Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
159 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Complex of thunderstorms through Sunrise. Severe Winds Possible.

- Thunderstorm Chances Thursday into Friday.

- Periods of Hot and Humid conditions late week and next week,
  including July Fourth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

This will be a quick discussion as ongoing severe convection has our
primary focus. As of 1 AM, a line of storms continues to advance
southward across northwestern and central Missouri, racing toward
the lower Missouri valley by 2 to 3 AM. A second complex of storms
is developing in eastern Nebraska and is expected to track southeast
into northeastern Kansas and western Missouri behind this first
line. The current line of storms has become unbalanced on it's
western Flank, north of the KC Metro area, with it's gust front
well, nearly 10 to 20 miles, ahead of the actual convection. The
eastern flank has maintained balance and therefore continues to put
down reports of severe wind from near Chillicothe to western Macon
County. Additional storms have maintained along the KS/MO Missouri
Valley, with reports of 60 mph wind gusts. This activity appears
anchored nearer a surface boundary. Overall, this first MCS is
working with copious amounts of MUCAPE, over 3000 J/Kg and forward
prop Corfidi Vectors line up well with 0-3km shear, suggesting
continued forward propagation southward toward the Ozarks through
the early morning. Even with the progressive motion, there remains
concern for localized flooding, with several locations receiving
probably 3 to 4 inches of rainfall.

Looking to the northwest to Nebraska, as mentioned above, the
eastern nebraska complex of storms will be tracking southeast
trailing the current activity. Out ahead, it's working with 3500 to
4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, real classic MCS ingredients in place, with
shear - cold balance maintaining right now in southeast Nebraska.
Honestly, it's looking like it will follow the traditional 1000-
500mb thickness contours right along the axis of greatest MUCAPE
across northeastern Kansas and into the KC Metro Area through 3 to 4
AM. With that said, there is a lot of uncertainty in how the current
environment will be modified by the first round of storms. Overall,
given trends, storms will continue to build southward and wind will
remain the primary concern. The system appears progressive enough
the flooding risk will remain rather local, but any slowdown, we
could end up with training storms and increased risk of flash
flooding.

Precipitation should end by late morning, through 10 AM to the south
and southeast. Surface ridging will build in gradually behind, with
a reprieve from the hot and humid conditions we've had, with more
seasonable highs, in the mid to upper 80s. Mid-level ridging will
build over the mountain west, with surface high pressure continue to
settle into Thursday morning. A subtle short wave trough traversing
the ridge will bring increased chances for precipitation Thursday
night into Friday. A general weakening of the H500 ridge over the
southern Plains will result in increased return flow through Friday
and the Weekend, with off and on chances for showers and storms
through Saturday.

Looking far ahead, the week of July Fourth looks hot and humid. July
second and third could see heat index values approaching advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A complex of TSRA is moving southward from northern MO. Went
with VCTS immediately as there is some convective development
ahead of the primary line of storms. This may push the timing of
TSRA forward slightly. TSRA progress through the night exiting
around sunrise. Winds shift from generally southerly to
northerly behind the line of storms. VFR conditions return with
intermittent gusts during the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of
rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling
into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the
next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching
minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly
affected by updated information and additional rainfall around
the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Pesel
HYDROLOGY...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-260845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hot and humid conditions will send heat index values to around 105
 degrees Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight risk for severe
 thunderstorms late Tuesday evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 More hot and humid days expected later this week, with additional
 thunderstorm chances.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
136 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Savannah          39.95N 94.84W
06/26/2024                   Andrew             MO   Law Enforcement

            Trees down in Savanah.

&&

ak

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
158 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Savannah                39.94N 94.83W
06/26/2024                   Andrew             MO   Law Enforcement

            Trees down in Savanah.

&&

ak