Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY
839 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the
  overnight.

- Additional storms, some strong to severe, are possible
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An elongated broken band of strong to severe storms continue to
advance eastward this evening across central and eastern Kansas.
Storms are already advancing into our far NW CWA (Atchison
County) but this activity has been sub-severe and will likely
continue to weaken with eastward extent.

Farther south, a mixture of linear segments and supercellular
structures are being observed north of Manhattan/Topeka Kansas.
Reports of hail and even a tornado have been observed with these
storms.

Overall environment for surface based storms becomes less
favorable with eastward extent as SPC Mesoanalysis shows a
fairly strong MLCIN gradient near and east of the KS/MO borders.
Still, modest deep layer shear and elevated instability will
keep an organized storm threat going for the areas within the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Heat index values have dropped below criteria levels so the heat
advisory has been allowed to expire on time.

Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 has been issued for northwestern
portions of the region. Strong to severe storms have already
formed in portions of central Kansas and this activity will
gradually slide eastward through the remaining evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Earlier convection has pushed into central and southeastern
Missouri, with plenty of debris clouds limiting temperatures to the
upper 70s and lower 80s so far, but a very warm and moist air mass
lurks across SE Kansas and SW Missouri. PWAT values exceed 1.5
inches across eastern Kansas and there's an axis of 2" across
central Missouri. Expect a modest northward surge of the warmer and
oppressively humid air mass during the late afternoon hours, so the
Heat Advisory conditions could still be realized especially in and
south of the KC Metro.

Hi-res models suggest the effective boundary over central Kansas and
SE Nebraska will light up this evening between 00-02Z, with some
initial supercell structures possible. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates will support large hail, and there's a brief window for a
tornado threat, mainly north and west of St Joseph, before storms
congeal into a MCS that will trek across northern Missouri
overnight. Wind threat could continue as impressive DCAPE surges
north ahead of the incoming system, fading as you get farther south
and east of the I-35 corridor.

Renewed SVR threat on Thursday will depend on how quickly the
atmosphere recovers from overnight storms. Multiple disturbances in
the flow aloft could interact with a sfc cold front, and any
convection that does develop will feed off the instability and 30-40
kt of deep-layer shear. Will be another window of opportunity for
supercells and attendant tornado and hail threats, with damaging
winds as the primary threat to continue as storms organize.

By Friday a post-frontal NW flow takes over, with a modestly less
humid air mass building in. Still enough cyclonic curvature in the
upper flow to allow for some destabilization, so we can't rule out
more storms late in the day Friday.

A stretch of mostly dry weather begins on Saturday and continues
well into next week as an upper trof pushes east into the Great
Lakes and upper ridging amplifies along the Rockies. Sfc high
pressure will retreat from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes,
maintaining low-level easterly flow, which will result in near-
normal temperatures and seasonably muggy dewpoints. Convection on
the periphery of the high should remain focused over central
portions of Nebraska and Kansas and dive almost due south, leaving
western Missouri and northeast Kansas high and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Storms have begun firing off along a boundary across central Kansas
and will gradually push eastward tonight into our region. Expect
reduced cigs/vis in the heaviest showers and storms. Drier air will
work in behind the storms tomorrow morning and give way to some
clearing. Can't rule out additional storms developing late in the
forecast period as a cold front pushes through but confidence in
those remains too low to warrant mention at this time.

Winds during the forecast period will generally remain out of the
south through the morning hours (except in thunderstorms), but a
gradual turning to the west is anticipated as the front
approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

UPDATE...WFO Louisville
DISCUSSION...WFO Louisville
AVIATION...WFO Louisville

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