Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1147 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon across west central Kansas.

- Numerous t-storms are forecast for tonight and possibly lingering
into Sunday.

- After a cool spell Sunday and Monday and into mid next week,   hot
weather will return for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An upper level trough will continue to dig into the Plains through
Tuesday as tropical storm Beryl moves from the Gulf of Mexico,
through eastern Texas and dissolves into the Mississippi
Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level high will build across the
western United States and move into the Plains by the late part
of next week. Weak disturbances will move through the central
Plains tonight through the first part of next week increasing
storm chances across western Kansas. The first disturbance will
move through this evening.

Thunderstorms are expected to form along a trough of low pressure
this afternoon across northern Kansas and continue to build
southward into the forecast area this evening. The atmosphere will
be very unstable this afternoon with CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and
0-6 km shear over 30 knots. In addition, surface dewpoints will
reach into the upper 50s to low 60s across western Kansas. This will
increase probabilities of any storms that form to be severe.
Storms should remain linear decreasing the chance of a tornado,
but large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern.
Scattered thunderstorms continue overnight but should remain
below severe limits. Heavy rain will also be possible with some
of these storms increasing risk of flooding if they train over
the same area. HREF ensembles show up to a 40 percent chance of
over an inch of rain across portions of the forecast area
through tonight. Skies will become mostly cloudy tonight with
lows dipping into the low to mid 60s.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue tomorrow, mainly across our
eastern zones.  As of now these storms do not look to be severe but
small hail and gusty winds can not be ruled out with the strongest
storms. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across western Kansas
through a majority of the day. Highs Sunday only look to reach into
the upper 70s to low 80s. The upper level trough axis will pass
across Kansas Monday. There is still a small chance of showers and
storms, especially across the southern tier of counties with the
remainder of the area staying dry. Temperatures will continue
to be cool for July, with 80s for highs. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday and wednesday as the axis of the upper level
trough moves east of the area, although an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm can not be ruled out. The remainder of the forecast
looks dry as upper level ridging builds eastward. Highs will
generally be in the 80s through the end of the work week then
into the 90s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Active weather will continue across southwest Kansas for Sunday
morning as periodic showers and thunderstorms will lead to VCTS
for all terminals through 00Z Monday. Greatest probability of
storms will be around GCK and DDC as storms are already in the
vicinity of both terminals as of 05Z. Storms could contain brief
heavy rainfall which will reduce surface visibilities. Cloud
ceilings will hover between VFR and MVFR depending on the
location of the thunderstorms before returning to predominately
VFR after 00Z. Wind direction will be variable through 12Z due
to the numerous thunderstorms and outflow boundaries.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ043>046-062>066-
077>081-087>090.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
436 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070945-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
436 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 /336 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will form across west central Kansas and along I-70
late this afternoon and early this evening through 10 pm. These
storms could be severe with hail as large as 2" in diameter and
wind gusts as high as 70 mph. These storms will congeal into a
large cluster of storms late this evening and tonight, with small
hail, strong winds to 55 mph and locally heavy rains the main
issues after 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a good chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. It is too early to tell if these storms will be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1018 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW La Crosse         38.56N 99.33W
07/06/2024  M65 MPH          Rush               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW1214 La Crosse.

&&

JRJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1026 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ078>081-088>090-070400-
Pratt KS-Clark KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Comanche KS-Ford KS-
1026 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN FORD...KIOWA...BARBER...
COMANCHE...SOUTHWESTERN PRATT...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND CLARK
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1026 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Pretty Prairie to 9 miles
northeast of Selman. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Medicine Lodge and Aetna around 1035 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9999 3790 9989 3791 9937 3717 9835
      3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 299DEG 26KT 3776 9813 3692 9941

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1027 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ065-066-079>081-090-070400-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
1027 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN
BARBER...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...STAFFORD...PRATT AND SOUTHEASTERN
EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1026 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Pretty Prairie to 9 miles
northeast of Selman. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Isabel around 1030 PM CDT.
  Medicine Lodge around 1040 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 9837 3790 9942 3826 9866 3826 9847
      3739 9846 3738 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 299DEG 26KT 3776 9813 3692 9941

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RUSSELL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1035 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Hail             3 S Ingalls             37.78N 100.46W
07/06/2024  M1.00 Inch       Gray               KS   Public

            Report made via social media.

&&

JRJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090-070430-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
Comanche KS-
1105 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KIOWA...BARBER...COMANCHE...
SOUTHERN PAWNEE...STAFFORD...PRATT AND EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 1130
PM CDT...

At 1104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
producing gusty winds across a large area of southcentral Kansas.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and mesonet indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Haviland, Byers, and Neola around 1110 PM CDT.
  Pratt, Iuka, Cullison, and Wellsford around 1115 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 9956 3826 9902 3825 9847 3739 9846
      3738 9835 3700 9835 3700 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 339DEG 24KT 3770 9916 3797 9850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1136 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

KSZ080-081-088>090-070530-
Pratt KS-Clark KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
1136 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KIOWA...BARBER...COMANCHE...PRATT
AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Greensburg to 8 miles south of Buttermilk.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Coldwater, Wilmore, and Buttermilk around 1140 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Belvidere and
Croft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9980 3746 9970 3746 9953 3747 9952
      3773 9945 3773 9899 3764 9847 3746 9846
      3700 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 309DEG 17KT 3762 9924 3700 9939

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RUSSELL