River Flood Warning 121, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing showers and thunderstorms could further aggravate
  flooding threat. Additionally, some gusty conditions are
  possible.

- Another round of showers and storms are expected later this afternoon.
  Severe threat is based on conditions after ongoing storms.

- Flooding continues to be a concern with additional rounds of
  heavy rainfall possible over the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a surface boundary
and moved east through the region. A low level jet has intensified
out ahead of the boundary and nosed into western MO. The jet is
expected to veer east through the night. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed out ahead of the boundary. These
showers and storms have previously produced strong to damaging winds
but storms have weakened to where the severe threat has been
diminished. However, the main threat associated with these showers
and storms is flash and river flooding. The main areas that are in
the path of the most efficient storms are Wyandotte to Howard county
and south. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for these
counties and is in effect until 06Z Friday. There is some
uncertainty about how far north heavy rainfall will extend however,
rain accumulations are expected to be above 1-3" along and south of
I-70 with locally higher amounts. With already saturated grounds,
confidence in additional flooding is very high. These storms are
fairly progressive, but are still very efficient rain producers.

The line of storms is expected to continue to move further east
through the morning. Another round of convection is expected to
develop later this afternoon/evening with the passage of an upper
level trough to our north. There is a jet max at 300MB rounding the
base. Our area is in the right entrance region which places us in a
divergent quadrant of the jet. At 700MB, GFS keeps RH values above
70% through the day which could suggest significant cloud cover that
could hinder severe thunderstorm development. CAPE values ranging
from 1,500-3,000 J/kg across the area, lapse rates exceeding 7
degrees C/km, and bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots suggest a
prime environment for all severe threats. However, as previously
mentioned, severe thunderstorm development is based on the amount of
clearing behind the ongoing line of storms. Flash and river flooding
is still very concerning with additional rounds of heavy rainfall
expected. PWATs approaching 2" suggests the potential for another
round of heavy rain producing storms. We will continue to closely
monitor these threats and update forecasts.

Friday and Saturday are expected to be fairly quiet as winds shift
to the north behind the surface boundary. Rain chances return Sunday
as the pattern remains active. High temperatures are expected to
stay in the 80s through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms expected to remain through
later this morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected later this afternoon/evening. There is some
uncertainty with thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
amount of clearing behind these ongoing storms will be one of
the main factors. Winds will shift to the north later this
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ057-060-104-105.

&&

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
450 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday afternoon and
evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
308 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Raymore           38.79N 94.49W
07/04/2024                   Cass               MO   Emergency Mngr

            Roads flooding in Raymore including Dean Ave
            where 4-5 inches of water is over the curb.
            As well as flooding along Hubach Hill Road
            east of the school.

&&

73

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
408 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 AM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Greenwood         38.87N 94.38W
07/04/2024                   Jackson            MO   Emergency Mngr

            Highway 291 at Hook Road has water covering
            both north and south bound lanes causing a
            temporary closure.

&&

73

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