Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A strong cold front will move through southwest Kansas leading to
   spotty storms mainly along and east of highway 283

-  Severe threat and fire threats look limited today to mainly our
   far southeast zones (Ashland to Pratt)

-  Long term trends are increasing confidence of several rounds
   of rain this weekend and early next week mainly in central
   and south central Kansas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

07Z observations and upper air analysis shows a large upper level
trough located across the western CONUS with a strengthening 500 mb
jet from eastern New Mexico through western Nebraska.  700 mb levels
are showing strong frontogenesis from southeast Nebraska through the
Oklahoma panhandle.  At the surface a cold front is basically
running parallel with the 500 mb jet and earlier convection that
developed late Tuesday evening is now located in north central
Kansas.

Today the highlight will be the slow moving cold front going through
western and central Kansas and the temperature and storm forecast
challenges it will present.  Highest confidence of colder advection,
clouds, and spotty rain showers will be mainly along and north of an
Elkhart to Hays line as high temperatures for today will have
occurred early in the morning and steady to slightly falling
temperatures will be the case through the day.  From a line from
Liberal to St. John the front should move through around sunrise
towards late morning where a sharp change of the winds to the north
should keep storm chances primarily in the hours between 6a-noon.
Further southeast will have the warmest temperatures as a strong
dryline will eject eastward during the day mainly in the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandle which could touch areas up to the Red Hills
bringing a small window of enhanced fire danger in the early
afternoon.  Between 18-21Z will give us the small window of
potential severe storms as initial development along the cold front
looks to be around Pratt and Medicine Lodge but the more organized
severe threat should be farther east into central and easter Kansas.
Rain and storm chances should end by 00Z for southwest Kansas and
with high pressure coming in we should see the decrease in winds,
clearing skies and cold temperatures  with lows from the upper 20s
to mid 30s.

Long term upper level winds in the ensembles show a large and slow
moving longwave trough moving onto the west coast by Saturday
afternoon.  Upper level winds in the central and southern plains
will be southwesterly bring in upper level Pacific moisture and 700
mb shortwaves to provide the lift.  Combining with surface winds out
of the southeast bringing in Gulf moisture we are increasing in
confidence for a several day rain event especially along and east of
highway 283 from Saturday through at least Monday.  Probabilities in
the NBM 72 hour QPF of 0.50 inches or greater is at 30-40% from
Liberal to Hays and 60-80% along and east of highway 281 signaling
we have a good target of opportunity for some much needed rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

The cold front pushed across all terminals earlier this morning
resulting in north to northeast winds. The much cooler and moist
airmass behind the front also lead to MVFR flight category in
2000-3000 foot BKN/OVC ceiling. This ceiling is forecast to
gradually scatter out to VFR, however timing of this is still a
bit uncertain. The official TAF will call for roughly 20Z for
VFR at GCK, DDC, and HYS. This evening, wind speeds will relax
to below 12 knots as high pressure settles in across western
Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-310815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 /210 AM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Storms this afternoon could briefly be severe mainly around the
Pratt to Medicine Lodge areas but the core of the severe weather
should be further east into central Kansas. A small window
between 2-5 pm in the Red Hills could see elevated fire weather
with the main core of the drier air being further south in
Oklahoma and Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation won't be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ065-066-079-301730-
Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...WEST
CENTRAL STAFFORD AND EAST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM
CDT...

At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lewis, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Belpre around 1210 PM CDT.
  Zook around 1215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 9917 3795 9934 3824 9906 3805 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 224DEG 23KT 3794 9920

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ065-066-079-301745-
Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...
NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD AND EAST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 1245
PM CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zook, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Zook around 1220 PM CDT.
  Radium around 1235 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 9873 3794 9906 3800 9913 3826 9900
      3826 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 218DEG 32KT 3799 9907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ080-088-089-301800-
Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM
CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Protection, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Kiowa,
northwestern Comanche and northeastern Clark Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 9952 3733 9964 3764 9945 3744 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 218DEG 32KT 3735 9953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ080-081-089-090-301830-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA...
NORTHWESTERN BARBER...NORTHERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHWESTERN PRATT
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belvidere, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Belvidere around 100 PM CDT.
  Croft around 105 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Wellsford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 9910 3739 9923 3767 9906 3755 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 218DEG 32KT 3740 9914

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
111 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ089-301845-
Comanche KS-
111 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Coldwater to 10 miles northeast of
Buffalo. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Coldwater and Lake Coldwater around 115 PM CDT.
  Buttermilk around 120 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9939 3737 9906 3700 9922 3700 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 271DEG 17KT 3732 9935 3697 9953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

FINCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
115 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ066-080-081-301900-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Kiowa KS-
115 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL KIOWA...SOUTH
CENTRAL STAFFORD AND CENTRAL PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Croft, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cullison around 120 PM CDT.
  Pratt around 130 PM CDT.
  Iuka around 135 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 9850 3747 9895 3747 9898 3756 9909
      3793 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 221DEG 35KT 3755 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

FINCH