moving through Friday night.

A mid and long period westerly swell will build in on Saturday while
the winds briefly ease. Southerly winds will then quickly strengthen
Saturday afternoon, with strong gale to near storm force gusts
possible late Saturday into Sunday. The steep westerly swell looks
to peak near 18 foot at 15 seconds late Sunday. Another round of
southerlies is forecast Monday as the final storm system moves
through. An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure then looks to
build in late next week. The pattern will favor strengthening
northerly winds, with periods of offshore flow closer to the coast.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for PZZ455-475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png