Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect hot afternoons with strong south winds each day,
  Saturday through Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
  evening, with marginally severe wind and/or hail possible.

- A cold front is expected to bring cooler afternoons and
  increased shower and thunderstorm coverage at midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A weak shortwave trough was crossing SW KS at midday, with
associated lift generating broken midlevel clouds, and a few
showers and thunderstorms. Additional scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon through this evening, as
strong south winds maintain modest instability. CAM consensus
suggests coverage will favor the central/eastern zones through
evening, and that is how the chance category pops were arranged.
Moderate bouyancy and weak shear will keep storms rather
disorganized, but certainly some marginally severe wind/hail are
probable with the strongest cells through early evening, per SPC
marginal 5% wind/hail probability. South winds will gust to
near 35 mph this afternoon, with afternoon temperatures largely
in the lower 90s.

Elevated south winds will provide a warm early summer night
tonight, with all locations easily remaining in the 60s through
sunrise Sunday.

All models show strong warming Sunday, with a net warming of
5-6C at 850 mb over Saturday, supporting afternoon temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s. Given recent rainfall and a lack of
more pronounced SWly downslope, most locations will remain below
100 Sunday. South winds will again be strong; included the
90%ile of the NBM for the wind grids, with 20-30 mph winds
common. 990 mb low pressure near Denver will support a pressure
gradient supportive of 40 mph gusts. Most of Sunday will be dry
for most locations. 12z NAM develops strong instability Sunday
afternoon with MUCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg, but a triggering
mechanism is less than obvious. NAM suggests moisture
convergence along the surface trough/dryline may be sufficient
for initiation, favoring the western zones, but kept pops
necessarily now, near 20%, for now.

Synoptic longwave pattern changes little over North America
Monday and Tuesday, with broad troughing over the northern
Rockies, and very strong midlevel high pressure over the eastern
US. Strong southerly winds and moisture transport from the Gulf
of Mexico will be maintained. With instability and a dryline or
surface trough available, at least isolated thunderstorms are
probable at peak heating both Monday and Tuesday. Dewpoints will
easily hold in the 60s east of the dryline (along the KS/CO
border) each afternoon, supporting moderate to strong
instability, but forcing is nebulous, will rely on the
mesoscale, and is impossible to finetune this far out. This
synoptic pattern also favors strong to intense south winds, with
pressure gradients on Monday in particular supporting gusts as
high as 50 mph. Several 12z GEFS members and 12z GFS show
surface low pressure as low as 982 mb near Denver Monday
afternoon, resulting in a mslp gradient of near 15 mb across the
DDC CWA. Some of this stronger guidance suggests a high wind
watch may be required Monday afternoon/evening. Continued to
use the 90%ile of the NBM for these wind/wind gust grids. South
winds are expected to reach their peak intensity Monday, and
with the excellent mixing and a hot well mixed boundary layer,
temperatures will soar through the 90s Monday afternoon.

Models to varying degrees depict a cold front making progress
southward into/through Kansas Tuesday, which will 1) begin a
cooling trend in afternoon temperatures, 2) decrease the
magnitude of the winds, and 3) improve shower and thunderstorm
coverage. NBM shows a relative max in POPs on Tuesday night, and
these were retained, when MCS development is most probable with
the frontal boundary in the vicinity. 12z GEFS probability of
QPF > 0.10 inch is already as high as 80% during this favored
Tuesday night timeframe, and 12z MEX pops are already well into
the likely category. Behind this cold front and thunderstorm
complex, cooler afternoon temperatures in the 70s are expected
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Aviation weather will be fairly quiet, although at the onset of
this TAF period, widely scattered thunderstorms were occurring
across portions of southwest Kansas. None of the storms were
threatening any of the four terminals DDC, GCK, LBL, and HYS,
however we will continue to monitor DDC and HYS in particular
for possible amendment this evening. Otherwise, weather will be
fairly tranquil with south winds continuing along with VFR
flight category. Winds will increase in speed again on Sunday,
becoming sustained at around 20 to 25 knots at times with gusts
30 to 35 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 /248 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
this afternoon into the evening hours across much of southwest
Kansas. The coverage of thunderstorm activity is forecast to be
isolated to widely scattered in nature with the main severe
weather risk being large hail to half dollar size and damaging
wind gusts to around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is also a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across mainly far
southwest and far west central Kansas on Sunday late afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorm chances then resume late Tuesday into
Wednesday as a fairly strong cold front pushes into western
Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storms spotters may be needed late in the day for severe weather
reports both late this afternoon and evening and Sunday late
afternoon and evening.

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