Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are forecast
  for this evening and overnight. Rain chances are 70 to 100%.

- Severe weather chances are low with this evening's storms; but
  wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be common, with localized winds
  possibly as high as 60 mph in a few spots. Small hail may
  accompany the strongest storms.

- Cooler and dry weather is expected in the wake of a cold front
  starting Friday and persisting through Monday, with
  temperatures several degrees below seasonal averages.

- A slight warm up is predicted by mid to late next week, with
  highs increasing to the upper 80s, with possibly a few 90
  degree readings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

A shortwave traversing the northern plains will help push a
cold front southward through Kansas tonight. A weak disturbance
moving eastward across the high plains, along with a subtropical
moisture plume, will help increase precipitation efficiency.
Numerous t-storms have already developed early this afternoon
across western Kansas. These storms will become organized with
cold pool formation, resulting in a wide band of t-storms moving
across southwest and central Kansas through tonight. Wind gusts
of 40-50 mph are likely along the leading edge of storms, with
isolated gusts as high as 60 mph. Given the very weak shear,
only small hail can be expected with the strongest cells.
Although appreciable rain will be widespread, localized pockets
of 1 to 2" or greater rain is expected. NBM probabilities of 1"
or greater of rain are 50-80% along and southeast of a line
from Meade to Hays.

Cooler weather is predicted in the wake of a cold front
starting Friday, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the
50s for several days. Yet another weak cold front will
reinforce the cooler air mass by Sunday, resulting in highs in
the 80s and lows in the 50s through Tuesday.

An upper level ridge will form over the high plains by Tuesday
and Wednesday based on CMCE and ECMWF ensemble mean 500mb
fields. This will lead to a warming trend as winds become
southerly again, with high temperatures warming into the upper
80s. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the location and
amplitude of the upper level ridge by late next week per ECMWF,
CMCE and GEFS ensemble means and spreads. If the ridge is less
amplified and fronts along the southern edge of the westerlies
can move south into Kansas, then small chances of thunderstorms
would return by late week. If the ridge is more pronounced,
then mainly dry weather would persist, with highs possibly
reaching the lower 90s from late next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

A band of storms will pass across the TAF sites between 22 and
05z, resulting in a wind shift to the northwest at 10 to 20 kts,
with local gusts to 40 kts. Thunder will persist for 2 to 4
hours at any given location. Storms should arrive at KGCK and
KHYS between 23 and 01z. The best chance of storms at KDDC and
KLBL is between 02 and 05z. Winds will gradually subside later
tonight after the storms move out.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301230-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
200 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 /100 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Late afternoon into evening storms are expected across the region.
Strong/marginally severe wind, some hail, and moderate to heavy rainfall
are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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