Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Dodge City, KS

232 
WWUS53 KDDC 230328
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1028 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

KSC055-093-171-230400-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-240823T0400Z/
Kearny KS-Finney KS-Scott KS-
1028 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SOUTHERN SCOTT
COUNTIES...

At 1028 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shallow Water,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Shallow Water, Friend, and Modoc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 10074 3823 10074 3822 10124 3826 10124
      3827 10112 3850 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 257DEG 22KT 3835 10100 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TURNER

731 
WWUS53 KDDC 230342
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1042 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

KSC055-093-171-230352-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-240823T0400Z/
Kearny KS-Finney KS-Scott KS-
1042 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened 
below severe limits. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 10074 3823 10074 3822 10124 3826 10124
      3827 10112 3850 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 261DEG 18KT 3836 10091 

$$

TURNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are likely this evening through the overnight
  hours favoring the northwest and northern zones, some of which
  may be severe.

- Widespread triple digit temperatures expected on Saturday,
  with the southeast zones likely needing a Heat Advisory in the
  near future.

- Cooling trend Sunday into mid-next week accompanied by
  precipitation chances returning that favor the northwest and
  northern zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveals a ~597-dm mid-level ridge remains fixed in place over
the central and southern plains, with a pair of troughs on
either side. At the surface, broad high pressure is spread out
across nearly all areas east of the Rockies, leading to
southeasterly winds over southwest KS. Following the morning
cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the 80s to low 90s as
of 19Z, and are expected to peak in the upper 80s northeast to
upper 90s/near 100 southwest by mid-afternoon. Later this
evening, short range guidance agrees a weak mid-level vorticity
max will eject out of the central Rockies onto the High Plains.
This feature will likely support thunderstorm development over
eastern CO, and this activity will translate eastward into our
northwest through northern zones as HREF probability of QPF >
0.01" is in the 50-70% range from 7pm CDT through the overnight
hours. While mid-level flow will be weak given proximity to the
ridge, the ejecting impulse may provide just enough forcing for
some degree of storm organization, resulting in a severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters the
primary hazards.

Friday and Saturday, short range guidance suggests the mid-
level ridge will begin to be shunted on the northwest side as a
strong trough pushes its way east over the Pacific Northwest.
Unfortunately, this slight pattern change will not pay dividends
to southwest KS yet, and the hot and mostly dry conditions will
persist Friday with afternoon highs in the low 90s northeast to
upper 90s/near 100 southwest. Saturday continues to appear to be
the warmest day of the forecast period as 850-mb temperatures
warm into the low 30s C. This will translate to afternoon highs
in the 100-105 range for most, with the Red Hills potentially
hitting 107-108. A Heat Advisory will almost certainly be needed
at some point for Barber, Pratt, and Comanche counties at least.

Sunday into early next week, medium range ensembles agree the
mid-level trough will proceed with its eastward propagation,
gradually weakening the mid-level ridge's grip on the central
plains. As a result, a slow cooling trend is expected as
afternoon highs decrease from the upper 90s/low 100s Sunday to
the upper 80s/mid 90s by Wednesday. In addition to the cooling
trend, precipitation chances will return to our area, favoring
the northwest to northern zones, as LREF probability of QPF >
0.01" is in the 20-30% range Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday
evenings. While any precipitation will likely be minimal,
any relief is welcome.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Good flying weather will continue through the balance of this
TAF period, with VFR expected. Thunderstorms are expected to be
in the vicinity of NW KS around 03z Fri, then subsequently move
eastward to be in the vicinity of HYS during the 06-12z Fri time
range. Enough support in the models to include VCTS/CB mention
in the HYS TAF for this time frame. All other airports will
remain dry. Southeast winds gusting near 25 kts currently will
diminish in the 03-06z time range, but southeast winds will
remain elevated at 10-15 kts all night. Winds on Friday are
expected to be weaker than those observed Thursday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
301 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
301 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 /201 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a 15% or less chance for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms between 4pm and sunset. Main hazard will be wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph but isolated hail can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat index values of 105 or higher will be possible on Saturday
across portions of south central Kansas Saturday, mainly in the
Medicine Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
915 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

KSZ061-062-230245-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
915 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

At 914 PM CDT/814 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles north of Syracuse, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hamilton and northwestern Kearny Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10169 3826 10118 3825 10115 3801 10164
      3815 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 228DEG 21KT 3811 10170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
940 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

KSZ043-062-230315-
Kearny KS-Scott KS-
940 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN KEARNY COUNTY THROUGH
1015 PM CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northeast of Kendall, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Kearny
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10145 3826 10113 3848 10113 3816 10111
      3802 10141 3814 10154 3817 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 227DEG 25KT 3814 10142

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
956 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

KSZ043-062-063-230400-
Finney KS-Kearny KS-Scott KS-
956 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 955 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Russell Springs to 15 miles
north of Deerfield. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Modoc around 1000 PM CDT.
  Scott State Lake around 1010 PM CDT.
  Scott City and Shallow Water around 1015 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Friend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10073 3815 10081 3813 10131 3827 10128
      3827 10112 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 258DEG 29KT 3876 10111 3819 10123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER