Beach Hazards Statement 4, NWS Detroit, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
331 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a chance (20-30%) for showers or a thunderstorm
across the Tri-Cities this afternoon and evening.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-40%)
expand across all of SE MI tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- A period of above average temperatures begins this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A diffuse high pressure system has built in across SE MI in the wake
of post-tropical system Beryl, which has resulted in generally clear
skies, outside of periodic stratus, and light winds. Sustained winds
speeds of 5-10 mph will help prevent sustainable fog development,
but cannot rule out some patchy development of fog just prior to
sunrise, mainly between 9-11Z. For this afternoon and evening, given
yesterday's widespread rainfall across all of SE MI, including the
wide swath of 2-4+" that fell across the central portion of the cwa,
one would expect daytime heating (0-3 km lapse rates of 7C/km) to
support a healthy strato-cu deck through the later afternoon and
evening hours. Model guidance is more optimistic with cloud coverage,
but will be increasing cloud coverage to partly sunny until
satellite imagery proves lackluster. Communities within the lake
shadow near Lake Huron will have much higher chances to see sunny to
partly cloudy conditions Otherwise, any sort of instability will
reside over the the west-central side of the state, where weak
surface convergence will provide the chance for showers or a
thunderstorm. There is a chance this convergence extends into the
Tri-Cities, so a chance (30%) of showers or a storm will hold there.
Cannot rule out a stray shower along the lake breezes of Lake
Huron/St Clair/Erie, but this will not warrant PoP chances above
10%.

Friday will exhibit more favorable chances for showers and
thunderstorms once diurnal instability builds, increasing CAPE
values to around 1000 j/kg. An outflow from decaying showers and
storms over northern Indiana will provide the chance for showers
and storms in the afternoon and evening. An upper-level shortwave
also pivots right over SE MI through the afternoon, lending
increasing confidence for shower and storm chances. Outside of
modest instability, effective inflow layers are shallow and shear is
weak, so severe weather is not expected. Thunderstorms with periods
of heavy downpours will be the main threats.

Upper level flow turns more zonal this weekend through the middle of
the week. The bulk of Saturday will be supportive of dry weather
with diffuse high pressure still influencing the Great Lakes. A
series of upper-level shortwaves and an added boost in heat and
moisture derived from the central Plains under westerly flow will
increase rain and thunderstorm chances through the early and middle
part of next week. While it is too soon to pinpoint any widespread
or strong shower/storm potential, Sunday into Monday morning will a
window to watch for potential MCS systems that may filter in from
the Plains into the Great Lakes. Favorable H850 and H700 southwest
flow will help sustain heat and moisture across the Plains. The
zonal flow has the potential to direct any sustained thunderstorm
activity into the Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds decrease steadily today in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Beryl with northwest flow becoming weaker and westerly by this
afternoon. High pressure attempts to build into the region Thursday
and Friday while weak troughing may produce some additional showers.
Winds/waves hold below criteria through Saturday and likely into
next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

AVIATION...

The back edge of lower clouds are clearing Michigan to the east
leaving mostly clear skies during the overnight. The abundant surface
moisture and clearing skies brings potential for patchy fog to
develop early tonight. However, the limiting factor will be the winds
which should stay slightly elevated to around 5 knots out of the
northwest. Will introduce a minor drop in VSBY at TAF sites as some
sites across Michigan are already experiencing lower VSBYs. Early
morning trends will be monitored and will maintain VFR conditions for
now. Any patchy fog will lift with the sunrise as winds hold out of
the northwest through this morning and afternoon. Good surface
moisture will support a low VFR to possible MVFR diurnal cumulus
field this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
late this afternoon, with the greater chances towards MBS. Winds
will become southwesterly during the evening will staying mostly
below 10 knots.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but current thinking is that that best chances will
hold west and north of DTW.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling aob 5kft through early morning. Moderate this
  afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421-422.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.

&&

DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
427 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MIZ049-055-063-112030-
Huron-Sanilac-St. Clair-
427 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Elevated wave heights along Huron, Sanilac and St. Clair County
increase beach hazard risks. Please see the beach hazard statement
for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-112030-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
427 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for all marine areas.
Please see the marine statement for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Small Craft Advisories continue for portions of Lake Huron through
Thursday. Please see the marine statement for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-112030-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
427 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
937 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Rain             Farmington              42.46N  83.38W
07/10/2024  M2.38 inch       Oakland            MI   Co-Op Observer

            14 hour rainfall total.

0400 PM     Rain             4 NE Davisburg          42.79N  83.48W
07/10/2024  M4.17 inch       Oakland            MI   Trained Spotter

            18 hour rainfall total.

0433 PM     Rain             Caro                    43.49N  83.40W
07/10/2024  M3.03 inch       Tuscola            MI   Public

            24 hour rainfall total.

0517 PM     Rain             3 W Lakeport            43.11N  82.56W
07/10/2024  M3.30 inch       St. Clair          MI   Public

            24 hour rainfall total.

0600 PM     Rain             5 W Lapeer              43.05N  83.42W
07/10/2024  M4.90 inch       Lapeer             MI   Trained Spotter

            24 hour rainfall total.

0600 PM     Rain             Farmington Hills        42.49N  83.38W
07/10/2024  M2.03 inch       Oakland            MI   Broadcast Media

            24 hour rainfall total.

0700 PM     Rain             3 S Oakland County Intl 42.62N  83.42W
07/10/2024  M2.35 inch       Oakland            MI   Trained Spotter

            24 hour rainfall total.

0730 PM     Rain             Swartz Creek            42.96N  83.83W
07/10/2024  M3.90 inch       Genesee            MI   Public

            24 hour rainfall total.

0800 PM     Rain             1 S Pittsfield Township 42.19N  83.72W
07/10/2024  M2.99 inch       Washtenaw          MI   Public

            24 hour rainfall total.

0800 PM     Rain             4 E White Lake          42.65N  83.43W
07/10/2024  M2.72 inch       Oakland            MI   Official NWS Obs

            24 hour rainfall total.

0800 PM     Rain             Flint                   43.02N  83.69W
07/10/2024  M3.31 inch       Genesee            MI   Official NWS Obs

            24 hour rainfall total.

0815 PM     Rain             Chesterfield            42.66N  82.84W
07/10/2024  M2.78 inch       Macomb             MI   Public

            24 hour rainfall total.

&&

Event Number DTX2400702
Event Number DTX2400703
Event Number DTX2400704
Event Number DTX2400705
Event Number DTX2400706
Event Number DTX2400707
Event Number DTX2400708
Event Number DTX2400709
Event Number DTX2400710
Event Number DTX2400711
Event Number DTX2400712
Event Number DTX2400713

KGK