Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Dodge City, KS

051 
WWUS83 KDDC 131908
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
208 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024


KSZ087>089-132015-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240314T0000Z/
Meade-Clark-Comanche-
208 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

The latest wind forecast no longer calls for sustained or frequent
wind gusts in excess of 25 mph for multiple hours this afternoon.

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1052 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather danger potential for the Red Hills
  Wednesday afternoon.

- Colder air starts to arrive on Thursday with a second round of
  colder air on Sunday.

- Rain chances will mainly be along our northern border on
  Wednesday and southern border Friday but most of the area
  looks to stay dry for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

18Z observations show a departing 500 mb shortwave located in
central Kansas with a boundary layer low pressure center in
north central Kansas. The tight pressure gradient has led to
some gusty winds through the morning and early afternoon however
a surface high is developing in eastern Colorado and this should
subside the winds as we approach sunset tonight.

Overall for tonight the surface high will pass through western
Kansas keeping the winds light and variable for the start of the
night and then eventually switching to the southeast by morning.
Mid level clouds will be on the increase through the night as a
500-700 mb shortwave approaches from central Colorado. This
shortwave will also lead to developing a surface low and trough
in southeast Colorado. Lows will range from the lower to mid
40s.

Wednesday the main forecast challenge will be where the surface
low tracks and where the strongest southwest winds and driest
air sets up in the afternoon for the fire danger. HREF ensembles
and specifically the HRRR have the farthest north track which
would put the Red Hills in the stronger southwest winds by mid
to late afternoon and high fire danger between 1-6 PM. Other CAM
models such as the ARW and the latest NSSL have much lighter
winds with a more southern track of the surface low. While the
fire danger confidence is high in Oklahoma and Texas there is
still some uncertainty as to how high the fire danger will be in
the Red Hills due to the wind forecast. As a result a fire
weather watch is in effect and the next forecast update should
have better confidence if an upgrade is needed. Elsewhere north
of the low along the I-70 corridor will be socked in with clouds
for much of the morning with light drizzle possible. Clouds
should quickly erode by afternoon with the vicinity of the
surface low and warm front. Some CAMs have convection breaking
out between 21-00Z along and north of I-70 and with a 30% chance
of >750 CAPE and >30 kt shear I added thunder wording for areas
along the I-70 corridor. The better lift along the warm front
and 700 mb shortwave looks to be farther north into Goodland's
and Hastings forecast zones. Highs will range from around 70 in
our north to northwest zones to the lower 80s in the Red Hills.

Wednesday night the surface to 850 mb low will be slow to
progress to the east so this should delay the stronger winds and
colder air from the cold front until closer to sunrise Thursday
morning. Rain chances will continue in the vicinity of the low
to the north and northwest which would put areas from Syracuse
to Hays in a slight chance of rain (20%). The better lift and
dynamics from the progged position of the low will be located in
northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. Overnight temperatures
should fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Cold air advection and strong winds will be the trend for
Thursday as the surface to 700 mb low moves into Iowa by late
afternoon. Long range ensemble all show 850 mb temps cooling
through the day and with cloudy skies we should see much diurnal
heating. Went NBM10th for highs for our northern and central
zones which would put us in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The far
southeast could see a little more sun and delayment of the
coldest air so they will be a bit warmer.

The main feature in the long term will be a cut off low in
Arizona and the main westerlies in the northern plains to Great
Lakes. A 700 mb shortwave will eject from the cut off low Friday
into early Saturday. The forecast track of the system will keep
the majority of the better lift in eastern New Mexico through
west Texas so only slight POPs of 20% will be possible in our
far southwest zones for Friday.

Rest of the long term should stay dry as the cut off low will
stay mainly in Arizona through next Monday and any ejection of
shortwaves will also stay to the south. Lower level winds will
also stay mainly out of the north to northwest so no real sign
of gulf moisture will come into Kansas. Sunday will have
another push of colder air as ensembles have a strong longwave
trough moving through the northern plains Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning. Outside of some gusty winds and colder
air the lack of moisture will keep us dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with varying amounts
of mid and high clouds. Through Wednesday, winds will be
relatively light, but highly variable in direction, as low
pressure swings through SW KS. SW gusts in excess of 20 kts are
most probable at LBL after 18z Wed behind the departing surface
low. Some models suggests showers and thunderstorms near HYS by
00z Thu, but with low confidence kept the HYS TAF dry for now.
Increasing N/NE winds are expected 06-12z Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Elevated to near critical fire weather danger will be the case
during the afternoon on Wednesday for areas mainly south and
east of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. Highest
probability of wind gusts over 25 mph and relative humidity
values falling to 15% or less will be along the Oklahoma border
from Meade to Barber counties between 1-6 PM. The winds will be
highly dependent on the track of a surface low moving through
northwest and north central Kansas and if the track is farther
south the winds will be much lighter.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ087>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
232 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-130745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
232 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 /132 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tuesday.

An elevated risk of wildfire spread continues Tuesday, with
continued warm afternoon temperatures and low humidity. Northwest
winds will be gusty through midday, before diminishing during the
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be required Tuesday.