Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
213 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon across west central Kansas.

- Numerous t-storms are forecast for tonight and possibly lingering
into Sunday.

- After a cool spell Sunday and Monday and into mid next week,   hot
weather will return for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An upper level trough will continue to dig into the Plains through
Tuesday as tropical storm Beryl moves from the Gulf of Mexico,
through eastern Texas and dissolves into the Mississippi
Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level high will build across the
western United States and move into the Plains by the late part
of next week. Weak disturbances will move through the central
Plains tonight through the first part of next week increasing
storm chances across western Kansas. The first disturbance will
move through this evening.

Thunderstorms are expected to form along a trough of low pressure
this afternoon across northern Kansas and continue to build
southward into the forecast area this evening. The atmosphere will
be very unstable this afternoon with CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and
0-6 km shear over 30 knots. In addition, surface dewpoints will
reach into the upper 50s to low 60s across western Kansas. This will
increase probabilities of any storms that form to be severe.
Storms should remain linear decreasing the chance of a tornado,
but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern.
Scattered thunderstorms continue overnight but should remain
below severe limits. Heavy rain will also be possible with some
of these storms increasing risk of flooding if they train over
the same area. HREF ensembles show up to a 40 percent chance of
over an inch of rain across portions of the forecast area
through tonight. Skies will become mostly cloudy tonight with
lows dipping into the low to mid 60s.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue tomorrow, mainly across our
eastern zones.  As of now these storms do not look to be severe but
small hail and gusty winds can not be ruled out with the strongest
storms. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across western Kansas
through a majority of the day. Highs Sunday only look to reach into
the upper 70s to low 80s. The upper level trough axis will pass
across Kansas Monday. There is still a small chance of showers and
storms, especially across the southern tier of counties with the
remainder of the area staying dry. Temperatures will continue
to be cool for July, with 80s for highs. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday and wednesday as the axis of the upper level
trough moves east of the area, although an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm can not be ruled out. The remainder of the forecast
looks dry as upper level ridging builds eastward. Highs will
generally be in the 80s through the end of the work week then
into the 90s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with increasing mid level cloudiness
this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into
the overnight hours bringing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions.
Winds will generally be from the south through this evening,
gusting to over 20 knots this afternoon. Winds then shift to the
east to southeast overnight with a decrease in speed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
436 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070945-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
436 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 /336 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will form across west central Kansas and along I-70
late this afternoon and early this evening through 10 pm. These
storms could be severe with hail as large as 2" in diameter and
wind gusts as high as 70 mph. These storms will congeal into a
large cluster of storms late this evening and tonight, with small
hail, strong winds to 55 mph and locally heavy rains the main
issues after 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a good chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. It is too early to tell if these storms will be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.