Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2024
Gale Warning 21, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this gale warning at Oct 30, 2024, 10:01 PM EDT. It took effect at Oct 31, 2024, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 20 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 30, 2024, 10:01 PM EDT (02:01 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 31, 2024, 2:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2024, 10:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted.
109 WHUS73 KDTX 310201 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 LHZ422-311430- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0015.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.241101T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the south with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. During the Low Water Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southwest winds will result in water levels dropping quickly in Saginaw Bay Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Water level as of 930 PM Wednesday is 12 inches above low water datum. Water levels are forecast to fall to approximately 30 inches below low water datum Thursday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LHZ441-442-311430- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0015.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. * WHERE...Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EDT Friday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ421-311430- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0015.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the south with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 33 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ443-311430- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0015.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the south with gusts up to 29 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ363-462>464-311430- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0015.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ361-362-311430- /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0015.241101T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241101T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the west with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 6 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ444-311430- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.241101T0000Z-241101T1200Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Low Water Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southwest winds will result in water levels dropping quickly in the western basin of Lake Erie Thursday evening through the overnight hours. Water level as of 930 PM Wednesday is 29 inches above the critical mark for safe navigation or 32 inches above low water datum. Water levels are forecast to fall to approximately 12 inches below the critical mark for safe navigation late Thursday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LCZ460-311430- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake St Clair- 1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 7 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
4 follow-up statements
805 WHUS73 KDTX 311351 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 LHZ422-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.241101T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the south with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. During the Low Water Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southwest winds will result in water levels dropping quickly in Saginaw Bay Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Water level as of 930 PM Wednesday is 12 inches above low water datum. Water levels are forecast to fall to approximately 30 inches below low water datum Thursday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LHZ441-442-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. * WHERE...Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EDT Friday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ421-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the south with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 33 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 40 knots. The largest significant waves will be 8 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ443-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241031T1800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the south with gusts up to 29 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EDT Thursday. During the Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ363-462>464-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241031T1800Z-241101T0800Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ361-362-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.241101T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the west with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 6 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ444-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.241101T0000Z-241101T1200Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 31 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels expected. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 1 PM EDT Thursday. During the Low Water Advisory, the maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southwest winds will result in water levels dropping quickly in the western basin of Lake Erie Thursday evening through the overnight hours. Water level as of 930 PM Wednesday is 29 inches above the critical mark for safe navigation or 32 inches above low water datum. Water levels are forecast to fall to approximately 12 inches below the critical mark for safe navigation late Thursday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LCZ460-010200- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake St Clair- 951 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 7 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
787 WHUS73 KDTX 010145 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 LHZ422-010800- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32 knots from the west with gusts up to 44 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Water level as of 930 PM Thursday is 4 inches above low water datum. Decreasing water levels below 0 inches above low water datum remains possible through the early morning hours, with water levels then quickly increasing through the mid to late morning hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464-010800- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the west with gusts up to 43 knots. The largest significant waves will be 9 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 13 feet. * WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ361-362-011400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the west with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 6 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ444-011400- /O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-241101T1200Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the west with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 1 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 12 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Water level as of 930 PM Thursday are 18 inches above low water datum. As wind direction continues to veer from southwest to west this morning, water levels are forecasted to fall to approximately 12 inches below low water datum through the early morning hours, with water levels then quickly increasing through the late morning hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LCZ460-011400- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake St Clair- 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the west with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Thursday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
760 WHUS73 KDTX 010759 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 LHZ422-011400- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.241101T0759Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.EXT.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-241101T1200Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 27 knots from the west with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Water level as of 4 AM Friday is 1 inch below low water datum. Water levels are forecast to remain near the low water datum through mid morning before quickly increasing through the mid to late morning hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LHZ442-443-012000- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.241101T0759Z-241101T2000Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the west with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 11 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ463-464-010900- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T0800Z/ Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... West winds will shift to northwest and may gust up to 30 knots early this morning, but will continue weakening through the day. $$ LHZ363-421-441-462-011400- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the west with gusts up to 35 knots. The largest significant waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ361-362-011400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 29 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 10 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 14 feet. * WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ444-011400- /O.EXT.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water levels. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the west with gusts up to 29 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Water level as of 4 AM Friday is 6 inches above low water datum. As wind direction continues to veer from southwest to west, water levels are forecasted to fall to near 0 inches above low water datum through the mid morning hours. Water levels will then quickly rise through the late morning hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels. && $$ LCZ460-011400- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake St Clair- 359 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the west with gusts up to 29 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Lake St Clair. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 4 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
784 WHUS73 KDTX 011408 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 LHZ421-441-012000- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-241101T2000Z/ Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI- 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 27 knots. The largest significant waves will be 6 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 8 feet. * WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay and Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LHZ361>363-462-011515- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... Winds have diminished below gales and will continue to decrease today, thus the gale warning has been allowed to expire. $$ LEZ444-011515- /O.EXP.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... Winds have diminished below 25 knots and water levels have risen above the critical threshold. $$ LHZ422-012000- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0088.241101T1408Z-241101T2000Z/ Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 26 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LCZ460-011515- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-241101T1400Z/ Lake St Clair- 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... Winds have dropped below 25 knots and will continue to diminish today. $$ LHZ442-443-012000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0087.000000T0000Z-241101T2000Z/ Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- 1008 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 21 knots from the northwest with gusts up to 27 knots. The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet. * WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI and Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI. * WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EDT Friday with the largest waves expected around 12 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 30, 7:04 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH are expected this afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, wind gusts of up to 50 MPH are possible during the afternoon and evening - especially across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions.
- Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon in advance of a strong cold front.
- Much cooler weather Friday and Saturday with temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 30, 7:04 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
704 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH are expected this afternoon
and early evening. On Thursday, wind gusts of up to 50 MPH are
possible during the afternoon and evening - especially across the
Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions.
- Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon in
advance of a strong cold front.
- Much cooler weather Friday and Saturday with temperatures in the
40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwesterly gusts will subside to a degree overnight as boundary
layer partially decouples. Still, gusts to 20+ knots will preclude a
mention of LLWS. Another gusty day is expected Thursday with the
potential for very windy conditions by the end of this forecast
period Thursday evening as a cold front races through the region. As
is, strong mixing will lead to gusts of 30-35 knots by midday into
the afternoon with some light rain showers perhaps enhancing gusts
at times. Cigs will drop to MVFR to lower VFR with this shower
activity as low level moisture increases within southwesterly flow
in advance of the encroaching cold front.
For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a low chance of a thunderstorm
Thursday afternoon/evening as weak instability develops within plume
of higher moisture.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less by Thursday morning, medium
by Thursday afternoon.
* Low for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
DISCUSSION...
Amplified longwave ridging across eastern North America continues to
drive near record warmth across the region. Under filtered sun and
strong low-level warm advection temperatures have climbed near or
eclipsed the record values for the date. The deep southwesterly flow
will maintain anomalously warm conditions through Thursday - though
not enough to challenge records.
A significant weather making system is currently deepening over the
central Plains and will advance northeast into the northern Great
Lakes Region by late Thursday. A strong cold front associated with
this system will cross Southeast Lower Michigan during the mid-late
afternoon hours tomorrow. Predictability of the finer, higher
amplitude features of this system has been rather low - owing much
of the uncertainty to the influence of the ongoing deep convective
response. Guidance tendencies have been toward quicker development
tonight, which favors a slightly farther west solution - then an
earlier filling process and fast emergence into the main westerlies
over eastern Canada on Friday.
This paced evolution will result in a reduction of sustained
moisture transport in the southern Lakes Region during the day
Thursday. Additionally, the anti-cyclonic side of the low-level jet
will remain longer - squashing larger scale precipitation
organization. There are strong indications that deep saturation will
be challenged across Southeast Michigan in the pre-frontal airmass -
leading to showery conditions in the few hours ahead of the front.
Instability production via differential advection will have faded by
then, as well; therefore, CAPE values and depth will be meager.
There is a sliver of forcing directed toward convective initiation
with enough dynamic trapping in the convective layer right along the
front, as indicated by CBL Froude Number near 1, to support a broken
line of forced convection. Given the strength of the front, the
resultant intensity should be greater than one would expect with
less than 500 J/kg of CAPE. Furthermore, winds will become strong
and gusty through the course of the day - with greater than 50 knots
residing at 850-mb supporting frequent gusts over 40 mph.
Since the main wave will complete the deepening phase just upstream,
there are dynamic ramifications in the sector of the system that
will affect the central portions of Lower Michigan. Namely, a pocket
of negative geopotential flux emerges to the right of the QG height
fall region - suggesting a mid-level mass release to the east should
be expected. This release will support an acceleration to the low
level isentropic surfaces and possibly support an inertia-gravity
wave response, as the jet level flow will become unbalanced.
Moreover, the system relative flow becomes more orthogonal to the
isentropic cliff - supporting dynamic downward momentum transport.
There are also indications in the RAP solutions that the flow along
the leading edge of the isentropic downglide will become unbalanced,
offering a couple hour window for higher wind gust potential along
the front and during the most aggressive post-frontal cold
advection. With 50 knots within easy reach just off the surface,
gusts to 50 mph will be possible where these conditions line up -
currently projected across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions
during the late afternoon and early evening. Winds will settle
quickly overnight Thursday night as the strong near surface cold
advection introduces an inversion layer that will insulate the
surface layer from the higher momentum aloft.
A day or two of chill will follow with highs only in the low 50s on
Friday and mid to upper 50s on Saturday. Clouds and rain chances
increase on Sunday as the long wave ridge over the southeast CONUS
builds and moist return flow washes into the region. Early next
week, the majority of the global ensemble membership maintains the
deep anticyclonic flow and above average lower tropospheric
temperatures. The continued deep southwesterly flow will support a
steady flux of moisture through the Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes region - establishing a rather wet period. There is a
small camp (about 15% of the solutions) that compress the longwave
train and point toward more aggressive response by the middle of
next week - possibly breaking down the long wave ridge.
MARINE...
The stalled cold front is still to our west extending from eastern
Ontario down into Oklahoma and West Texas. A new strengthening low
is developing over the southern Plains today that will lift
northeast through the western Great Lakes on Thursday which will
then push the cold front through the local area in the afternoon and
evening. Gusty southwesterly winds continue today peaking around 20
to 25 knots over the waters although stronger winds to 30 knots are
occuring over land due to more unstable conditions. This will
continue into Thursday as we remain in the unseasonably warm airmass
out ahead of the front. Small Craft Advisories are in effect and
will continue through the overnight with the elevated winds and
waves persisting. The cold front then brings showers on Thursday
with moderate winds shifting northwest in its wake by Friday. The
unstable cooler air behind the front may result in winds gusting to
near gale force Thursday night into Friday morning. A Gale Watch is
in effect for all of Lake Huron as a result. High pressure quickly
returns by late Friday leading to light winds.
CLIMATE...
The record highs for Today, October 30th.
Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 1999)
Flint: 77 Degrees (Set in 1950)
Saginaw: 76 Degrees (Set in 1999)
The record highs for Thursday, October 31st.
Detroit: 79 Degrees (Set in 1950)
Flint: 78 Degrees (Set in 1950)
Saginaw: 79 Degrees (Set in 1933)
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for LHZ361-
362.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for
LHZ363-421-422-441>443-462>464.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ444.
&&
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...Mann
MARINE.......DK
CLIMATE......Mann
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 30, 4:52 AM EDT, 17 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 452 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-310900- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 452 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A cold front will move across the region on Thursday. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 MPH are possible during the afternoon and evening as this front passes through. There is also a slight chance for a thunderstorm along the front, mainly in the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-310900- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 452 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Small Craft Advisories are in effect today and tonight for all nearshore waters. Please see the latest Marine Weather Message (MWW) for more information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A cold front moves across the region on Thursday. Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots are expected along with a slight chance for a thunderstorm along the front. A Gale Watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning for all of Lake Huron. Please see the latest Marine Weather Message (MWW) for more information. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. MV
The office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 10:01 PM EDT | Low Water Advisory | DTX | 36 hr | |
| Oct 31, 2:31 AM EDT | Wind Advisory | DTX | Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more | 23 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.