Tornado Warning 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

346 
WWUS53 KDVN 272334
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
534 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

ILC073-280015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240228T0015Z/
Henry IL-
534 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

At 534 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Geneseo, or 7 miles north of Cambridge, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Geneseo and Atkinson around 540 PM CST.
  Annawan around 545 PM CST.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 16 and
35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9027 4143 9027 4153 8986 4135 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 258DEG 28KT 4141 9019 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Gibbs

993 
WWUS53 KDVN 272342
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
542 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

ILC073-280015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240228T0015Z/
Henry IL-
542 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

At 541 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Geneseo, or 9 miles northeast of Cambridge, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Atkinson and Annawan around 545 PM CST.
  Hooppole around 550 PM CST.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 17 and
35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9020 4145 9020 4153 8986 4135 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 258DEG 28KT 4142 9011 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Gibbs

256 
WWUS53 KDVN 272349
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
549 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

ILC073-280015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240228T0015Z/
Henry IL-
549 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY...

At 549 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Atkinson, or 8 miles northeast of Cambridge, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Atkinson and Annawan around 555 PM CST.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 21 and
35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9014 4144 9014 4151 8986 4135 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 270DEG 25KT 4137 9006 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Gibbs

888 
WWUS53 KDVN 272351
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
551 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

ILC073-280015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240228T0015Z/
Henry IL-
551 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY...

At 551 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Atkinson, or 9 miles northeast of Cambridge, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Atkinson and Annawan around 555 PM CST.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 22 and
35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9010 4140 9013 4145 9011 4151 8986
      4135 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 270DEG 25KT 4137 9004 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Gibbs

053 
WWUS53 KDVN 272354
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
554 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

ILC073-280015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240228T0015Z/
Henry IL-
554 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY...

At 554 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Atkinson, or 10
miles northwest of Kewanee, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Annawan around 600 PM CST.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 22 and
35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 9010 4140 9013 4145 9011 4151 8986
      4135 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 270DEG 25KT 4137 9001 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Gibbs

430 
WWUS53 KDVN 280004
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
604 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

ILC073-280015-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240228T0015Z/
Henry IL-
604 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY...

At 604 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Annawan, or 11
miles north of Kewanee, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Henry County.

This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 27 and
35.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 9002 4147 9002 4149 8986 4137 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 244DEG 25KT 4141 8994 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Gibbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
521 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms 4 to 8 PM, primarily east of the
  Mississippi River, with a likelihood of a supercell mode in
  some of the storms over northern Illinois and a severe weather
  threat (although conditional tornado threat on depth of
  moisture and low-level instability)

- Strong winds gusting over 40 mph this evening and tonight. The
  wind advisory has been expanded to include the rest of the DVN
  CWA until 6am Wednesday.

- Temperatures to plummet tonight into the teens behind the cold
  front. Locations will see temperatures drop more than 10
  degrees in 1 hour after frontal passage. Wind chills to drop
  into the single digits above and below zero.

- Light snow showers after midnight, with amounts under an inch mainly
  on grassy and elevated surfaces. Some brief reductions in
  visibility and slick spots may occur.

- Much colder Wednesday and 1st day below normal in over a week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

The record warmth for the month of February is still on track to
at least provide a window of severe weather potential along and
east of the Mississippi River in our CWA, and in particular
along/north of I-80, late today/early this evening.

The latest 130 PM analysis depicts a 990 mb surface low
near Ottumwa, which has dragged higher surface moisture
northward (24-hour dew point change of 20+ degrees in parts of
west central Illinois!). The western edge of the 55 dew points
is from west of Springfield, IL to Galesburg, IL. As the low
approaches the Quad Cities by 4 PM, it will wrap this moisture
north-northwest. As the low also brings a surface wind
convergence and a pseudo-dry line northeast, and upper level
wind divergence increases (already noted by increasing cirrus
and even accas over eastern Iowa), that surface feature will
likely serve as the initiation area for scattered thunderstorms
near and east to northeast of the Quad Cities during the 4-6 PM
window. Convection-allowing models (CAMs) support this trend.

A failure mode to any storms would be there is not enough
boundary layer moisture (i.e. its only skin layer deep), which
is more of an issue near the Mississippi River in our CWA. Also
that area might see the cold front pass prior to initiation
opportunity. East of there, especially toward Sterling and
Princeton, IL, confidence is higher we would have enough for at
least scattered storms (20-40 percent coverage). The cumulus
clouds on satellite which are as far west as south of Peoria
right now might best show where the line of longitude will be
for storm initiation.

In terms of severe threat, conceptually to the immediate east-
northeast of a low center and on a dryline-like feature arcing
northeastward, supercellular structures would be supported.
Shear magnitude is more than sufficient (deep layer of 45+ kt),
and how persistent of a threat may depend on orientation of the
boundary as it lifts northward and, again, moisture depth. The
helicity values are presently low such as on our VWP, but as the
low-level jet increases ahead of the low late this afternoon,
values are expected to increase to 150-200 m2/s2. The forecast
motion of right-moving supercells today (due east at 30 mph)
would be favorable for some tornado threat in any mature cells
that can develop toward and into north central Illinois. The
most likely severe threat with any mature storms looks to be
hail, given steep 2-6 km lapse rates of 8 C/km aiding updrafts
accelerations and freezing levels below 10 kft. Some significant
severe hail (golf ball size or larger) is possible in this
regime.

So again, confidence in at least some thunderstorms in Illinois
as well as a supercell mode with a hail threat has trended
higher, especially our far eastern CWA. Lower confidence
remains in coverage and whether or not boundary layer moisture,
especially along the western periphery of the cumulus coming
north-northwest in central Illinois, is enough for a localized
tornado threat mainly from near I-80 to a little north of I-88.
For those along and east of the Mississippi River, especially
with outdoor or travel plans, stay aware of the forecast late
today and early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Tonight...surface low to be near GBG at 00z Wednesday with the cold
front through most of the CWA. This low will deepen to at least
986mb as it moves into western MI by 06z. A strong pressure gradient
combined with the mix down potential will result in sustained winds
over 25 mph and gusts over 45 mph at times. For this reason, have
expanded the wind advisory to all counties until 12z Wednesday. In
addition, strong CAA will push temps below freezing and bring a
chance of snow showers. Seems Mother Nature wants us to experience
all four seasons in 24 hours!  The largest diurnal range for MLI in
its climate record is 62 degrees in a calendar day on 11/11/1911
from its high of 76 degrees to the low of 14 degrees. We may get
close to this before Midnight. Regarding snow chances, strong
forcing aloft aided by a 160+kt jet will bring a brief 1-2 hr
reduction in visibility during any snow showers. Warm ground and
pavement temps should limit any accumulation to grass and elevated
surfaces. That said, there is a strong fgen signal that will need to
be watched that could bring a localized inch somewhere in the CWA.
Confidence in this is very low but will pass this concern on to the
evening shift. Quite the shock to the system will be seen Wednesday
AM. Wind chills will drop into the single digits above and below
zero.

Wednesday...much colder temperatures and clouds clearing will be
seen during the day. Cold temps aloft (-11 to -13C at 850mb) will
keep highs from reaching freezing for most locations. This will be
the first time we have been this cold since Feb 17th.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Wednesday night-Saturday night...quiet and dry weather and a return
to above normal temperatures will be seen to end the very warm
February and going into the beginning of March. Mostly sunny skies
and temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s is expected.

Sunday into Early Next Week...Another strong low will track into the
northern Plains putting us in the warm sector. Widespread
temperatures in the 70s and strong southerly winds will bring a fire
weather risk to the region. Something that we will continue to
monitor in later forecasts.  A cold front will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

An active 24 hours is forecast for all terminals in eastern
Iowa/northwest Illinois. A strong cold front will pass through
the region this evening, bringing a mix of weather conditions.
Initially, showers and storms are expected around the KMLI/KDBQ
vicinities, which will bring brief drops in visibilities to
MVFR/IFR. As the front passes this threat will diminish, with
attention turning to strengthening northwest winds. Light winds
from the south will veer northwest as the front passes, and
will strengthen with gusts around 30-40 kts at times through
the night. By midnight, a weak disturbance following the front
will bring an area of light snow to all terminals, which is
denoted by TEMPO groups beginning around 28.05z. MVFR/IFR
conditions will accompany the snow.

VFR conditions will return area-wide as skies clear by
28.12z, with gusty winds persisting through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Daily Record Highs for today, February 27th...

Burlington, IA.....72 in 1976....BROKEN
Cedar Rapids, IA...64 in 2018 and previous years...BROKEN
Dubuque, IA........62 in 1896....BROKEN
Moline, IL.........71 in 1976....BROKEN

Daily Record Warm Lows for today, February 27th...

Dubuque, IA........41 in 1896
Moline, IL.........41 in 1895 and previous years

All-Time Record February Daily Highs...
Burlington, IA.....76 on 2/24/1930*
Cedar Rapids, IA...76 on 2/26/2024*
Dubuque, IA........72 on 2/26/2024*
Moline, IL.........76 on 2/26/2024*...BROKEN (again!)

* = also denotes All-Time Record Meteorological Winter Daily Highs.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ015-024.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018-025-026-034-035.
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ009-010.

&&

MESOSCALE...Friedlein
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Speck
CLIMATE...Gross

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1245 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1245 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form between 4 and 6
PM along and east the Mississippi River as a strong cold front
approaches the area. These storms are expected to mature as they
head into Illinois leading to the threat of large hail, damaging
winds and tornadoes. The best chance for a tornado looks to exist
between I80 and I88 in Illinois late this afternoon and into the
evening.

As winds increase behind the cold front this afternoon, very high
fire danger is expected.  Burning is discouraged.

Tonight, winds behind the cold front will blow at 20 to 30 mph, with
gusts to 45 mph. Wind chills will fall below zero by morning with
temperatures dropping 55 to 65 degrees in a 15 hour window. Prepare
for typical late January weather!

Moderate snowfall is possible tonight with accumulations up to half
an inch.  This snowfall could lead to slick roads for the morning
commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Windy weather will continue through Thursday with gusts to 40 mph
possible and a continued risk for fires spreading out of control.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed today, after 4 PM.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: ENE at 30-40 mph

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
510 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     Hail             2 SSE Warner            41.39N 90.37W
02/27/2024  M0.25 inch       Henry              IL   Trained Spotter

            Just ended.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
512 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     Hail             1 SSE Green Rock        41.47N 90.36W
02/27/2024  M0.70 inch       Henry              IL   NWS Employee

            Occurring right now.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
515 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             2 N Leon Corners        41.63N 89.91W
02/27/2024  E1.00 inch       Whiteside          IL   Public

&&

GROSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
518 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Hail             Aledo                   41.20N 90.75W
02/27/2024  M0.88 inch       Mercer             IL   Public

            Via social media picture.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
519 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     Hail             Colona                  41.47N 90.36W
02/27/2024  E1.00 inch       Henry              IL   Broadcast Media

            Social media picture of quarter size hail
            relayed by media.

&&

12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
525 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     Hail             4 WSW Rock Island       41.44N 90.64W
02/27/2024  M0.25 inch       Rock Island        IL   Amateur Radio

            Delayed report.

&&