Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Dodge City, KS

893 
WWUS53 KDDC 020227
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
927 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSC051-020245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-240602T0245Z/
Ellis KS-
927 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY...

At 927 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Antonino,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
  Hays, Antonino and Munjor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9920 3876 9947 3883 9956 3899 9934
      3879 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 249DEG 15KT 3882 9943 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
529 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A severe thunderstorm complex is expected to roll across
  roughly the southwest 2/3rds of our area this afternoon and
  evening, posing mainly a damaging wind gust threat.

- Another chance of severe storms exists on Sunday, however
  coverage is expected to be much lower.

- Precipitation chances persist into early next work week, but
  begin to diminish by Wednesday as upper level ridging builds
  out west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
a rather low-amplitude synoptic pattern is in place, with a
weak shortwave trough over the far western CONUS and a weak
shortwave ridge over the southern plains, resulting in mostly
zonal flow across the central Rockies into the central plains.
As these features continue to shift east this afternoon and
evening, weak vorticity lobes cresting the shortwave ridge will
aid in thunderstorm initiation from far southeast CO to the
Syracuse/Johnson City area by 21Z. Latest guidance/HREF
indicate this activity will expand in coverage and intensity,
and organize into a severe linear convective system within an
environment characterized by at least 1500-2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE
and 30-40 kts of bulk shear as it rolls across roughly the
southwestern 2/3rds of our CWA. Given dewpoint temperatures in
the 50s and temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s, DCAPE will
increase into the 1200-1600 J/Kg range, suggesting the primary
severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, large hail
will also be possible, especially during the early stages of
convection. Thunderstorm activity may linger well into the
overnight hours as a few CAMs depict back-building, but should
clear southwest KS by sunrise Sunday morning.

Daytime Sunday, short range guidance suggest the weak upper
level trough out west will dampen as it emerges onto the central
plains. Ahead of this weak wave, a lee cyclone in far southeast
CO will deepen to around 996-mb, supporting southerly winds to
increase across southwest KS into the 20-30 mph range with gusts
of 35-40 mph. Concurrently, 850-mb temperatures will rise by 3-5
degrees C, translating to afternoon high reaching the upper 80s
to mid 90s. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, especially west of US-283. Although, weak
shear and even larger dewpoint depressions will limit overall
coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
indicate nearly zonal flow will be in place atop the central
plains, with the main belt of the subtropical jet spread out
across the northern CONUS. Chances for precipitation will exist
for much of the area Monday and Tuesday as weak vorticity lobes
emanating from the Desert Southwest combine with a strong upper
level trough moving east across the northern plains, supporting
GEFS/ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.01" generally in the
50-80% range. But by Wednesday, ensembles suggest the first
sign of the summertime upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest/Intermountain West will appear and continue to build
through the end of the long term period. This pattern will
effectively eliminate all precipitation chances owing to strong
DNVA overspreading the central and southern plains. Otherwise,
afternoon temperatures will mainly be above normal, with highs
reaching the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Convection,and possibly severe, should be an immediate threat at
the LBL terminals for the 00z TAF set. At 22 UTC several
supercells are already mature over extreme southeast Colorado.
These storms are forecast by several of the HREF members,
included the HRRR to develop into one or more multi-cell
clusters with widespread severe thunderstorm wind risk. It is
likely each terminal will see some period of convection for
around and hour or two over the next 3 to 5 hours. The southwest
terminals are almost certain to see heavy rain low vsby (around
1 mile in +TSRA) and lowered ceilings this evening. The
development of low level status is not particularly high –

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 /248 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon (after
5pm) and early tonight. The main hazards will be wind gusts up to
65 mph and 1 to 2 inch hail, mainly before sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Sunday. Hail up to quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated but rainfall reports are
encouraged.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
710 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSZ063-076-077-020100-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Haskell KS-
710 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FINNEY...GRAY AND
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 709 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 10 miles southeast of Plymell, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Finney,
Gray and northeastern Haskell Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 10096 3777 10078 3799 10024 3748 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 279DEG 22KT 3772 10071

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
802 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSZ077-078-087-020130-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Ford KS-
802 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FORD...NORTHEASTERN
MEADE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 802 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Copeland, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Ford,
northeastern Meade and southeastern Gray Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 10063 3767 10038 3766 10000 3720 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 284DEG 19KT 3747 10049

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
818 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSZ085-086-020200-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
818 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SEWARD AND EASTERN
STEVENS COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hugoton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Woods around 835 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10138 3732 10136 3737 10084 3700 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 269DEG 25KT 3713 10131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
819 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             Shields                 38.62N 100.45W
06/01/2024  E1.00 Inch       Lane               KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Reported by Fire Department.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
853 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSZ086-087-020230-
Seward KS-Meade KS-
853 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SEWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEADE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 853 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Liberal, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Seward and
southwestern Meade Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 10103 3721 10072 3700 10023 3700 10099
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 304DEG 26KT 3706 10087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
903 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KSZ030-031-020245-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
903 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TREGO AND
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Cedar Bluff, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Antonino around 915 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Hays, Toulon and
Munjor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9961 3880 9968 3898 9934 3872 9914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 249DEG 26KT 3877 9957

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID