Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ray County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

844 
WWUS83 KEAX 170726
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
226 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>007-011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-
043-044-053-180000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0007.241017T1600Z-241018T0000Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-
Putnam-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Buchanan-
Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-
Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Bates-
226 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS 
FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS, WESTERN MISSOURI, NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zones 025, 057, 060,
  102, 103, 104 and 105. In Missouri, Fire Weather Zones 001, 002,
  003, 004, 005, 006, 007, 011, 012, 013, 014, 015, 016, 020, 021,
  022, 023, 024, 028, 029, 030, 031, 037, 038, 043, 044 and 053.


* TIMING...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* WIND...South winds 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...20 to 30 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

862 
WWUS83 KEAX 171811
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
111 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>007-011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-
043-044-053-180000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241018T0000Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-
Putnam-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Buchanan-
Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-
Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Bates-
111 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS,
WESTERN MISSOURI, NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zones 025, 057, 060, 
  102, 103, 104 and 105. In Missouri, Fire Weather Zones 001, 
  002, 003, 004, 005, 006, 007, 011, 012, 013, 014, 015, 016, 
  020, 021, 022, 023, 024, 028, 029, 030, 031, 037, 038, 043, 
  044 and 053.

* TIMING...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* WIND...South winds 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...20 to 30 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Kurtz

721 
WWUS83 KEAX 172354
RFWEAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024


KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>007-011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-
043-044-053-180100-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-241018T0000Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-
Putnam-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Buchanan-
Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-
Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Bates-
654 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS, WESTERN
MISSOURI, NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

Winds will continue to decrease through the evening hours as
temperatures cool down.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hard freeze expected until sunrise. Temperatures warm above
freezing region wide by 9AM.

- Gusty winds and low humidity Thursday and Friday create fire
weather concerns for both days.

- Precipitation chances delayed until Monday with those chances
remaining rather light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Freeze and fire are the two themes of the next few days. High
pressure and CAA aloft brings clear skies and enhanced radiational
cooling. Low temperatures this morning are expected to bottom out in
the upper 20s to low 30s with interior parts of the KC metro
possibly holding to the mid 30s with the urban heat island. Freezing
conditions are not expected to last long as the clear skies which
facilitated the freeze also enable solar heating to quickly raise
temperatures above 32F by 9AM across the region. Highs reach the low
60s today.

The tune shifts from freeze to fire as we enter Thursday. The
surface high continues its southward shift being pushed along by
north to south upper level flow. As it does so, winds shift to
southerly cutting off the CAA. Temperatures tonight remain chilly,
but not reach frost or freezing levels. This turn of the winds draw
warm air out of the desert southwest. It is important to emphasize
that this air will be dry as it is transported into the central
CONUS. Unfortunately this results in two things. The first is that
the prospects for rain get further delayed, and two, fire weather
concerns elevate. An upper level trough digs across the western
CONUS which compresses the pressure gradient across the foothills of
the Rockies and the central CONUS. This partially manifests as a
strong 850mb jet streak stretching from the panhandle of Oklahoma
into northern Minnesota. This vaults warm dry air across the region.
High temperatures rebound from the 50s and low 60s to the low to mid
70s. Antecedent ridging across all level above the region keep skies
relatively clear promoting diurnal mixing. This accelerates
southerly winds to around 15-20 MPH with gusts of 25-30 MPH
expected, especially across western and northwest MO and far eastern
KS. With the freeze Wednesday morning, it is possible that the mean
forecast parameters could be slightly underdone meaning that gusts
above 30 MPH are possible. Probabilistic guidance supports this with
NBM showing a 91 percent chance of winds >30 MPH and a 40 percent
chance wind gusts exceed 35 MPH primarily across far NW MO. Likewise
RH values minimize around 20-25 percent during peak heating which
when combined with the freeze drying out fuels, creates an
environment favorable for brush and wild fires. Burning is discouraged
Thursday and Friday. SPC fire outlooks put areas of far NW MO and NE
KS in critical fire weather.

The high drifts eastward and builds across the eastern CONUS at all
levels. This breaks down the jet streak lowering the warm and dry
air advection into the region. While all of this is going on a low
digs further into the desert SW. Earlier model guidance wanted to
bring the low, and associated rain, in this weekend. Unfortunately,
it is looking more likely that the eastern CONUS high will prevail
in resisting the low's eastward progression delaying any arrival of
rainfall.

A small upper level wave looks to be enough to heave the low into
our area bringing rain chances for Monday next week. Confidence
remains mixed that the rain will fully manifest itself. The eastern
CONUS high is forecasted to remain fairly strong and try to vault
the transient low to the north. There should still be enough low
level convergence and lift to get something, but QPF at this time
remains around 0.1-0.2 optimistically. This doesn't look to make
much of a dent in the precipitation deficit for the season, but rain
is rain, and any will be welcomed.

The good news is this small wave is enough to kick the eastern CONUS
high out opening up flow across the country. As mentioned yesterday,
there is a lot of variability in shortwaves and their accompanying
leeward troughs. The placement of systems in this run of the models
differs greatly from what was displayed 24 hours ago. That said, the
prospect of more waves bringing more opportunities for rainfall
is welcome.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period under clear
skies. Southerly winds on the order of 7-10 knots are expected
for today and tonight. SSW winds will increase by mid to late
Thursday morning, with gusts up to 25-30 knots continuing
through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0503 AM CDT WED Oct 16 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161003-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0503 AM CDT WED Oct 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Widspread sub freezing temperatures are expected early Wednesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated fire danger is expected Thursday and Friday with breezy
south winds and low relative humidities.