Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon
  and evening. Timing has become a fair bit muddled. Storms are
  currently moving through NW MO and pre-frontal convection is
  moving into the KC metro. More robust storms are possible
  later this evening entering the KC metro and points south
  after 5-7PM.

- Primary hazards are damaging winds (70-80 MPH), isolated
  tornadoes, hail, and heavy rainfall.

- Active pattern continues into next week with multiple
  opportunities for rainfall anticipated.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing in across
northern MO. This line of storms has a history of producing winds in
excess of 90 MPH. Mesoanalysis shows little barriers for these
storms to slow down as CAPE values peak around 1000 J/kg and bulk
shear is more than enough to maintain updrafts. Storm motion and
bulk shear vectors remain parallel to the boundary reducing the
tornado potential with these line of storms. However, ample
kinematic flow in front of and behind the line indicate the
potential for destructive winds as these storms progress across the
region.

Overall the weather scenario is playing out mostly to expectations.
The front is moving eastward fairly slowly as the upper level wave
progresses across the foothills of the Rockies. Storm motions
however, are moving fairly fast, around 50-55 mph, along the
boundary. As the leeward wave progress more ENE through the evening,
the cold front is expected to accelerate toward MO.

Attention shifts toward areas south of US-36. Convection along the I-
70 and I-35 corridors is less organized at this time as convection
outpaces the front which is currently extending from St. Joseph
through Manhattan and Hutchinson, KS. Some convection is working its
way into the KC metro at the time of writing; however, this is not
expected to be the primary show. More organized storms are expected
behind these storms closer to the front. 850mb analysis shows 40-
45kt flow racing northward toward the I-70 corridor. Pre-frontal
winds across the region are gusting to 35-40 MPH as winds mix down.
Warm air and moisture advection into the region continues to
destabilize the environment; however, existing convection and
resultant cloud cover is slowing that destabilization. Bulk shear
and helicity values are a bit more favorable for tornadoes south of
I-70, but uncertainty in tornadoes remain. We will have to keep an
eye on this area over the next couple hours to see how storms
organize especially how the current convection along I-70 affects
the environment.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

A fairly succinct discussion this morning as active weather is
anticipated throughout the day. The LLJ this morning is invigorating
showers and thunderstorms across western MO. These storms are likely
to be subsevere, but may still bring some gusty winds and maybe some
small hail. While making a damper of the morning, these storms may
serve some assistance lowering the volatility of the atmosphere
across the area, especially northern MO, potentially lessing the
impact of stronger storms expected later today. We will have to
continue to monitor the environment ahead of the front.

The primary player in these strong to severe storms is the cold
front currently positioned across SE Nebraska and central KS. The
front is pushing up against a stout high pressure across the eastern
CONUS tightening the pressure gradient keeping winds gusty through
the morning. The resistance from the high keeps the front relatively
stationary through the morning. Southwesterly flow ahead of the
boundary is already sparking widespread convection across central KS
and SE NE. An upper level wave moves eastward this afternoon
providing the additional push necessary to progress the front
eastward. This frontal movement acts like a bulldozer across the
area lifting parcels upward continuing convection across the length
of the front.

Overnight winds kept warm air and moisture flowing efficiently into
the area. This additional influx of warm air and moisture tipped the
conditional instability a bit toward more unstable. Projected CAPE
values have increased to around 1000-1500 J/kg which create more
capability for storms to attain severe levels. Even though the
thermodynamic setup is relatively marginal compared to springtime
values, this environmental setup hinges more on the kinematic and
dynamic forcing. Ambient winds continue to gust around 30-35 mph
meaning storms do not have that far to go to attain strong to severe
levels. Damaging winds remain the primary concern; however, bulk
shear and helicity continue to suggest ample spin within the low
layer of the atmosphere which keeps a tornado potential present. The
more favorable environment remains west with ensemble consensus
suggesting eastern KS through Lawrence and points south. That said,
the synoptic momentum of this system may push things slightly
outside of those areas. As the evening progresses, instability
weakens and storms become more multicellular. The threat for
damaging winds and heavy rainfall continues overnight as storms
progress across central and eastern MO.

The extended forecast continues to remain active with the script
looking to flip from dry to wet. Long term guidance suggests the
potential for multiple inches of rain over the next several days. We
will have to assess the potential hazards and impacts after we get
through today's weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move
thru the TAF sites btn 00Z-02Z when vrb sustained winds of 30kts
and gusts to 45kts will be poss. Aft 02Z winds will be out of
the SSW btn 10-15kts with lgt rain showers. A cold front will
mov thru the TAF sites btn 04Z-05Z veering the winds to the W to
WNW btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts with MVFR cigs btn
1-2kft. AFT 17Z-19Z cigs will lift back to VFR with sct clouds
around 3-4kft and winds will subside to 5-10kts out of the W to
WNW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Pesel
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...73

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
450 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Some
storms may produce damaging winds and tornadoes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall is possible this weekend, particularly Sunday into
Monday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
740 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Clare              38.82N 94.88W
10/30/2024  M58 MPH          Johnson            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KIXD Olathe Industrial.

&&

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