Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will move across southwest Kansas tonight, with
  best chances in far southwest Kansas. Large hail and damaging
  winds will accompany these storms.

- A cooler weather pattern will persist Wednesday through early
  next week, with highs 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.

- There are small chances for additional t-storms Wednesday and
  Thursday and better chances Friday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Low level, moist upslope flow will strengthen later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance embedded in the westerlies
approaches the high plains. Given weak capping, 2000-3000 j/kg
CAPE and marginally supportive 0-6 km bulk shear, an isolated
supercell or two could form by 5-6 pm across western Kansas. 0-1
km SRH values are low so that tornadoes are not favored aside
from any mesoscale or storm scale influences that could result
in brief tornadogenesis. Very large hail greater than 2" is
possible.

A larger cluster of storms will move into Kansas by 00-01z.
This convection will likely grow upscale quickly given high
dewpoint depressions and DCAPE values from 1100-1500 j/kg, with
damaging wind and small hail being the main concerns. Favored
locations for severe weather in the vicinity this evening
between 6 pm and midnight are along and south of a line from
Syracuse to Sublette to Meade to Englewood.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moist low level upslope flow will lead to moderate instability
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop on the favored
topographic regions of Colorado by late afternoon and then
propagate into western Kansas after 23z. There is a chance given
weak capping that an isolated cell or two will develop ahead of
the line across west central Kansas during the evening. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are marginally supportive of supercells with
very large hail. Storms will congeal into a cluster after 00z
upon entering Kansas and propagate southeastward through extreme
southwest Kansas, possibly as far east as Dodge City. Damaging
winds as high as 70 mph are possible for places like Elkhart,
Liberal, Ulysses and Meade. Locally heavy rain is possible, but
current thinking is that the convective cluster will be fast
moving enough given the westerlies and outflow that flooding
will not be a major concern (aside from isolated pockets).

A cooler regime is forecast through the weekend and into early
next week. There are small to medium chances for thunderstorms
both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons given the northwesterly
flow and weak capping inversion. The best chances for storms is
across far western Kansas where higher amounts of instability
will exist. However, the various ensemble means are not
supportive of widespread heavy wain Wednesday and Thursday, with
less than 10% chances for 24 hr rain exceeding 1" even across
the far southwest. High temperatures will be in the mid and
upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of shortwave troughs will move southward across the
central high plains late Friday through Sunday. Given the
meridional nature of the mid level flow, mid level capping will
continue to be weak so that chances for showers and
thunderstorms are medium to high. The EPS/GEFS and CMCE
ensemble means indicate 20-30% chances for greater than 1" of
rain for central Kansas, with lower probabilities farther west.
Ensemble mean rainfall is about .75" to 1" for the ECMWF and
CMCE and GEFS for the Friday to Sunday period. Expect highs in
the lower to mid 80s Friday through Sunday. The main upper
trough axis will to the south and east by Monday, with surface
high pressure building across the high plains so that rain
chances decrease markedly. Expect high temperatures in the upper
80s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Will be watching two areas for
complex of storms. The first area is for KHYS with storms moving
southward out of northern Kansas. The second area is for storms
located across Colorado. Best timing for KHYS is 01Z to 03Z and
03Z to 06Z timeframe for KGCK/KLBL/KDDC. The main threat with
the storms will be strong W to NW outflow of 35 kt to possibly
as high as 50-55 kt gusts in and near the TSRA. Outside of
storms, winds will be relatively weak NE to E 5-15 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
446 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
446 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 /346 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Increased moisture will contribute to a more widespread heavy
rain and severe thunderstorm risk This Evening and overnight.
Locally 3 inches of rain, golfball size hail and 60 mph 70 mph
wind gusts are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible any evening int he next several days
into early next week, however day to day predictability is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed Today or Tonight.

MR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Ransom                  38.64N 99.93W
07/16/2024  M72 MPH          Ness               KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Riga              38.94N 99.64W
07/16/2024  E68 MPH          Trego              KS   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

KSZ061-074-084-170115-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-Morton KS-
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HAMILTON...MORTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT/715 PM MDT/...

At 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles northeast of Two
Buttes to 8 miles west of Elkhart. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Elkhart and The Saunders Elevator around 720 PM CDT.
  Manter, Richfield, and Wilburton around 735 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Johnson City and
Rolla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM
CDT/midnight MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10204 3788 10157 3699 10156 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 284DEG 40KT 3775 10226 3699 10204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID