Tornado Warning 7, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing this evening. Hazards
  include very large hail up to 3" in diameter, damaging winds
  to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes.

- Cooler temps on Thursday and high pressure on Friday.
  Additional shower and thunderstorm chances likely this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

This afternoon and evening:

Destabilization has been occurring early this afternoon as skies
have (or in the process of becoming) cleared in the wake of showers
and thunderstorms that moved through earlier this morning. High
MLCAPE values of 2000-3500 J/kg are expected this afternoon and
evening in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front.
Aloft, a steep elevated mixed layer around 8-8.5 degC/km will be
advecting into the CWA this afternoon. At the surface, moisture
advection provided via a strong southwesterly LLJ at 850mb of 40-45
knots has increased dewpoints across the MN portion of the CWA
to around the low to mid 60s.

Previously, there was some concern that the convection that is
currently moving through southern MN would reduce the amount of
available moisture and reduce the severe thunderstorm potential.
However, recent obs have shown that the strong LLJ has been able to
overcome this barrier. Latent heat release from the morning and
ongoing convection being advected northward is also likely
contributing to the strong instability that will be seen today.

Thunderstorms are expected to have strong and quickly-developing
organization today as very favorable wind shear occurs over the CWA.
A strong 500mb jet maxima will result in 0-6 km bulk shear today of
50-55 knots. Storm mode today is expected to initially begin as
discrete supercells over north-central MN, primarily northwest of
the Iron Range. As convection propagates eastward, storm mode is
expected to transition to becoming more quasi-linear. Recent runs of
the CAMs suggest that while storm mode will become more linear this
evening, large hail will continue to be a threat as cells remain
somewhat discrete. Timing wise, strong to severe convection will be
starting as soon as 3 PM in far north-central MN and move east-
southeast through the region this afternoon and evening. Any
strong to severe thunderstorms should be downstream of the CWA
around midnight tonight.

All severe thunderstorm hazards will be possible this afternoon and
evening, expect for flash flooding. The primary concern is very
large hail, which is forecast to be up to 3 inches in diameter
across the MN portions of the CWA and adjacent counties in northwest
WI. Damaging winds up to 70 mph are also a concern today, as model
soundings show dry air in the low-levels and DCAPE values of around
1000-1500 J/kg. While the potential is low, a tornado or two also
can't be ruled out this afternoon and early evening as 0-1km SRH
increases to around 100-150 m2/s2. The one limiting factor to the
tornado potential today will be somewhat high LCL heights of around
2000 feet AGL in the area where discrete supercells are most likely
in far north-central MN. LCL heights will be lowering to around 350-
750 feet AGL farther east late this afternoon and evening, but with
storm mode becoming more linear, this will lessen the tornado
threat. Flash flooding is unlikely to occur today as the strong to
severe thunderstorms will be fairly progressive across the CWA.

Thursday into Friday:

Cooler temps are expected tomorrow following the cold frontal
passage tonight. Scattered showers will be possible, mainly in the
Arrowhead. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon hours will be
possible, but severe weather is not expected. Quiet conditions
develop on Friday as high pressure builds over the Northern Plains.

Weekend into early next week:

Low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies Friday evening
will propagate into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will be
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of the
weekend. Strong WAA occurring over the weekend will result in high
temps on Sunday reaching into the low to mid 80s with uncomfortable
dewpoints in the 60s. Monday will see shower and thunderstorm
activity continue as a strong shortwave trough propagates eastward
through the central CONUS. There are early indications that Monday's
system could bring strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in
north-central MN. However, it is still too early for specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Severe thunderstorms continue to move east to southeastward
through 03-04Z Thursday today, with wind gusts to 45 knots, very
large hail around 2 inches in diameter and a few tornadoes
possible mainly in northeast Minnesota through 02Z today. After
the storms move east of the area by 05Z, expect only lingering
isolated general thunderstorms and scattered showers overnight.
Winds shift to westerly behind the line of thunderstorms and
shift northwesterly by Friday morning. Another round of
scattered showers and non-severe storms drop southward first
from the Borderlands and into the MN Hwy 210 corridor from
15-21Z Thurs.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Strong to severe storms may produce hail and gusty winds across
western Lake Superior this late afternoon and evening ahead of a
cold front. Following the cold frontal passage, winds increase out
of the northwest on Thursday with gusts to near 20 knots - a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed. Winds weaken Thursday evening into
Friday as an area of high pressure builds across the Upper Great
Lakes. This weekend into early next week a more active weather
pattern develops with a few chances for precipitation.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     145>148-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...JJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-132330-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening and are
expected through 11 pm early tonight. Very large hail around 2 to
2 and a half inches in diameter have been observed and a tornado
or two are also possible, especially across north central and
northeast Minnesota. The strongest storms will have the potential
to produce wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An active weather pattern is expected to resume starting Saturday
and continuing into early next week. Some stronger to severe
storms possible Sunday, as well as some heavy rainfall and minor
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-132330-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible through 10 pm. Storms
will be capable of very large hail potentially up to 3 inches in
diameter and wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Gusty westerly winds with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots on Thursday,
with the best potential in the Twin Ports.

An active weather pattern is expected to resume starting Saturday
and continuing into early next week. There are some signals on
Sunday for the possibility of stronger to severe storms.

NLy

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Breezy Point        46.66N 94.23W
06/12/2024                   Crow Wing          MN   Storm Chaser

            Reports heavy damage. Powerlines down across
            road, damage to siding and roofs, and
            numerous trees down. Time estimated.

&&

KLL

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