Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- CAP/EML has strengthened, severe storm coverage less than
  previously thought and shifted NW.

- Northwest/north counties from Lakin to Scott City to Hays
  still under a threat of severe thunderstorms tonight.

- Drier weather Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Mesoscale discussion

Towering cumulus along the dryline positioned from the west
Texas panhandle through southwest Kansas from Elkhart to Lakin
and north to the warm front along I-70 is increasing our
confidence of seeing some isolated thunderstorm development over
the next couple of hours. With the 19Z balloon at DDC showing
34 kt 0-6 km shear and 3200 J/kg MUCAPE and steep mid level
lapse rates we will have plenty of instability and shear for
thunderstorms to access once the break the strong cap that is
place. Hodographs are showing from the southerly flow at the
surface to the westerly winds aloft a mainly straight sounding
which would suggest a good environment for large to giant hail
with any discrete storms. We will also have to monitor for a
tornado threat after 7 pm with the low level jet forecast to
increase and the hodographs in the lowest 0-1 km becoming more
curved with height.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

We did a special severe weather balloon (RAOB) launched at 1:30 pm
CDT. The cap/EML has strengthen over Dodge City. The 700 hPa temperature
on the special RAOB is 9.9C, up from 8.4C this morning. FYI, 8.6C
is at the 90th percentile for KDDC. This EML is quite strong/pronounced
across southwest Kansas. As far as warming up and breaking this cap,
that remains to be seen. Sfc temperatures have warmed into the mid
an upper 80s across far southwest Kansas. But this warming is associated
with some SSW downslope drier air advection, so this complicates
that scenario.

Sfc analysis shows a stationary boundary draped across southern Trego
county SE south of Great Bend. A sfc low pressure center is located
across east-central Colorado. A dryline is located just east of the
Kansas/Colorado state line. The most interesting/most severe storms
will be located at the intersection of the dryline and stationary
boundary. Right now, have the highest confidence of the most likely
chance of supercells in the Scott City area and a county of two surrounding
Scott county.

Where is the synoptic trof driving all this weather. Satellite water
vapor shows this feature was located just west of the four corners
region. The combination of the late arrival of the synoptic trof
and the strong cap clearly illustrates the concern that the severe
threat has probably shifted mainly to our NW counties and into NW
Kansas.

Taking a look at the models, the RRFS and FV3 are doing the worst
and were not considered. They are too cool/weak on the EML/cap, cooling
aloft and too aggressive on convective development. The HRRR and
the 3 km NAM seem to be doing the best at initializing the thermo
profile and were heavily biased to. WoFS was having technical problems
and was not updating anymore. The bottom line, do not be surprised
that at least 75% of the FA now seems less storm activity.

The main focus is from Lakin to Scott City to WaKeeney and Hays.
The cap holding strong looks like a more likely scenario for areas
SE of that area. As far as threats are concerned, this is obviously
driven down to the mesoscale and the analysis of it. Interests should
be focused on the intersection of those mentioned boundaries from
Sharon Springs, down to Scott City and over to Ransom. Our special
RAOB shows about 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SB/MUCAPE. 0-6 bulk shear was
34 knots, at the very low end of the spectrum for supercells. So
that is the current state of atmosphere, how about mid to late afternoon
and evening?

The stronger forcing associated with the synoptic UL trof is not
expected to strengthen until 00Z/7 pm tonight. Visible satellite
imagery shows a CU field currently located across eastern Colorado,
so that is the area to watch first. Storms mays also develop as moisture
and sfc convergence increases along the front up north. Again, there
are two significant fly in the ointments right now. A very strong
cap and a later arriving synoptic trof. Regardless of whatever a
CAM shows, you simply cannot ignore this meteorology.

As far as threats are concern, have the highest confidence of 2 to
3" hail across the NW counties should supercells develop. The tornado
threat should mainly be confined to the intersection of the dryline
and stationary front. The bottom line for tonight, it appears the
threats are shifting NW and that the cap will most likely win this
event with a reduced probability of severe thunderstorms for
the area outside of the area mentioned (not the NW counties).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Dry air advection is expected Friday. The net result is a dry forecast,
continued drought, and warm highs. The next synoptic low/trof is
not expected until Saturday. Continue to see the trend that has been
with us for months... southwest Kansas getting dryslotted and missing
out on storm activity. Cannot rule out severe thunderstorms in
the far eastern zones near Pratt and Medicine Lodge Saturday evening.
The rest of the FA looks more doubtful. This weather pattern trend
of missing out continues. Our drought has gotten worse and unfortunately
it looks like very low chances for improvement with the brunt of
the thunderstorm action east of much of the FA. The rest of the long
term period looks fairly warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Short term concern is watching storms developing west of the terminals.
Right now, have the highest confidence of KGCK being impacted by
tsra first, followed by KHYS. This is a formidable cap in place,
so it remains unclear how far east these storms will make it to KDDC
or KLBL. +TSRA with large gr and outflows winds > 50 kt cannot be
ruled out tonight with these storms. Otherwise, SE to S winds 15-25
kt will continue. For tomorrow, a boundary will move through with
the southerly winds becoming SW to W as the day continues.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

UPDATE...Tatro
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
501 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 /401 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Very
large hail is possible with the strongest storms, and possibly a
tornado.

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast for extreme
southwest Kansas today. See the latest fire weather message
(TOPRFWDDC) for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening
over south central Kansas. Very large hail is possible with the
strongest storms, and possibly a tornado.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for much of
southwest Kansas for Saturday. Strong southwest winds and low
humidity are forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             7 N Richfield           37.37N 101.77W
04/25/2024  M1.25 Inch       Morton             KS   Storm Chaser

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Hail             13 NW Manter            37.68N 102.02W
04/25/2024  M1.75 Inch       Stanton            KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             7 WSW Syracuse          37.94N 101.87W
04/25/2024  E1.00 Inch       Hamilton           KS   Public

&&

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