Coastal Flood Warning 2, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
648 AM PST Fri Dec 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southerly winds develop ahead of an approaching
winter system today and tonight. Heavy Mountain Snow is
anticipated into Saturday morning, with lightning a possibility on
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Forecast was largely on track with a couple of noted
changes. First, HREF ensemble members indicate a near 100 percent
chance of wind advisory wind gusts (greater than 45 mph) along the
coastal headlands and windward ridges of western Mendocino County.
These winds take a bit longer to develop and longer to retreat
compared to areas farther north, so later timing of 10 AM to 10
PM is used for the advisory for Mendocino County. We will keep a
close eye on Lake County and interior Mendocino Counties, given
the south southeast wind component, and how models may sometimes
underestimate wind speeds in this scenario.

Also, notable instability will be in place early Saturday morning
in the 4AM to 10 AM time range for much of the CWA. So I added
some thunder during this time frame, except leaving out of areas
with heavy snow. I lingered the chance for thunder along the coast
into the afternoon.

Forecast is largely on track with precipitation/snow amounts and
timing, and for snow levels as well. These have been kept similar
to the previous forecast with snow levels generally down to around
3000 feet in northern Trinity County, perhaps dipping to 2500 feet
on Saturday. Precipitation comes to an end by Saturday night, and
drying out Sunday. Monday will bring another shot of rain, maybe
an inch or so. Ridging kicks in for Tuesday and Wednesday and will
help dry us out. /MH

&&

.AVIATION...A passing frontal system has arrived to the north coast
terminals. Rain, degraded visibilities, gusty fierce winds, and low
cloud ceilings are to be expected throughout the entirety of the
CWA today. Winds at 1500-2000 ft AGL are forecasted to build to
around 50-60kts by this afternoon, especially for coastal terminals
according to model soundings. Ceilings look to remain slightly
elevated and should remain so along the coast whereas inland,
ceilings are forecast to get as low as 500-1000ft AGL with OVC/BKN
coverage. /DS

&&

.MARINE...Significant wave heights will remain elevated
above 14 ft through the weekend. Southerly winds are forecast to
increase early Friday morning, as another strong front approaches
the area. Widespread gale force gusts of up to 45 kts are forecast
starting Friday, with isolated gusts up to 50-55 kts possible.
Hazardous seas with significant wave heights of 14 to 18 ft are
expected to be associated with these winds. Another large mid-period
swell is forecast to fill in Saturday even as winds diminish
Saturday morning. Conditions remain chaotic through the middle of
the week due to a series of fronts continuing to keep winds and seas
elevated. JB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A moderate to strong moisture flux or IVT's over 500
kg/m/s will result in moderate to heavy rain across Northwest
California late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Max
rainfall rates from 0.3 in/hr to 0.75 in/hr are forecast, with no
to minimal impacts over the burn scars. Minor flooding of small
creeks, streams and urban areas will be possible due to heavy
rainfall. The high tides are expected to exacerbate the small
stream flooding Saturday morning. The areal Flood Watch is in
effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Main
stream river will rise rapidly Friday evening. CNRF is forecasting
the Russian River near Hopland reaching flood stage (15 ft) at 5
AM PST Saturday and peak around 17 feet at 2 PM PST Saturday. The
Navarro River at Navarro is forecast to reach flood stage (22 ft)
around 2 PM PST Saturday and peak around 25 feet at 6 PM PST
Saturday local time. A localized River Flood Watch remains in
effect for both rivers. The Garcia River near Pt. Arena is an
additional area of concern for long lived flooding, due to river
rising rapidly combined with high astronomical tides and large
swell on Saturday. The Eel River at Fernbridge, and Mad River near
Arcata are expected to reach monitor stage; both show less than
20 percent chance in ensemble guidance of reaching flood stage.
-ZVS

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Large surf with breaking waves of 15- 20 feet
are possible through Saturday. Beach erosion is possible. Large
waves may occasionally wash onto roads and highways during high
tide. /MH, DS

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides continue into the
weekend. Higher tides today combined with strong southerly winds and
high surf could bring coastal flooding across the Northwest
California coast through the day and Saturday. Affected areas
include: King Salmon and other low lying areas around Humboldt Bay,
Pebble Beach Rd and Highway 101 near Crescent City, low lying areas
in Point Arena and Fort Bragg, and low lying areas along Highway 1
on the Mendocino coast. Heavy rains across the coast could
exasperate flooding and creeks and streams could back up as high
tide approaches. Tides are even higher Saturday, and even though the
strongest of the winds will have decreased, conditions remain
favorable for coastal flooding, especially as rain continues into
Saturday. /DS

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for
     CAZ101-109.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ101>106.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM PST this morning for
     CAZ103.

     Flood Watch from 2 PM PST this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for CAZ103-104-106-109>115.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ107.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ108.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening for CAZ109-110-112.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM PST this morning for
     PZZ415.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450-470.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for
     PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
812 AM PST Fri Dec 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     Landslide        3 ENE Shelter Cove      40.05N 123.99W
12/13/2024                   Humboldt           CA   Law Enforcement

            Rocks on road reported on Shelter Cove Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Eureka CA
854 AM PST Fri Dec 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     Flood            2 NE Ferndale           40.60N 124.23W
12/13/2024                   Humboldt           CA   Law Enforcement

            THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF COFFEE CREEK RD IS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

TDJ

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