Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
231 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather chances are focused in the southern forecast
  area with hail the main risk through Monday.

- Widespread soaking rain through Monday night.

- Some transition to mixed rain and snow is possible as the
  system exits the region Tuesday night with little to no
  accumulations expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

East-west frontal boundary will be quasi-stationary from far
northern MO to southern IL through Monday. This keeps much of
our forecast area on the cool side of the front with strong
moisture/warm air advection overrunning the stalled front. This
should produce several rounds of showers and scattered elevated
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible. Any severe
threat (mainly hail) should remain in our far southern counties
closer to the frontal boundary. However, it appears the more
significant severe weather will remain south of the forecast
area where the warm sector will exist. Some locations especially
south of Hwy 34 may receive 1-2 inches of rain with PWAT's over
an inch and repeating storms. Lows tonight will range from the
upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Highs on Monday ranging
from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Monday night and Tuesday: Widespread rain continues over most
of the area as deepening low pressure tracks from the southern
Plains to northern Indiana. Below normal temperatures with highs
in the mid 40s to around 50.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: Potent trough in the southern
stream then phases with a potent trough diving southeast out of
western Ontario. This transition deepens the cyclone to 985 mb
as it pushes to the eastern Great Lakes. Enough colder air
wrapping around this deep upper low may produce a mix of rain
and snow or changever to all snow later Tuesday night and on
Wednesday, but mainly east of the MS River. However, any snow
accumulations should be minor, if any. As of now, the bulk of
the snow should remain east of the DVN forecast area. Continued
cool with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Thursday through Saturday: Global models depict an Omega Block
forming with a major trough in the eastern United States, and
another in the Rockies. A full-latitude ridge will be centered
in the eastern Great Plains. This pattern recognition suggests a
dry period for our area with a gradual warming trend. Highs in
the 50s late week then lower 60s on Saturday, as the Block
shifts slowly eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening as a warm front sets up south of the area. Persistent
moisture advection aloft and a cool low-level air mass will
lead to deteriorating ceilings to MVFR/IFR by this evening and
tonight. There may be a break in the showers/storms late tonight
before another round moves in Monday morning. Surface winds
through the period will remain steady out of the E to ENE
between 10 - 20 kts with slightly higher gusts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Uttech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
312 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-012015-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
312 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Through tonight, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for locations along and south of the Interstate 80
corridor. The main risk will be large hail from these elevated
thunderstorms. Far southern portions of the area, there is a
Slight risk (level 2 of 5). If a warm front can lift farther north
then there would be a low threat for damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms elsewhere may
produce small hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Monday and Monday night, a Marginal risk for severe storms
continues in extreme southern portions of the outlook area, for
large hail potential. Otherwise, widespread rain and thunderstorms
are expected over much of the outlook area, with rainfall amounts
over 1 inch possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Toward the east at around 45 mph.

Haase

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Hail             Cantril                 40.64N 92.07W
03/31/2024  M0.75 Inch       Van Buren          IA   Trained Spotter

            Dime to penny size hail.

&&

Haase

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
347 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     Hail             3 W Mount Sterling      40.62N 92.00W
03/31/2024  M0.75 Inch       Van Buren          IA   Trained Spotter

            Pea to dime size hail.

&&

Haase

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
352 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     Hail             1 ENE Milton            40.68N 92.14W
03/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Van Buren          IA   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
355 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Hail             3 W Charlie Heath Memor 40.58N 91.94W
03/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Clark              MO   Trained Spotter

&&

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
356 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     Hail             1 NW Cantril            40.65N 92.08W
03/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Van Buren          IA   Trained Spotter

            pea hail.

&&

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
403 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Hail             3 ENE Charlie Heath Mem 40.59N 91.84W
03/31/2024  M0.70 Inch       Clark              MO   Trained Spotter

            Small amount of pea to dime size hail.

&&

DC