Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to potentially heavy rainfall today into this evening
  over southern portions of the Northland.

- Cooler temperatures expected Thursday-Saturday. Highs 5-10F
  below normal.

- Periodic chances for more showers/thunderstorms mid-late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

The forecast focus will be in the short term and revolve around
chances for moderate to heavy rain over southern portions of the
Northland. A few lighter showers were moving into Cass/Crow
Wing/Aitkin into Pine Counties early this morning in response
to some FGEN. PWAT values per the RAP were about 1.2 inches. A
shortwave aloft, surface low, strong FGEN, and PWAT values
rising to near 1.7 inches will all combine to cause showers to
expand in both coverage and intensity today, especially from the
Brainerd Lakes east into parts of northwest Wisconsin or
roughly the southern third of the Northland. Instability is not
very high over our area but the FGEN forcing will make up for
some of that. Most of the guidance, including the high res CAMS,
keep the highest rainfall just to the south of the Northland.
The NBM shows forecasts about a 30% chance for rainfall greater
than 1 inch from the Brainerd Lakes east through Siren, Hayward,
into Parks Falls and Phillips today into this evening. Chances
for 2" or greater are less than 10%. These values may be a bit
low given the forcing and or current forecast has values from
0.5-1" in the far south. We'll have to keep a close eye on where
the main FGEN band of precipitation sets up and adjust QPF as
needed. Soil moisture is rather low across much of the southern
portions of the Northland, less than 30%, which should help
mitigate issues if some heavier rainfall does occur.

Off lake winds are again expected today and they will be strongest
in the Twin Ports area. The wind and waves will create a high risk
for rip currents in the Twin Ports area and we will be issuing a
Beach Hazard Statement.

The rain will end later tonight as high pressure pushed in from the
west. Tuesday is expected to feature dry weather with mostly sunny
skies.

An upper low will drop south through Manitoba/Saskatchewan
Wednesday. The global models differ beyond Wednesday on how they
handle the upper low with the GFS sending it further south then east
through the region Thursday/Friday with the ECMWF holding it further
west and north. With either solution, there will be chances for
showers/thunderstorms mid-week then periodically beyond. We do
expect cooler temperatures, especially from Thursday through
Saturday where highs will be 5-10F below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

VFR conditions were occurring for most at the beginning of the
period with area radars showing showers from central Minnesota
northwest into North Dakota. These showers may impact KBRD early
in the period. The showers further north are expected to
diminish by the time they reach KDLH/KHIB in the early morning
hours.

An area of low pressure, strong FGEN, and a shortwave aloft will
cause showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to increase
in coverage over southern portions of the Northland through the
day Monday. There is a question in how far north they will get
as they will be running into drier air. We kept VCSH at KDLH and
have showers as a predominant weather type at KBRD/KHYR. MVFR
and perhaps a brief dip to IFR will occur with the stronger
showers this afternoon. The forcing will shift south and east
Monday evening bringing an end to the showers. Future updates
may need to add some thunder to KBRD/KHYR but for now we left
out as CAPE is very low. However, the strong FGEN could be
enough to get some thunderstorms going.

Winds for most through the period will be at or less than 10
knots except for a few gusts. Winds will be a bit stronger at
KDLH.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

Easterly winds are expected today with them at or lower than 15
knots for most. The exception will be in the Twin Ports area where
they will be closer to 15 knots with higher gusts. Waves in the Twin
Ports will build to around 3 feet. The wind will diminish tonight to
10 knots or less then be onshore again Tuesday into Wednesday from 5
to 15 knots, a bit higher in the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1013 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

MNZ037-WIZ001-060315-
Carlton/South St. Louis-Douglas-
1013 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong northeast winds will increase the threat of rip currents
again on Monday for areas near the Twin Ports, including the
beaches of Duluth and Superior. A Beach Hazards Statement may be
needed.

A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday over
central and northern Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>036-038-WIZ002>004-006>009-060315-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Pine-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-
Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1013 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday over
central and northern Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-060315-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1013 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Rothstein

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth