Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
810 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible near the Oklahoma border
  Thursday night and early Friday morning.

- A brief shot of cooler, or should we say more seasonal,
  temperatures return to southwest Kansas Friday and Saturday.

- Another warming trend late this weekend and early next week
  will warm temperatures back into the triple digits.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Thunderstorms have remained well south, southwest and west of
SW KS this evening, with 3 small MCSs over the northeast Texas
panhandle (where infrared cloud tops have been as cold as -80C),
northeast New Mexico/NW Panhandles, and southeast Colorado.
Model guidance is doing a rather poor job of initializing and
forecasting this activity, but all activity has shown a
weakening trend over the past hour. Mesoanalysis shows a pool of
strong instability over southwest zones as of 8 pm, with MLCAPE
as high as 3000 J/kg, so additional updraft generation is
probable over the southwest zones through the night, as outflows
from previous storms interact with the moist/unstable
environment. SPC maintained marginal 5% hail/wind probability
overnight, and certainly some strong outflows cannot be ruled
out, but high end severe weather is not expected. Kept scattered
pops focused on the southern zones, adjacent to Oklahoma,
through the night.

Models show little thermal change in the lower atmosphere Friday
versus Thursday, so 90s will again prevail Friday afternoon.
Highest heat indices will top out near 100 briefly/locally at
peak heating Friday afternoon, which is below heat advisory
criteria, and no heat headlines are in effect for Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

As of 2pm this Thursday afternoon, radar already showed
convection already developing north of a surface boundary
across northeast New Mexico and portions of southeast Colorado,
where the CAMS indicates a 400-200 PVU anomaly near the right
entrance region of a 250mb jet, moving from northeast New Mexico
towards southwest Kansas. Additionally, 850mb to 700mb warm air
advection is occurring. Also across southwest Kansas, a narrow
band of elevated isolated thunderstorms is attempting to develop
in an area with some 700-500 wind convergence and weak
frontogenesis. Based on the current convection and mid-level
instability and shear, there will be low chances for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms late today across southwest
Kansas due this mid level forcing. However, the better chance
for thunderstorms will be this evening and early tonight as the
New Mexico upper wave moves into southwest Kansas. CAMS are in
good agreement with this scenario, keeping the opportunity for
convection near the right entrance region of the 250mb jet and
southwest of the 700mb wind convergence area. At this time, the
severe weather risk from these thunderstorms appears low,
although some wind gusts of 50 mph or greater and small hail
cannot be ruled out late today and early this evening.

Ensemble clusters today are showing good agreement with an
upper level ridge axis retrograding into the Western United
States through the weekend period, as an upper low located over
Minnesota earlier this morning moves south into the Ohio Valley.
As this upper low moves towards the Ohio Valley, an area of
high pressure at the surface will exit central Canada and move
into the mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Central
Plains.

Surface to 850mb easterly flow around this high pressure area
will spread cooler air into western Kansas late this week and
early this weekend, resulting in a period of cooler, or more
seasonal, temperatures for early August across southwest Kansas.
Short term ensembles show a standard deviation of less than 5C
in 850mb temperatures each evening through 00z Monday. During
this period, mean 850mb temperatures will range from 26 to 28C
at 00z Saturday, then fall back to 24 to 26°C by 00z Sunday.
This supports the latest NBM forecast, predicting highs in the
low to mid 90s early this weekend. If any adjustments are
needed, it might be to raise temperatures several degrees west
of Highway 283, as some ensemble clusters are beginning to show
warmer air spreading from eastern Colorado into far western
Kansas.

Late this weekend into early next week, all ensemble clusters
show a warming trend returning to southwest Kansas as the upper
high moves east and expands across the Rockies and into the
Central Plains. Given this, along with the mean 850mb
temperature trends and the ongoing low ensemble 90th to 10th
percentile spread (5C or less) in these temperatures across
southwest Kansas, there is no reason to dispute the current NBM
warming trend for the first half of next week.

Early next week, we will also be closely monitoring an upper
ridge developing near the west coast of British Columbia, as an
upper level trough drops south across western Canada towards the
northern Rockies. The latest ensemble clusters appear to show
at least three different solutions after 00z Wednesday,
resulting in low confidence (<30%) regarding the timing and
magnitude of our next cool down late next week. Currently,
50-60% of the ensemble clusters suggest the cold front will
cross southwest Kansas by 00z Friday. However, when examining
the 10th to 90th percentile spread in the 850mb temperatures,
there is a 10 to 15C difference extending from southern Kansas
to southern Nebraska. This indicates that even though the
majority of ensemble clusters (50-60%) suggest a cold frontal
passage on Thursday, the exact timing and extent of cooling
remain unclear.

In summary, confidence is high (50-60%) for another cool down
late next week, but confidence is low (<30%) regarding the
magnitude of this cool down.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with the possible
exception of convective impacts at LBL, or less likely, DDC
tonight. Radar and satellite imagery at 22z showed a large
thunderstorm complex over northeast New Mexico. 12z ARW
forecasts some of this activity to be near LBL at 03z Fri, and
included VCTS/CB mention in the LBL TAF accordingly. 18z NAM
also spreads activity near/south of DDC overnight, but it is
just as likely thunderstorms remain south of DDC, so kept this
TAF dry. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR will continue with light
winds, generally with an easterly component, through Friday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-
081-090.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ080-086>089.

&&

UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
216 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 /116 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat indices will be near or above 100F for all zones Thursday
afternoon, and in the 105-108F range in the Red Hills region and
our far east zones. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber County through 8pm CDT, and
a Heat Advisory is in effect for Seward, Meade, Clark, Comanche,
and Kiowa County through 8pm CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer

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