Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday. Some storms will produce severe wind and hail, and
  some locally very heavy rainfall is expected. Some flooding
  issues are possible through Wednesday morning, with a Flash
  Flood Watch in effect.

- Much cooler behind a cold front on Wednesday, with
  temperatures in the 60s and 70s through the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Midday surface observations depicted an unusually strong cold
front for mid June standards, slowing its forward progress from
the northwest zones into NW KS. Ahead of the cold front, strong
south winds continued, gusting 40-45 mph. Strong moisture
convergence along the advancing boundary is expected to result
in explosive thunderstorm development along a roughly Hays-
Dodge City-Liberal line starting around 4 pm. Strong instability
and moderate wind shear, combined with the strong surface
boundary providing a source of low level vorticity, will result
in some supercell structures for the first few hours of the
event, roughly 4-7 pm. Large hail and tornadic/landspout
potential is expected from this activity, especially where 1)
storms can remain discrete longer, and 2) surface winds retain a
backed easterly component. Hatched probability for significant
hail > 2 inches and significant wind gusts > 75 mph was
maintained on the 1630z outlook, and with an increase in tornado
probability along that preferred HYS-DDC-LBL line 4-7 pm.
Moisture content is high, with dewpoints near or above 70,
resulting in low LCLs and very efficient heavy rainfall
production. Very rare to have such a glaring flash flood
potential/risk this far west in SW KS.

During the course of the evening, and through tonight and
sunrise Wednesday, a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) will
evolve over SW KS, along and north of the slowly moving frontal
boundary. Threat during the evening will rapidly transition
from hail/wind/tornadoes, to widespread heavy rainfall toward
midnight. In fact, areas of heavy rainfall are expected through
the night, and the inherited flash flood watch is warranted and
well placed. Expanded the flash flood watch southward to
include Haskell, Meade and Clark counties. QPF of 1-2 inches is
expected to be common, especially along and south of US 50, with
2-4 inches typical where training becomes established. Some CAM
solutions are printing out some crazy rainfall totals through
tonight; one should not place much emphasis on these exact
forecast amounts and locations. Rather, the message is clear:
locally intense, flooding rainfall is expected tonight through
Wednesday morning, with hydrologic concerns. Needless to say,
heavy rain wording was included in the grids and forecast
products. Residents are reminded to avoid driving through water
of unknown depth, especially tonight after sunset.

Additional rain and thunderstorms will regenerate through at
least the first half of Wednesday, as forcing for ascent
continues above the slowly advancing cold front. All models also
generate widespread low stratus, with east/northeast winds
establishing in the saturated boundary layer. Between
unseasonably strong cold advection, and the stratus, Wednesday
will be much cooler; the question is how much cooler. For
example, 12z MET/NAM guidance keeps GCK and the northwest zones
in the 50s all day Wednesday. GFS solutions show a more modest
cooling, with a reduction of about 5C at 850 mb. Reduced
afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 70s for many zones,
but suspect many will hold in the 60s.

A warming trend is expected Thursday through Saturday, as
temperatures quickly rebound in the strongest sunshine of the
year. Standing water and saturated topsoils from tonight's rain
will slow this process down significantly. Still, mid 90s are
expected to be common by Saturday afternoon. 12z GEFS ensemble
members show a 30% probability of temperatures > 100 across the
favored Red Hills southeast of DDC Saturday afternoon. It
stands to reason that rain chances will also dwindle away during
this time window.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Radar imagery at 22z showed a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms from near HYS to near GCK, as expected. Further
southward development of thunderstorms is expected through 00z,
impacting LBL/DDC. Primary risks from storms include outflow
winds over 50 kts, and excessive rainfall. An MCS is expected to
evolve from this activity overnight, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms, and associated reductions in flight categories.
Models remain consistent forecasting widespread stratus at all
airports behind frontal passage through 12z Wed, with widespread
reduced flight categories expected. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms, reduced ceilings, and east wind components will
continue much of Wednesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>080-087-088.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
312 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
312 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 /212 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe weather and flash flood risk later this afternoon and
tonight for much of southwest Kansas. Best chance of both will be
located roughly along and north of the highway 54 corridor. Severe
weather risk will have storms with hail up to 2 inches in diameter
and wind gusts 60 mph or greater. Tornado threat is low however
an isolated landspout around the cold front can't be ruled out.
Tonight flash flood risk increases as the storms will likely train
over the same areas and we could see rainfall amounts as high as 3
inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storms and flooding risk continue into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 PM today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Landspout        5 SW Montezuma          37.55N 100.51W
06/18/2024                   Gray               KS   Storm Chaser

&&

jdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
523 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KSZ030-031-045-046-182315-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
523 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...WESTERN RUSH AND ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Catherine to 7 miles southeast of Ness
City. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Hays, Bazine, Catherine, McCracken, Toulon, Emmeram, Munjor, and
  Antonino around 530 PM CDT.
  Schoenchen around 540 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Victoria and
Alexander.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, south central and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 9904 3835 9943 3833 10005 3907 9943
      3911 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 274DEG 11KT 3899 9921 3836 9985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
534 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     Hail             Ellis                   38.94N 99.56W
06/18/2024  M1.75 Inch       Ellis              KS   CO-OP Observer

&&

jdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KSZ031-045-046-065-190000-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL NESS...NORTH CENTRAL
PAWNEE...RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gorham to 8 miles south of Alexander.
Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bison, Rush Center, and Timken around 635 PM CDT.
  Otis around 640 PM CDT.
  Shaffer around 645 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, south central and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9904 3834 9903 3834 9954 3862 9963
      3897 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 293DEG 30KT 3886 9897 3834 9950

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Hail             Copeland                37.54N 100.63W
06/18/2024  M1.00 Inch       Gray               KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Satanta                 37.44N 100.99W
06/18/2024  M83 MPH          Haskell            KS   Mesonet

&&