Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible this morning north, with a risk for
  severe storms producing 2 inch hail and damaging wind this
  afternoon, especially in the eastern counties.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms returning Sunday night
  and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The challenge for the forecast this afternoon is how the late
morning and afternoon plays out with respect to general
thunderstorm activity this morning, and then any resulting
severe storms this afternoon. Scattered high based thunderstorms
across northeast Colorado this morning may spread southeast
into west central Kansas, generally along a developing warm
front straddling the region northwest to southeast. Clouds and
early morning convection could temper the insolation over the
I-70 corridor , allowing strong differential surface heating
along and south of the boundary creating good environment for
additional severe convection in the afternoon. Ample shear for
supercells develops by mid afternoon and the HREF 0-3km SRH
increases to a broad 200-300 m2/s2 generally northeast of a
Scott City to dodge city and Greensburg line – maximizing around
Ellis-Rush and Stafford counties. This will help any high based
convection moving into the area to quickly take on supercell
characteristics, with very large hail (2 inches or larger in
diameter) becoming as much a risk as damaging wind. The
uncertainty is high with respect to convective initiation. The
HRRR trends to bring the convection from NW Kansas through the
I-70 corridor and into central Kansas before 18z (1 pm),
relegating any further convection tot he south of Kansas in the
panhandles. Other CAMS that do not present the same morning
solution of convection, allow for development in the mid to late
afternoon, presumably along the surface front anywhere between
the 283 and 83 corridor, generally north of highway 400. Those
areas being favored fro initiation while the CSU machine
learning forecasts paint the more favorable region of 15-30%
probability over the southeasternmost counties of the DDC area.

Based on the GFS and ECMWF ensemble multirun 24 hr QPF means,
the weekend still is favored to be overall hot and dry before
another chances for wetting rains Sunday night into Monday,
characterized by QPF amounts in the one to two tenths of an inch
run to run. NBM range of outcomes for Monday’s highs area the
lowest in the forecast with a 25th to 75th percentile range of
about 91 on the high side and 83 on the low side at Dodge City.
The mean high forecast trends upward from there through next
weekend to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

This activity is lending a little more confidence tot he HRRR
CAMS solution for which multi runs have shown robust convection
moving across the I-70 corridor, i.e. HYS vicinity by around mid
morning (14-17z). Most of the area north of LBL is in a slight
risk for severe weather this afternoon, for which supercell
storms could make 2 inch diameter hail and damaging winds. It is
possible if this morning convection spreads an outflow boundary
far enough south however, the afternoon convective initiation
might be mitigated.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
419 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
419 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 /319 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning (20-50%),
spreading from northwest Kansas into the I-70 to K-96 corridors,
bringing heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds from mid morning
through early afternoon. Additionally, a risk for afternoon
redevelopment with better potential for severe hail of 2 inch
diameter or greater and damaging winds. The favored severe risk
area of 15% coverage is north and east of a Scott City,
Garden City, Montezuma and Ashland line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additionally opportunity for thunderstorms are focused on Sunday
night and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected Today or Tonight, however
severe weather reports area appreciated.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
939 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 AM     Hail             6 S Scott State Lake    38.60N 100.91W
08/16/2024  M1.75 Inch       Scott              KS   Law Enforcement

&&

GT