Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Des Moines, IA

310 
WWUS53 KDMX 161925
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

IAC013-017-023-075-161945-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240416T1945Z/
Black Hawk IA-Bremer IA-Grundy IA-Butler IA-
225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN BLACK HAWK...BREMER...NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY AND EASTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 224 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Plainfield, or 10 miles north of Waverly, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Waverly, Allison, Evansdale, Hudson, Sumner,
Denver, Clarksville, Tripoli, Shell Rock, Greene, Waterloo Municipal
Airport, Crossroads Mall, Uni-Dome And McLeod Center, Janesville,
Readlyn, New Hartford, Plainfield, and Frederika.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 72 and 73.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for central, north
central and northeastern Iowa.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4231 9242 4271 9285 4291 9279 4291 9208
      4277 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 203DEG 45KT 4287 9244 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Fowle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
106 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of storms today. Severe weather possible
  throughout the day. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes
  all possible

- Strong synoptic winds today. Non-thunderstorm gusts to 50 mph
  or greater possible.

- Much colder to end the week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Thunderstorms focusing in the east this afternoon. Hail and winds
possible in SE Iowa this afternoon as storms tap into
instability. Tornadoes cannot be ruled as storms remain surface
based. Storms in northeast Iowa have bypassed warm front and,
therefore, the instability axis. Threat with this area of
storms will be limited to heavy rain.

Destabilized clear skies can be found in the west.
Thunderstorms are possible as this low moves into northwest and
will have access to ambient vorticity and stretching. Another
feature in the area of clearing is the dry line. Winds are
beginning to back over southern Iowa and may offer favorable
convergence for additional development on the approaching
boundary. These storms would be supercells. Tornadoes will be
possible in both regions of interest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Elevated thunderstorms have begun to develop across parts of west
central, central and southern Iowa along a region of theta-e
advection. The strongest updrafts thus far in Iowa have been over
west central Iowa but thus far nothing has approached severe limits.
The main low level jet axis remains to the west of the areas from
eastern South Dakota and into eastern Kansas. Thunderstorm activity
over north central Kansas and south central Nebraska has evolved
into a QLCS with wind gusts and numerous meso vertices occurring.
This activity should turn more north/northeast and remain to the
west of the forecast area. Another region of thunderstorm
development has been occurring over southeast Kansas which is in
vicinity of the mid and upper level jet maxes and immediately ahead
of the strongest PV anomaly rotating around the upper low. This is
the activity that will be lifting rapidly north/northeast towards
the DMX CWA and should be near the southwest corner between 12-14z.
Additional thunderstorms will continue to develop ahead of this line.

The 500 mb low is moving into northwest Kansas early this morning
and will continue to deepen through 18z as it moves into eastern
Nebraska then will slowly begin to fill as it lifts further
northeast into northwest Iowa by late this afternoon. This track
does fit past composite analysis of past Iowa severe weather and
tornado outbreaks with some minor temporal differences. The one
differences if the more deep layer unidirectional flow that is
predominant much of the period. Model solutions are varying to some
degree on the strength of the low level flow and thus the low level
shear potential. The overall trends are suggesting a stronger low
level wind field at 850 mb and below that would promote better
turning in the low levels. At the surface, low pressure over western
Nebraska is gravitating southeast towards the approaching upper low.
The low will undergo a fujiwhara as it reorients with the upper low.
A plume of 60+ dewpoints has lifted into east central Nebraska and
this will continue to lift into central Iowa today.

Today's severe weather threat and how it will evolve still is not
completely clear cut. Will be referring this as 3 rounds of storm
potential. Round 1 is the current elevated storms that may have a
low end severe hail threat. Round 2 is the activity lifting
northeast out of Kansas and round 3 is potential storms to develop
along the pseudo dry line. We will focus on rounds 2 & 3. Round 2
may end up evolving into a linear/QLCS line this morning as the
storms motions are nearly parallel to the 0-3 km shear vector of 40-
50 kts. In addition, low level stretching is likely as 0-3 km CAPE
values increase to 50-100 J/kg this morning. Proximity soundings
would suggest that the storms may be slightly elevated but given the
forcing and the low level moisture advection, the storms may be
surface based and pose a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat.
Round 3 which is expected to form along the pseudo dry line, could
see more discrete supercells development. Again, the overall profile
is more unidirection which may suggest more of a wind and hail
threat. The wind threat is further supported by the 0-3 km theta-e
differences over 25k suggesting the potential for sustained cold
pools. Will have to see how the low level wind field sets up for the
tornadic threat. The unidirection profiles may result in splitting
storms with the left movers possessing an enhanced hail threat if they
can sustain. Finally, storm motions today of around 45 kts does
increase the risk for EF2+ tornadoes as it further strengthens the
right forward moving portions of any tornadoes. Any storms today
will have the damaging wind threat with the strong winds just above
the surface.

Have added the entire area into the wind advisory today for the
synoptic wind. It is possible some areas approach 60 mph in non-
thunderstorm winds. Should have an increase this morning then again
as the pseudo dry moves through and deeper mixing occurs this
afternoon.

No major changes beyond that as the focus this morning was on the
near term. Precipitation ends on Wednesday but breezy to gusty winds
will persist. The big story in the extended is the cool down coming
and yes we will have frost and freezing temperatures back in
Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR cigs to continue moving east within
the next 6 hours. Clearing will reach KFOD and KDSM within the
next 2 hours, but will not last. Additional rain and storm
development is expected in the northwest with severe weather
possible. Aside from storms, gusty winds exceeding 40kts at
times are expected for the remainder of the day. MVFR to IFR
cigs to move in overnight with rain continuing north.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097.

&&

MESOSCALE...Jimenez
DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Jimenez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
425 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-170930-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
425 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the area. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are be expected today into
tonight with a Slight (2 out of 5) to Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5)
for severe weather. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will all be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed at times today into tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1056 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     Hail             1 NNE Chariton          41.02N 93.30W
04/16/2024  E0.75 Inch       Lucas              IA   Broadcast Media

            Local media relayed report of penny sized
            hail on NE side of Chariton. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     Tornado          2 E Minburn             41.75N 93.99W
04/16/2024                   Dallas             IA   Amateur Radio

            Outbuilding sheet metal scattered in fields.

&&

CAH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     Tornado          2 WNW Dallas Center     41.70N 94.00W
04/16/2024                   Dallas             IA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Damage to outbuilding. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

CAH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Hail             2 NNE Floris            40.89N 92.32W
04/16/2024  E0.88 Inch       Davis              IA   Public

&&