Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers are forecast to develop late this
  afternoon into this evening along and behind a strong cold
  front with scattered thunderstorms to the east of the front. A
  few of these storms may become severe.

- There is a marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk of severe
  weather this afternoon into the early evening.

- A strong cold front will move across the region this evening
  with temperatures dropping from 75 degrees ahead of the front
  to 45 degrees behind the front.

- Rain chances will return Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A stalled frontal boundary stretches from near Freeport to Iowa
City to Ottumwa to KLWD. North of the boundary winds were
northerly with winds out of the south creating convergence along
the front. Dewpoints along and south of the boundary have surged
into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area with
temperatures generally  in the upper 60s to the mid 70s farther
to the south. Satellite shows continued towering cumulus growth
near the frontal boundary.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed east of the frontal
boundary with scattered showers behind it. Expect scattered
showers to become widespread this evening as the low level jet
increases with upglide over the front.  A few thunderstorms
along and west of the boundary may become severe with large hail
the main threat but as the front moves away and the cooler air
moves the severe threat will come to an end. 0 to 6 km shear is
parallel to the front so storms will not move off of the
boundary. In the warm sector southeast of the front, expect
scattered thunderstorms into the early evening. A storm or two
may become severe with large hail the main threat. Storms near
the boundary will have an increase helicity to work with causing
them to spin resulting in a low tornado threat through early
this evening.

Rain will come to an end from northwest to southeast tonight
with the cold front exiting the area by midnight and the better
lift shifting to the east. Clouds are forecast to linger into
the morning but low temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
low temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in Buchanan County
to the mid 40s in northwest Illinois south of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Wednesday: With the passage of the cold front cooler weather is
expected but still above normal for early March. We will be
between systems so dry for a couple of days. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 50s and lows in the 30s.

Thursday through Friday: A rather large/deep trough moves into the
central United States. Seems that the ECMWF has come around to the
GFS depicting a wetter/slower solution with widespread rain
expected, especially Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall amounts
look to be generally in the 1/2 to 1 inch range at most locations.
This pretty much matches the Day 4-5 WPC QPF amounts. NBM has
highs in the mid to upper 50s Thursday and upper 40s to mid 50s
on Friday.

This weekend: New data coming in shows the storm system pushing well
off to our east so we should be dry again. There is a shot of cooler
air in the wake of this system with h8 temps of -6C. Highs should
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with lows bottoming out in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A stalled frontal boundary will surge southeastward across the
area after 00 UTC Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
ahead of the front after 21 UTC impacting KBRL and KMLI. MVFR
ceilings and visibility are possible with any storms that
develop ahead of the front. As widespread precipitation
develops late this afternoon into this evening, MVFR ceilings
and visibility are forecast. Precipitation will end from
northwest to southeast  after 03 UTC with MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings continuing through the remainder of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 4:
KBRL: 72/1992
KMLI: 71/1992

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Cousins
CLIMATE...Speck/Uttech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
404 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-051015-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
404 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a strong cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal risk for severe storms (level 1 of 5) across much of the
outlook area. The main risks are hail up to quarter size and
strong gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph. An isolated tornado or two is
possible if a discrete storm can develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 pm and 10 pm today.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Towards the northeast at around 40 mph.

Haase

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