Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
436 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible southeast of Dodge
  City Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- The hottest day so far this young summer season is expected
  Wednesday.

- After a dry Wednesday and Thursday, shower and thunderstorm
  probabilities increase again over the coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Midnight infrared satellite imagery reveals a quiet night
across SW KS with a mainly clear sky. Surface observations
depict uniform light SEly winds, continuing to maintain
dewpoints well into the 60s. With moisture advection in place,
and plenty of standing water remaining from the last two nights
of MCSs, the boundary layer will reach saturation through
sunrise Tuesday, with widespread stratus and areas of fog. Will
need to monitor for the need for a dense fog advisory for the
Tuesday morning commute, with reduced visibility most likely
over the central and southeast zones. A mild and muggy sunrise
is expected, with temperatures in the 60s and relative humidity
near 100%.

We are now experiencing the strongest sunshine of the year, as
such any fog or stratus will dissolve rapidly Tuesday morning,
no later than 10 am. Winds will trend N/NEly Tuesday, and
modestly elevated, with gusts near 30 mph, strongest along the
preferred US 83 corridor during the midday hours. Behind this
wind shift/surface trough axis/cold front, models show no cold
air advection, typical of June. Afternoon temperatures will be
commonly in the upper 80s. 00z NAM develops strong instability
again along/ahead of this trough, focusing on the southeast
zones at peak heating, with CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and
dewpoints in mid/upper 60s. Feel most convection will remain in
WFO Wichita/Norman's CWA, but enough models including 00z ECMWF
suggest some development near the DDC/ICT CWA border to justify
minimal pops for the eastern zones. Any updraft with access to
the high instability will be capable of large hail, thus SPC 5%
marginal wind/hail probability across/near Barber county.

All chances for rainfall or thunderstorms will end Wednesday,
with strong height rises/subsidence overspreading SW KS. Models
remain consistent with the core of the mid level anticyclone
near 592 dm over New Mexico 7 pm Wednesday. Models show 6-7C of
warming at 850 mb, and when coupled with gentle SWly downslope,
afternoon temperatures will soar to the mid 90s. Evaporation of
standing water is expected to shave temperatures down 1-2
degrees. 00z GEFS probability of 2m T > 90 is 100% all zones,
but the probability of 2m T > 100 degrees is 0%. Still, the
hottest day so far this young summer season is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The strong 593 dm midlevel high remains firmly in control
Thursday, centered over New Mexico, with a further increase in
heights over SW KS. Despite this, a weak cool front will supply
easterly upslope wind components, keeping afternoon
temperatures restricted to the upper 80s and lower 90s. NBM
chance category pops favoring the southwest zones Thursday night
appear too wet and overdone, given proximity of the upper high
and strong subsidence.

A large portion of the midlevel high retreats southward into
Texas Friday, opening up more established NWly midlevel flow and
an uptick in shower/thunderstorm chances. SEly flow will be well
established, maintaining an influx of dewpoints well into the
60s and moderate to high instability. Coupled with the
directional shear, organized storms and some severe weather
appear probable Friday afternoon/evening. NBM chance pops were
accepted.

A rather strong cold front for June standards is expected at
some point over the weekend, in response to an amplifying PNA
synoptic pattern over North America, with ridging building over
the Great Basin, and persistent troughing over the Great Lakes.
00z MEX/GFS guidance shows this, with highs reduced to the 70s
Sunday. NBM's chance category pops are certainly warranted
Saturday with the cold front passage, but feel the NBM is too
wet Sunday as the cold front pushes well into Texas, delivering
a cooler/drier/more stable airmass. Deterministic guidance is
about 10 degrees cooler than NBM next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Surface observations at 0930z Tue showed light south to
southeast winds in a very moist boundary layer. Moisture
advection and upslope flow has resulted in widespread IFR
stratus at the airports. Largely IFR stratus ceilings are
expected to prevail through 15z Tue, although flight categories
will bounce down to LIFR or up to MVFR at times. Some reductions
in visibility in BR/FG are expected through 15z Tue, but
widespread dense fog is not expected. All fog and stratus will
dissolve no later than 18z Tue, followed by VFR/SKC Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A cold front is expected to provide a
N/NEly wind shift to the airports around 15z Tue, followed by
N/NE wind gusts of 22-27 kts, with the strongest winds at
GCK/LBL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
239 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-050745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
239 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 /139 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tuesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible southeast of Dodge
City Tuesday afternoon and evening. Large hail is likely from any
storm that develops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible southeast of Dodge City
Tuesday evening.

Turner

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