Tornado Warning 7, NWS Des Moines, IA

012 
WWUS53 KDMX 262329
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
629 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IAC003-173-270000-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240427T0000Z/
Adams IA-Taylor IA-
629 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR ADAMS AND
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 628 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Corning Municipal Airport, or near Corning, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Corning, Lake Icaria, Prescott, Nodaway, Carbon, Lake Icaria State
Park, and Corning Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 9492 4116 9475 4116 9447 4105 9447
      4073 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 219DEG 46KT 4094 9479 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Small

864 
WWUS53 KDMX 262346
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IAC003-173-270000-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240427T0000Z/
Adams IA-Taylor IA-
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
ADAMS AND NORTH CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 646 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Prescott, or near Corning, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Corning, Lake Icaria, Prescott, and Lake Icaria State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9474 4116 9447 4105 9447 4087 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 239DEG 23KT 4098 9466 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Small

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
551 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Additional strong/severe storms expected this evening, now
  arriving across the western forecast area, translating NW/W
  through evening. While all modes of severe possible, a few
  tornadoes (strong possible) and large hail remain primary
  threats.

* Threat for additional severe storms Saturday, appears primarily
  over southern half of Iowa or so. All modes possible again, with
  primary threats for very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some
  heavy rain threat concerns linger.

* Another round possible Sunday, however details uncertain with
  preceding rounds of convection to play some role.

* Quieter start to next week, additional precipitation activity mid-
  late week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As of 545pm, a broken line of severe storms is approaching the
western edge of the forecast area. Several tornadoes, a few
strong, have already occurred across the NWS Omaha Forecast
area. A relatively warm and moist axis characterized by temps in
the 60s and 70s along with dewpoints in the low 60s extends nwd
along the Missouri River valley up through about Sioux City.
The environment in this area is characterized by MLCAPE values
of 1000-2000 J/kg with MLCIN generally less than -50 J/kg. The
kinematic parameter space at 22-23z remains very impressive
with 0-1km bulk shear values around 30kts and effective SRH
values from 200-400 m2/s2, most of which is confined in the
lowest 0.5-1km above the sfc. The questions that remain are how
long storms can remain discrete or semi-discrete and how long
can the storms remain in the more volatile atmosphere? The
latest guidance suggests that at least scattered severe storms
will impact the western counties for the next few hours, with
all modes of severe weather possible including tornadoes. As we
get further into the evening, after 00z, the latest guidance
suggests storms may congeal into a more linear QLCS mode.
However, even then isolated to scattered severe storms may
continue, especially across the south half of Iowa where
soundings show the boundary layer is less likely to become
capped. This could continue right into the early overnight hours
before storms eventually outrun the instability access to the
east and north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Morning convection progressed about as expected, if not a bit weaker
than original thoughts, moving across and out of the area by later
morning to early afternoon. In addition to already gusty background
winds, sporadic wind gusts in excess of 50kts were seen on the
backside of showers, producing wake low-like effects, as seen
in/around KOTM/KOOA/KEBS/KMCW. Additional scattered convection
across the area has been seen/experienced from late morning into the
early afternoon. All of which has been highly elevated with a strong
850-800mb warm nose in place, limiting severe hail potential. Of
note, CAMs have struggled with this convection, generally depicting
little to nothing until the later severe threat. This convection is
not expected to have adverse effects on the potential later today.

As of the time of this writing, dry line back across portions of
south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas has begun initiating
strong surface based convection, including a confirmed tornadic
storm in Nebraska along the nose of the dry slot and triple point.
This activity is a couple of hours sooner than the HRRR has recently
advertised, but aligns with recent NAMnest and ARW core runs. Timing
for western Iowa remains largely unchanged with arrival around 23z.
By this time, some clearing and the 850-800mb warm nose will have
been eroded, allowing for surface based convection to take hold.
Parameter space remains strongly in favor of tornadic potential and
large hail, especially over western areas where SBCAPE and 0-3km
CAPE values will be at their greatest. Hodographs continue to depict
text book low level curvature yielding 0-1km SRH values approaching
300 m2/s2, efficient streamwise vorticity ingestion, and supportive
streamwise vorticity values. Improved mid-level lapse rates increase
the hail threat with SBCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. Earlier
convective initiation west calls into some question what storm modes
may be by the time activity reaches the CWA, but HRRR runs continue
to suggest a few isolated supercells possible with some weak CIN
lingering, which would continue the threat for a stronger tornado or
two in addition to large hail. Should upscale growth become
prevalent/dominant, multi-cell or QLCS processes may still yield
tornadoes with proper orientation to low level shear, but
predominantly weaker and shorter lived in nature. Same for hail,
threat would remain, but likely lesser. As activity translates
eastward, nightfall will attempt to stabilize low levels, but strong
background winds to limit that, keeping surface based potential
going into the evening as storms approach I-35. Strong dynamics as
the upper wave and surface lows will continue the previously
mentioned tornado and hail threats as well. SPC Day 1 Enhanced area
remains well placed from this perspective.

A period of quieter conditions will settle in after 06z tonight or
so as the first upper wave and surface low exit northeastward. In
its wake will be a frontal boundary draped across the state from SW
to NE, which will determine the threat area for strong/severe storms
by the afternoon and evening Saturday. Day 2 SPC expansion of the
Enhanced area into the CWA appears more than warranted with
expectation of a "juicy" air mass building in which may yield SBCAPE
values in excess of 3000 J/kg along/south of the surface front.
While threats Saturday will be similar to today, tornadoes and hail,
the lead threat may be more in line with hail given the increased
CAPE and potential ECAPE enhancement. As noted by previous
discussion, wind fields are less substantial in the lowest levels,
but deeper wind profiles remain more than capable of organized
convection and some tornadic potential. Initial isolated storms mid-
afternoon to evening will be of greatest concern, before anticipated
upscale growth slowly lessens severe threats and potentially
translates to possible hydro concerns with storm motions roughly
parallel to the surface boundary and continued moisture transport
lifting northward. Overall, CAMs have eased back a bit off the 3"+
of rain potential, with the boundary potentially not remaining
stationary, but will be something to continue to keep a casual eye
on into the evening/overnight Saturday.

Sunday still brings yet another potential round of strong to severe
storms, but this remains with a few uncertainties given the above
rounds of convection needing to play out. This will be tied to the
upper level wave and surface low moving out into the Plains.
Synoptic guidance is pretty well aligned, at this point in time,
moving the surface low across Iowa in/around peak heating. Aside
from that, anticipated cloud cover throughout Sunday will limit
destabilization. Regardless, another opportunity for a few strong to
severe storms.

Beginning of next week continues to look on the quieter/dry side,
before additional shortwave activity returns unsettled weather mid-
late week. Throughout this forecast period, high temperatures will
oscillate between the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Messy aviation period with potential for multiple rounds of
showers and storms through around 06z for some sites. Have
attempted to denote periods of most likely prevailing
TSRA/SHRA, with VCTS/VCSH in less certain periods. Regardless,
much of the time will be IFR with ceilings at/around 1kft or
below until some improvement moves in after 00z as it lifts NE
through the TAF sites. Period of quieter overall conditions
flight category improvements after 06z. Additional
showers/storms expected Saturday, but outside of current TAF
period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Fowle
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
251 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-272000-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
251 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Severe weather including a few tornadoes, large hail, and strong
wind gusts are possible late this afternoon into this evening.
Isolated heavy rainfall may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe weather including locally heavy rainfall remains in the
forecast for Saturday and Sunday over central Iowa. For more
details, see the latest DSS Packet at
https://www.weather.gov/media/dmx/DssPacket.pdf

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, Saturday, and Sunday.

Hagenhoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IAZ044-045-057-261815-
Audubon IA-Crawford IA-Carroll IA-
1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AUDUBON...EASTERN CRAWFORD AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Audubon, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carroll, Audubon, Manning, Glidden, Exira, Manilla, Arcadia, Breda,
Vail, Templeton, Kimballton, Westside, Dedham, Halbur, Lidderdale,
Lanesboro, Willey, Gray, Aspinwall, and Hobbs County Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9521 4221 9463 4157 9484 4161 9509
      4186 9509 4186 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 191DEG 40KT 4170 9501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

REV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
102 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Hail             3 E Dedham              41.90N 94.76W
04/26/2024  M0.88 Inch       Carroll            IA   Trained Spotter

            Large quantity of dime to nickel sized hail.

&&

Fowle