Beach Hazards Statement 13, NWS Duluth, MN

531 
WHUS43 KDLH 281123
CFWDLH

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

MNZ037-WIZ001-290300-
/O.CON.KDLH.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-240829T0300Z/
Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-
623 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected along the 
  Lake Superior shoreline due to high wave action and strong rip 
  currents.

* WHERE...Minnesota Park Point and Wisconsin Point Beaches.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...High wave action can make swimming difficult on days
  such as this. Incoming waves in rapid succession can tire even
  an experienced swimmer quickly. Rip currents can usher you away
  from land. To avoid being swept away, swim parallel to the shore
  to exit a rip current.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Areas of fog may be possible tonight over northwest Wisconsin
 due to recent rains and light wind.

-Seasonable temperatures return this week!

-A potent upper level system will bring the next chance for
 thunderstorms (80% chance) and severe weather on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

I think everyone can agree: Today feels much better being outside.
Temperatures behind the cool front that brought the
overnight/morning rain are 10-15+ degrees cooler than
yesterday, and will sit around seasonal average for areas that
saw some sun today, and below seasonal average for areas socked
in with clouds.

Moving into tonight, rain may redevelop over parts of the CWA,
but the chances for severe have mostly diminished. Some
instability is building back into areas where the sun has been
able to shine through, but models are topping out at a few
hundred J/KG of MLCAPE this afternoon. A shortwave is moving
over the area this evening that may be able to provide enough
lift for showers, with enough shear to sustain them, but expect
them to remain weak overall. By sunrise, all activity will have
moved east. With light winds overnight, areas of fog may
develop, especially where rain has fallen over the past 24
hours.

Wednesday will remain cool and dry as we sit under upper level
ridging between a departing system and an approaching system.

Thursday, an strong upper level low approaches from the Northern
Plains, riding the US/CA border, bringing with it a front that
will push through the region Thursday afternoon from west to
east. SPC has already put part of the area in a marginal threat
for severe weather. Models show MLCAPE values reaching 2000
J/KG+ Thursday afternoon, with bulk shear values of +/- 30 knots
as the front moves through, which can bring greater than 1"
hail, strong wind. In addition, NAEFS mean PW values are above
the 90 percentile (climatologically), meaning that flooding
will all be possible, especially with saturated soils from
recent rain. The caveat for flooding, at least, will be how
quickly the storms move through the area. All storm activity
will be over by late morning Friday.

Friday and Saturday will be quieter as we move into a
northwestern flow pattern, with near to just above seasonal
average temperatures. The next chance for rain will be Saturday
night as a cold front through. There are still questions as to
how much rain the area will receive due to placement of the best
forcing and lack of available moisture. One thing to note is
that temperatures Sunday do look to be much cooler -- in the
60s. If this comes to fruition (still many days out) lows on
Sunday night could reach into the lower 40s, and dare I say
upper 30s in a few places...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Patches of MVFR stratus over the Northland will linger, so
included TEMPOs for terminals near/under this stratus. Fog
probabilities continue to decrease, possibly due to the
lingering cloud cover hindering the decreasing temperatures and
dewpoint depressions. However, models still show fog occurrence
highest at HYR, so included some MVFR visibilities. Any lowered
sites should return to VFR in the mid morning except HYR,
which if fog does form could take until late morning to clear
MVFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Breezy northeast winds will continue to gradually develop today,
gusting between 15 to 25 kt. The Apostle Island down to Saxon
Harbor are already reaching these speeds, with the head of the
lake expected to hit them later this afternoon. Wave heights of
3 to 5 ft are expected.. These conditions will continue on
Wednesday, where breezy conditions and waves 3 to 6 ft will
expand further in coverage. A long- duration Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through Wednesday evening when winds are
expected to subside.

There is a 20 percent chance of rain develop this evening,
though lightning probabilities are near zero, so expect anything
that develops, if it develops, to remain as rain showers.
Wednesday, the area will remain dry.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...LR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
853 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-290200-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
853 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of fog with reduced visibilities are expected tonight mainly
in northwest Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Areas of fog should dissipate by mid to late Wednesday morning.

Strong northeast winds are expected to remain gusty into
Wednesday to keep an elevated threat of rip currents through
Wednesday for areas near the Twin Ports, including the beaches of
Duluth and Superior.

Thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning through
Thursday night across the Northland. Isolated strong to severe
storms are possible (5 to 15 percent chance) Thursday afternoon
into evening. The primary hazards would be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. A secondary hazard of localized heavy rain could lead
to minor flooding Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-290200-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
853 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Northeast winds gusting to 25 knots build forecast wave heights
up to 6 ft along the Apostle Islands and parts of the South Shore
through tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gusty northeast winds are forecast through Wednesday. Wind gusts
to around 25 kt and wave heights up to around 5 to 6 ft are
expected. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until early
Wednesday night.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

NLy

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth